Ball State returns several key starters to last years team. Is this a good or a bad thing?
Wenning is a third year starter with a lot of experience. He has played 2 top 25 teams and 5 AQ teams in his previous two seasons. Ball St is 1-4 against AQ schools with the lone win coming against Indiana last season 27-20.
The Cardinals also return their top two sack specialists LB Freeman and DT Ollie. They combined for 10 of the Cardinals 16 sacks last season.
They also return second year starting RB Jahwan Edwards. As a starter he racked up 786 yards on 178 carries with 11 going for touchdowns.
Ball St. has become more balanced over the last few years. They spread out their attack. Against EMU this past Thursday, Ball State had 7 different receivers catch a pass. Wenning is not a dual threat quarterback but does have the ability to scramble if needed.
However, Ball State returns only three receivers with 15 or more receptions from the 2011 squad. Smith, Ryan and Fakes combined for only 82 receptions last season.
Last season the Ball State defense was close to awful. They allowed 2712 Rushing Yards and 3412 Passing Yards (6124 yards total offense) against 9 Non AQ and 3 AQ schools. Ball State also let opponents convert on 91/172 third downs (53%).
Against EMU on Thursday, Freeman nor Ollie had a sack and recorded just 1 solo tackle amongst 11 ast tackles.
THE GAME
The Tigers didn't reveal a lot of new additions to the offenst this past week against Auburn and I don't see it happening here. Ellington, Howard, and Hot Rod should see about 45-60 carries. Based off last season and the game against EMU, Ellington should have 150+ yards with 3 touchdowns. Either Howard or Rod should top 100 yards rushing as well. Tajh will probably only play a half and Cole Stoudt will get some much needed reps.
The Cardinals will move the ball but I believe turnovers will do them in early. Wenning is a reliable quarterback but not against top competition. He is 74/124 for 520 yda against AQ schools with 2 TD and 6 INT.
Predictions Score: 51-13
Ellington: >20 Carries for >150 yds 2 TD Howard: >12 Carries for > 65 yds 1 TD Hot Rod: >8 carries for <50 yards 1 TD
Tajh: Better than 65% completion percentage for > 200 yrds in 2-3 quarters. 2 TD
Receivers: At least 6 players should get a reception.