ESPN 'Heat index' has Clemson trending up, Arizona trending down

Mar 27, 2024, 9:45 AM

The sixth-seeded Clemson men's basketball team takes on two-seed Arizona in Los Angeles on Thursday (7:09 EDT), and ESPN's March Madness Heat Index is high on the Tigers this tournament.

"The Lobos had much better metrics than the typical 11-seed, leaving the Tigers as slim favorites according to SRS. This, in turn, made Clemson's 21-point victory over New Mexico one of the most impressive blowouts of a good opponent in the tourney to date. Then, Clemson turned around and faced No. 3-seeded Baylor, the nation's 13th-best team by SRS and a four-point favorite over the Tigers in the ratings. Against those expectations, Clemson's 72-64 win against the Bears -- which saw the Tigers lead by double-digits for most of the second half before Baylor closed the gap in the final five minutes -- also stood out, making the Tigers our biggest statistical overachiever of the 2024 men's tourney."

Per ESPN's stats, Chase Hunter is close to double-digits above his expected game score for NCAA Tournament games (17.1 game score; plus-8.6 vs. his expected total) after totaling 21 and 20 points so far with six assists in each game.

"Hunter ranks 13th in the tournament in average Game Score so far, and every player above him on the list -- from Purdue's Zach Edey to UConn's Tristen Newton -- had a significantly higher mark than him during the season overall."

Arizona is listed among the teams trending down from expectations.

"It's hard to be too down on any team that punches its ticket to the Sweet 16, but Arizona has had a few moments that make us question whether it can live up to expectations as a championship squad. Against theoretically overmatched No. 15 seed Long Beach State in Round 1, the Cats nonetheless trailed with 2:38 remaining in the first half. Arizona's ensuing 24-2 run helped put the game away, but their final plus-20 victory margin was lower than we'd expect from SRS. The next round, No. 7 seed Dayton stubbornly stayed in the game, pulling within three points with 11:40 to go before Arizona asserted itself again. We have to wonder whether these Wildcats' habit of playing with their food will eventually come back to bite them."

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/39810380/sweet-16-march-madness-womens-mens-heat-index-ncaa-tournament ($)

SRS (Simple Rating System) https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/about/glossary.html#srs

flag link

military_tech

thumb_down