Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Iowa State projections |
Increased opt-outs, coaching moves and transfers have made the bowl season an even tougher moving target to hit on predictions — and Orlando’s Cheez-It Bowl is no different.
The toughest blow for Iowa State was announced over the weekend with stalwart running back Breece Hall opting to begin his NFL draft preparation instead of taking on the No. 18 Tigers on Dec. 29 (5:45 p.m. ET/ESPN). Hall has accounted for exactly half of Iowa State’s offensive touchdowns this season (23) and also 33.8% of the total yards, dominating the Cyclones’ rushing statistics (72.8% of yards/80% of the TDs). The next-highest tally of carries and rushing yards for an Iowa State running back comes with sophomore Jirehl Brock and his 23 attempts for 132 yards with one touchdown. Clemson has had its fair share of run-ins with the transfer portal since September, while Iowa State is at 12 departures since just November (nine on defense alone). Throw in Clemson’s coordinators shifts -- and the season to this point may not foreshadow much next week, but here’s how the teams size up by the 2021 metrics so far: Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks (No. 8 overall): 65 | 3 | 7 ISU SP+ ranks (No. 19 overall): 28 | 31 | 34 CU FPI ranks (No. 10 overall): 79 | 4 | 19 ISU FPI ranks (No. 9 overall): 21 | 16 | 93 -- Despite Hall’s success, Iowa State’s efficiency numbers in the ground game were in the middle of the pack-to-lower nationally, ranking two spots below Clemson in rushing offense (59th) and 50th in Expected Points Added per rush, as well as 103rd in runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage (20.9%) and 111th in success rate on short-yardage standard downs# (59.3% success rate). That puts the pressure on senior Cyclones QB Brock Purdy, who’s thrown for nearly 12,000 yards over four seasons, with 80 touchdowns to 32 interceptions. This year, he’s posted his second-best passing efficiency (153.5) with a 73.1 completion rate for 2,984 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) with 18 touchdowns to seven interceptions. In that transfer portal exodus, Purdy has lost two more of his top-seven receivers (Hall was third with 302 yards and three TDs) with senior Tarique Milton (15 catches for 278 yards/3 TDs) and junior Joe Scates (eight catches for 145 yards/TD). Defensively, Iowa State is in the top-31 across the metrics we track, including a No. 26 ranking with the FEI in addition to those above. That does come in a Big 12 that wasn’t as formidable offensively this year, however, with one top-10 FPI offense (Oklahoma, 8th) and only one other top-25 team outside of Iowa State (Baylor, 24th). Out of conference, it was much worse with FBS dates against Iowa (99th) and UNLV (116th). They rank 13th in sack rate but are average in stuffing the run (56th) and worse versus short-yardage runs (86th). That latter part is of intrigue to the opponent, as Clemson is coming off of back-to-back strong efforts on the ground (333 yards in a win over top-10 Wake Forest; 265 yards in a 30-0 win at South Carolina; 6.2 yards per rush average over the wins). On to the odds and projections... Odds (via VegasInsider as of 12/20) Clemson -1; 44.5 over/under. Metrics outlook SP+ projection: 62% Clemson (Tigers by 5.3) ESPN FPI: 52.1% Clemson FEI: 58.3% Iowa State (Cyclones by 3.7) TeamRankings: Clemson by 1.4 CHEEZ-IT BOWL -- The line for this game has been all over the board and probably will see some shifts between now and next Wednesday. The Cyclones started as a 1-point favorite and it has yo-yoed back and forth ever since. ESPN’s FPI sees the matchup as essentially a pick’em, with the fellow Disney property SP+ the most bullish on the Tigers with a 5-point predicted margin of victory. The FEI likes the Cyclones by just over a field goal. Iowa State was a darling of the 2020 bowl season with the defense locking down Oregon in a 34-17 Fiesta Bowl win. After building a strong reputation in the postseason up through the 2019 campaign, Clemson, meanwhile, is looking for some redemption from the decisive Sugar Bowl defeat to Ohio State to start 2021. A stacked Clemson defense versus the veteran Purdy will be interesting, as well as what steps DJ Uiagalelei can take in attacking a solid Cyclones defense. Despite the lower stakes, the Cheez-It Bowl offers a proving ground for Dabo Swinney’s Tigers in search of maintaining the 10-plus win streak. (Situational stats per CFBStats.com. SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. FPI is the Football Power Index that has a similar projection-style model from ESPN as well. FEI is a Football Outsiders projection tool that judges team efficiency for a projection. #Power success rate measures the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play.)
CLEMSON v IOWA STATE pic.twitter.com/pUxA2Bt5AR
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