Comparison of CFP top 10 by game by QBR...

Dec 2, 2022, 4:27 PM

I hesitated to post this because I'm not fully confident that the ESPN QBR metric is an exact science. But after digging into this a little I made the following chart where I highlighted all games played by the CFP top 10 teams and a few extras (UNC, LSU, and FSU). The yellow highlighted games are the ones where a QB had a QBR of less than 55. From what I've seen a QBR rating of 55 to 59 is "average", 60 - 65 is "good" and anything above 66 is "very good".

Ultimately the QBR metric seems to confirm what we already know - DJ has had way too many games (half of our games - 6) below average to terrible. Most of the rated teams only have one or two games where their QB's dipped into the below average QBR category. Some like UGA, USC, and Ohio State have no games with below average QBR ratings.

Another tidbit that could be affecting DJ's QBR rankings is the play of our receivers. Qualkenbush rattled of an interesting catch rate statistic (ratio of catches to targets) today for anyone who has been targeted 10 or more times:

RB's:
Mafah - 73%
Shipley - 86%

TE's:
Allen - 70%
Briningstool - 66%

WR's:
Ngata - 52%
EJ Williams - 32%
B. Collins - 56%
Spector - 48%
Randall - 30%
A. Williams - 82%

Catch rate doesn't necessarily mean all the targets were catchable balls but it does paint a grim picture for our WR group and our passing game overall. With the exception of Antonio Williams, about half the time a ball is thrown to our starting receivers we can expect they aren't going to catch it.

So I'm starting to believe our passing game has become a self licking ice cream cone of "bad". Meaning - both DJ's and the WR groups inconsistencies are feeding into worse and worse performance. In other words - when DJ manages to throw a catchable ball to a receiver they don't catch it or when a receiver is open DJ doesn't get the ball anywhere near them.

One thing is for sure - Dabo and crew have got to fix our passing game if we hope to once again compete at the highest level.