Clemson, the ACC, and conference realignment: What happens next?

Dabo Swinney leads the once again ACC favorites into this season for a league with a clouded future. (Photo: Jim Dedmon / USATODAY)

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Thu Aug 03 11:38:06 GMT-04:00 2023

The wheels of college realignment have moved in fits and starts for a few years, and we currently sit amid a flurry of activity that has many wondering what’s next. If you’re a Clemson fan, you’re really wondering.

I might have a few answers for you.

Realignment isn’t new, and even over the last decade-plus, we’ve seen Maryland bolt the ACC for the Big Ten, West Virginia head to the Big 12, Texas A&M head to the SEC, Nebraska leave the Big 12 and take up residence in the Big Ten, Colorado leave the Big 12 for the Pac-12, Texas and Oklahoma make their declaration to leave the Big 12 and head to the SEC, USC and UCLA leaving the Pac 12 for the Big Ten, and most recently Colorado tell the Pac-12 goodbye and head back to the Big 12.

Now, everyone is watching what happens next. The Big Ten (or B1G) and the SEC are expected to continue to add and form a Power 2. The Big 12 is continuing to add teams so it doesn’t get left behind, the ACC is holding on for dear life, and the Pac-12 is disintegrating before our eyes.

And, unless you’ve been living under a rock, the two names to watch are Clemson and Florida State. Both schools are unhappy with the revenue gap – now and in the future – that the ACC has with the B1G and the SEC, a gap that will only continue to grow as the ACC’s media rights deal trudges on until 2036.

Florida St. has been vocal in its desire to leave, and the rhetoric took an even louder turn Wednesday when it held a Board of Trustees meeting, with the final portion focusing solely on the board's concern over where the athletic program will be in the future if it doesn't leave the ACC or if the ACC's revenue-distribution model doesn't change to more directly reflect FSU's value to the league.

FSU president Richard McCullough spoke at that point and said that the revenue gap creates a financial crisis for his school.

“We currently, as you all know, face a very difficult situation. We are seeing large media deals have been made with places like the Big Ten 10 and the SEC, which in many ways are creating – maybe it is an exaggeration – but existential crisis provides for Florida State University, as we will be $30 million per school per year behind in our gap in conference distribution with…contracts that are said to go through 2036,” McCullough said. “So, this current situation presents a very difficult situation for us. Because we are investing in things like football. Football, basketball bring in the most revenue, which actually supports all the rest of the sports. Without increasing revenue, we will face major challenges in being able to compete in football. As you know, the landscape is changing dramatically with our ability to compete in NIL, in coaching salaries and attractive facilities to continue to build our brand and be competitive. And by the way, the waterfall revenue falls down to support things like women’s soccer and softball. Title IX sports could be affected in a very dramatic way.

“We, of course are not satisfied with our current situation. We love the ACC, we love our partners at ESPN. We, our goal, would be to continue to stay in the ACC, but staying in the ACC under the current situation is hard for us to figure out how we remain competitive unless there were a major change in the revenue distribution within the conference, in the ACC conference itself.”

McCullough said that while this problem has been worked on for a year, there have been no answers, and the threat was obvious – either fix it fast or we’re headed elsewhere.

That brings us to Clemson. While Florida St. has been vocal about its dissatisfaction and desire to leave for greener pastures, it’s been quiet in the upper corner of South Carolina. Athletic Director Graham Neff has pushed for an unequal revenue sharing plan that would benefit the schools that bring the most value to the conference – like Clemson and FSU – but even that seems too little, too late, and not even to bridge the cavernous and growing gap.

But for all of the rhetoric and cage-rattling out of Tallahassee, Clemson has remained quiet, at least publicly. And to be honest, I don’t expect that to change. If Florida St. doesn’t have a landing spot already in place, and I don’t believe they do, the bluster looks a little more like desperation than true bravado. Clemson always has and will keep things internal.

As you know, I’ve tried to follow this since the beginning, and I’ve reached out to dozens of contacts in leagues and at schools across the country, as well as media and television folks. Why? Because if and when this happens, it might be the biggest story to come out of Clemson in a long time. Maybe ever. The gravity of the situation is not lost on me. At last week’s ACC Football Kickoff, many of my conversations centered on this very topic, and I was told early on the first day to look for Colorado to bolt the Pac 12 that afternoon.

With all of the calls – I was even on a call at 11 Wednesday night with someone who had talked to an AD in the Pac-12 – I’ve been able to glean some information I think might be helpful and perhaps add a potential timeline to what happens next as well as ease some of the angst some might be feeling.

Let’s start with the Pac-12. It’s my understanding there is supposed to be a call with the remaining Pac-12 schools Friday, but folks out there don’t think it will happen because Arizona and maybe others will leave for the Big 12 in the interim. That’s the first domino to fall. The B1G doesn’t want to appear predatory, but it’s had its eyes on Oregon and Washington for a while. And now that the Pac-12 is imploding (that conference was supposed to have a media rights deal done in March and still doesn’t have one, and the latest thought was to put their conference solely on streaming devices), the B1G can reach out. As it was explained to me late Wednesday, the conference will “provide a life raft” to those schools.

Perhaps that will happen sooner, maybe within the next two weeks or so. And if that happens, the quiet SEC might then begin to look and see what else is out there. For reasons we’ve explained before (adding states where the league doesn’t have a foothold), brands like UNC and Virginia might be the most attractive to the SEC. I’ve heard that more than once.

That’s why I think we aren’t going to hear anything soon. Look, the way these things work, it could happen tomorrow. But we’ve been hearing about Colorado for a year now, and it finally happened last week. As for an August 15th date with the ACC (when schools are supposed to send a letter to the ACC announcing an intent to leave so they can leave by the end of next June), I was told by someone at Florida St. that it feels “too soon” and there is still a lot of work to be done before anything happens.

In other words, expect Clemson and Florida St. in the ACC next season. I’ve been told by more than one source that perhaps a more realistic timeline is something that is worked out by 2024, and life starts anew in 2026. Clemson can bridge the financial gap without issues until then if it chooses that path.

And let me say this about Clemson – don’t think the lack of a statement or public outcry denotes a lack of energy toward making sure the school’s athletic programs are taken care of now and in the future. On more than one occasion recently, I’ve heard the following buzzwords when discussing this topic and Clemson’s administration – they are “aligned” and “informed,” and this is “prioritized” at the highest levels. It’s very, very active right now, and the folks at FSU tell me that they are in contact with Clemson’s people – lawyers and administrators and governing bodies – daily. That means, to me, that the two programs are going into this hand-in-hand, just in a different manner.

As for the elephant in the room, the ACC's Grant of Rights, I am sure the potential mess this would create would give the B1G and the SEC pause, but the GOR is not seen as a deterrent to leaving, at least that's what Florida State has intimated. In layman’s terms, lawyers are doing lawyerly things. Nothing is airtight.

So, that’s where we stand, and I hope it answers some questions. And we can follow along as the rest of the dominoes continue to fall.