Clemson Season Preview: Game by game predictions |
The season is just around the corner, and it’s time to lock in my official game-by-game predictions. Typically, I have given a projected win percentage for each game, but this year, I worked up the courage to stake out direct win-loss picks for each game. It is with fear and trembling I present to you my official picks.
at Duke: Duke blasted UCF in the Military Bowl to complete a nine-win season in Coach Mike Elko’s first year. Elko deservingly won ACC Coach of the Year after turning around a program that won just three games the year prior. The Blue Devils return a lot of production, including QB Riley Leonard, who threw for 2,967 yards with a 20-6 TD-to-INT ratio, but they may regress from 2022’s nine-win mark anyway. Why? They were just 2-3 against bowl teams, and the 2023 schedule is much tougher. All eyes will be on Clemson at Duke on Labor Day, and I expect the Tigers to win handily. Charleston Southern: The Buccaneers were just 2-8 last season, including a 55-3 loss to NC State. Expect something similar against Clemson. Florida Atlantic: It’s a year of change for the Owls. After going just 5-7 last season, Tom Herman is replacing Willie Taggart as Head Coach. They also have a new QB, former Texas and Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson. The change doesn’t stop there, the Owls are also entering their first year as an American Athletic Conference member. That’s all interesting, but it doesn’t change the fact that they don’t have the talent level to beat a focused Clemson team. The Tigers must avoid looking ahead to FSU but should cruise to victory without revealing too much for the looming Seminoles. Florida State: The Seminoles will provide Clemson with their first major test of the season. Florida State won the ACC in 15 of their first 23 years as a member (1992-2014), but it has not beaten Clemson nor won the ACC since 2014. Many believe this is the year they retake the conference. Florida State was top 10 in total offense and stands to get better with the transfer portal additions of WR Keon Coleman (Michigan State), TE Jaheim Bell (South Carolina), and OT Jeremiah Byers (UTEP). The Seminoles' defense should be solid as well, especially with the additions of lockdown CB Fentrell Cypress from Virginia and second team All-MAC DT Braden Fiske from Western Michigan. I still have questions about the Seminoles, though. Florida State’s late-season win streak was against mediocre to average opponents: Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, Louisiana, Florida, and Oklahoma. They lost to Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson. Their only win against a top opponent was vs. LSU in Week 1 before new Coach Brian Kelly could really put his stamp on the team. The Seminoles are good enough to be a serious threat and perhaps even win on a neutral site – a Charlotte rematch is possible – but going into Death Valley and winning is another story. Clemson will extend their win streak over FSU to eight games. FSU has been ranked in the preseason AP top 25 18 times since 2000. at Syracuse: Clemson and Syracuse have faced off ten times since 2013. In those contests, Clemson has won four games by 26 points or more, five by 10 points or fewer, and lost once (2017). They usually win, but it isn’t always easy. This year, the Tigers have to fly up to Syracuse after an emotional contest with the Seminoles. Syracuse boasts All-ACC First Team tight end Oronde Gadsden and the experienced, athletic Garrett Shrader at QB. It could be another frustrating one, but like 90% of the previous contests, the Tigers will come out on top to reach 5-0. Wake Forest: Wake Forest got off to a hot start and beat FSU last season but finished with just seven regular season wins. They are without all-time ACC passing TD leader Sam Hartman (transfer to Notre Dame), 1,000-yard receiver A.T. Perry (drafted by the Saints), and key WR Donovan Greene (knee injury). Clemson has won 14 straight in the series, and with what looks like a 6-6 Demon Deacon squad in 2023, it is unlikely this is the year the streak is broken. at Miami: Following an open date, Clemson faces a potentially treacherous three-game stretch. Miami finished with a paltry 5-7 record last year, but they have the talent to be so much better. The Tigers have had their way with the Hurricanes lately. They’ve won the past four contests by a combined 178-30, so a loss here feels pretty unlikely. Still, Miami has one of the top offensive lines in the ACC, and an uber-physical game – potentially one in prime time that has the Tigers getting back to South Carolina in the middle of the night – is not an ideal way to start this tough stretch. Section edited at 8:25 a.m. at NC State: Clemson has only had a perfect regular season six times in school history: 1900, 1948, 1981, 2015, 2018, and 2019. Obviously, Florida State and Notre Dame are the biggest hurdles to the Tigers doing it this year, but when I look at those two gargantuan contests individually, I lean Clemson. Still, I believe 11-1 is more likely than a perfect 12-0. So, where’s the loss? NC State lost QB Devin Leary to Kentucky via transfer but added Brennan Armstrong from Virginia. In 2021, Armstrong threw for 4,449 yards. In 2022, Tony Elliott took over in Charlottesville, offensive coordinator Robert Anae went to Syracuse, and the Virginia offensive took a nosedive. Now, NC State has hired Anae away from Syracuse and reunited him with QB Brennan Armstrong. NC State loses some key wide receivers, but they are always tough at the line of scrimmage and now have a creative OC that will open up the offense. They could win as many as nine games in 2023. The Wolfpack will be coming off an open date, and If Clemson is banged up and tired after a road game at Miami or looking ahead to Notre Dame the next week, they could take a loss in Raleigh. I predict they do – dropping them to 7-1. Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish manhandled Clemson last year despite not having top-level QB play. The incoming QB transfer Hartman gives them a dramatic upgrade there, but he won’t have the same level of pass-catchers he had at Wake Forest. He also won’t have Dave Clawson’s “Pace & Space” offense. In fact, he won’t even have Tommy Rees' offense, as the offensive coordinator he committed to left for Alabama and was replaced internally by Gerad Parker. Notre Dame won’t have TE Michael Mayer, cold wind gusts, or thousands of fans cheering them on. Instead, they’ll be surrounded by 80,000 Clemson fans as they try to slow the tempo of Clemson’s offensive assault. The Tigers will get revenge, improve to 8-1, and keep their playoff hopes alive. Georgia Tech: Finally, after a brutal three-game stretch the competition lightens. Clemson hasn’t lost to GT since 2014, and it would be stunning for them to drop this game at home. The Tigers will roll in this one to reach 9-1. North Carolina: UNC quarterback Drake Maye is good, but I’m not sure the rest of the team is. They lost WR Josh Downs and offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Clemson won 39-10 in last year’s ACC Championship, and the gap between these two teams may have widened. at South Carolina: To close the season, the Tigers must go to Williams-Brice Stadium to exact revenge on their in-state rival. Clemson caught the Gamecocks at their hottest point of the last few seasons, and Spencer Rattler was the perfect gunslinger to take advantage of the Tigers’ porous secondary. This year, Clemson’s secondary should be much improved. The Tigers will shut down their rushing attack and control the game en route to starting a new Palmetto Bowl win streak. Final Record: 11-1, ACC Championship berth with a chance to make the College Football Playoff
It has finished with a lower ranking 15 of those times and finished unranked after being preseason top 25 five times.
Exceptions:
2003: start 13, end 11
2010: start 20, end 17
2013: start 11, end 1 https://t.co/RasVSWh4TF
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