ESPN analyst on Clemson: "There's a chance they prove this hater wrong"

Clemson has the best odds to win the ACC, but going past that is something ESPN's Bill Connelly isn't committed to.

Brandon Rink · Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer · Monday, July 07 2025

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has occasionally drawn the ire of Clemson fans.

Depending on your expectations for the Tigers this season -- and there are plenty of them nationally as well -- his somewhat skeptical view of Clemson may irk you.

Connelly sees Clemson as a clear ACC favorite, and therefore set for a College Football Playoff return, but from there, he is looking for Dabo Swinney and Co. to prove some suspicions wrong:

"It's a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games," Connelly wrote in his ACC preview. "For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson's defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with (Peter) Woods' efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.

"The Tigers didn't stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. (Phil) Mafah and (Jay) Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there's no way we're talking about a top-five team here."

That said, Connelly knows he could very well be proven wrong.

"I'm excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we'll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s," he said. "If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it's going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it's going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It's going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there's a chance they prove this hater wrong."

In Connelly's advanced metrics model, Clemson is ranked No. 8 preseason with an average projected regular-season win total of 10 (6.8 in the ACC).

The model gives Clemson a by-far ACC-leading 36.8% chance of winning 11 or more games and a 26.8% shot at the conference championship. Miami is next at No. 12 in the SP+ with a 17.9% chance to win a first ACC title in football, followed by SMU (No. 20 overall; 10% ACC chance) and Louisville (No. 24; 8.7% ACC chance).

Connelly's returning production ranking slotted the Tigers on top of the sport earlier this offseason, bringing back 85% on offense and 76% on defense. No other ACC program brings back more than 65% and the average nationally is 53%.

ESPN SP+ top ACC contenders

Clemson 23.3 SP+ rating, 26.8% chance to win ACC, 10 average wins projected
Miami 18.8 SP+, 17.9% to win ACC, 9.2 AVG W
SMU 13.1 SP+, 10% to win ACC, 8.4 AVG W
Louisville 12.1 SP+, 8.7% to win ACC, 8.3 AVG W