Clemson's X-Factors: What will make the difference for a national championship run?

Clemson has to be better along the offensive line this season.

by Ryan Kantor - Contributor - Fri Jul 09 08:00:06 GMT-05:00 2021

The 2021 football season is still a couple of months away, but the anticipation level is the strongest I’ve felt since 2016. That year, Clemson was returning loads of talent after falling just a few points short of the National Championship.

After a weird 2020 season in which the Clemson family couldn’t fully unite and celebrate together, cheering on the Tigers in a packed stadium feels surreal. A schedule that features the traditional rivals excluded last season – NC State, Florida State, and South Carolina – is another reason for excitement. Of course, the season starts against an even more exciting rival, Georgia. Clemson is a slight (-3.5) favorite against the Bulldogs and a heavy favorite to win the ACC.

After finishing No. 3 in the AP Poll last season, Clemson will likely start 2021 ranked at least that high, but what will make the difference between another high finish and a National Championship? Staying relatively healthy and having DJ Uiagalelei continue Clemson’s run of great quarterback play are of course toward the top of the list, but let’s look at three major X-factors that could be the difference between a very good season and a National Championship one.

The interior offensive line needs to push people over

There’s been a lot of talk about how Clemson’s offensive line needs to improve, but we can be more specific than that. They ranked 11th in sack rate last year, so they actually did a commendable job of keeping Trevor Lawrence upright. Right tackle Jordan McFadden was its best O-lineman (per PFF) and left tackle Jackson Carman was good enough to be drafted 46th overall by his hometown Cincinnati Bengals. McFadden is now shifting over to left tackle. Opposite him, Walker Parks will likely ascend to starting right tackle after a very impressive freshman season as a reserve. Clemson’s tackle positions and pass blocking in general are in great shape.

The Tigers must get better at creating running lanes in the A and B gaps. They ranked just 66th in opportunity rate (% of carries that gain 4+ yards) and 51st in line yards (a formula that credits a portion of rushing yards to the O-line). This is especially paramount now that they won’t have Travis Etienne who could turn even a tiny crease into a touchdown.

Starting guards Matt Bockhorst and Will Putnam are returning. Hunter Rayburn and Mason Trotter are vying for snaps at center with last year’s starter departing, Cade Stewart. While ESPN doesn’t make a habit of talking about interior offensive linemen, the growth and development of this group may be the most important X-factor for Clemson’s offense in 2021.

Who will make highlights?

Clemson must replace 72% of last year’s rushing yardage and 62% of their receiving yardage. Last year’s top two rushers (RB Travis Etienne and QB Trevor Lawrence) and top three pass catchers (Amari Rodgers, Cornell Powell, and Travis Etienne) are now in the NFL.

At wide receiver, getting Justyn Ross back from injury could play a major role in filling the void, but there are still plenty of unknowns. Will Ross be 100% after a year lay-off? How will he adjust to playing the slot? Joe Ngata and Frank Ladson seemed primed to breakout last year, but injuries slowed them down. Will the breakout come in their junior seasons? EJ Williams had 12 catches in his last three games after 12 in his first seven games. Will he build upon that? Ajou Ajou showed flashes. Will he be ready to contribute consistently? If so, his upside is tremendous. Will Beaux and Dacari Collins be ready as freshmen? The cupboard is full, but several players must have career years.

At running back, there are a multitude of options, but replacing Travis Etienne is a difficult task. If the interior line play improves, the running game can be more consistent but will it be explosive? Perhaps Will Shipley can provide that kind of spark. Maybe veteran Lyn-J Dixon is ready to take his game to another level. The talent is there – running back may be Clemson’s deepest position group – but getting more production in the running game while losing arguably the best running back in school history is a tough ask.

Plug the holes in the secondary

While the Tigers finished 14th in rushing defense last season (112.7 rushing yards allowed per game), the passing defense struggled at times, finishing just 42nd nationally (214.2 passing yards allowed per game).

The defensive line was young and beset by injuries. Tyler Davis and Xavier Thomas each missed chunks of the season, and DE Justin Foster missed the entire year. Now, they’re healthy and give the Tigers potentially their best defensive line since 2018. Getting more pressure on opposing QBs will certainly take pressure off the cornerbacks and safeties. Nonetheless, the secondary needs to improve and they’ll have to do it while replacing Derion Kendrick who joined Clemson’s week 1 opponent, Georgia, shortly after he was dismissed from Clemson.

Fortunately, Andrew Booth has demonstrated the ability to be a lock-down cornerback, but he’ll need to do it consistently. Mario Goodrich and Sheridan Jones have proven reliable, but the depth behind him is untested. Fred Davis II and Malcolm Greene are just sophomores. Will they be ready for a major role if called upon? If not, true freshman Nate Wiggins, a talented four-star who spurned LSU for Clemson, could be thrust into action. This group will have to remain healthy and have a few players rise to the occasion.

At safety, Clemson was extremely fortunate to get Nolan Turner back for a sixth year. He isn’t a high-end NFL prospect or a former top recruit so he often gets overlooked, but he was undoubtedly Clemson’s best safety last season.

Lannden Zanders had offseason shoulder surgery and is expected to be healthy for the opener against Georgia. While he struggled at times, he was still Clemson’s second-best safety (per PFF). There’s renewed optimism for what he can do in 2021 after learning he played through injury for much of 2020. Zanders taking the next step in his development would be a major difference-maker for the Tigers’ defense.

There’s ample depth behind them with highly-touted freshman Andrew Mukuba joining Joseph Charleston, Tyler Venables, Ray Thornton, and RJ Mickens. Still, there needs to be improvement from this position group for the defense to once again be elite against the pass.