Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Louisville projections |
Clemson’s
ticket has been punched to Charlotte and the ACC Championship Game, and last week’s surprise 35-14 defeat at Notre Dame has flipped postseason projections beyond that upside down.
Louisville started the season 2-3, including a 31-7 defeat at Syracuse in the opener, but has since rallied to win four in a row and clinch a bowl spot – including a top-10-ranked win over Wake Forest in late October. Here’s how the teams shape up through nine games each: Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks ($) (18): 29 | 20 | 30 UL SP+ ranks (32): 45 | 39 | 31 CU FPI ranks (8): 29 | 25 | 23 UL FPI ranks (23): 48 | 13 | 39 CU FEI ranks (21): 42 | 17 | | 14 UL FEI ranks (22): 51 | 10 | 68 – Louisville has a higher-rated defense than Clemson by multiple metrics through nine games, which is particularly surprising given how they started the season at Syracuse. Conversely, the Cardinals offense hasn’t quite matched preseason expectations through some ups and downs and injury. Most surprising though is one metric (FEI) having Louisville just one place behind the Tigers as we hit the final stretch of the season. Louisville led for a good chunk of last year’s game in the series, but Dabo Swinney's Tigers received some great goal-line effort to stave off defeat:
Taking a closer look at this Cardinals team, the slow start yielded Pro Football Focus game grades below 70 in each of the first three, but they’ve graded above 80 in the last two (85.2 versus Wake; 80.4 against James Madison).
That includes plus grades running the ball (82.8 v. Wake; 81.8 v. JMU), where Clemson is coming off yielding Notre Dame’s top run grade of the year (82.2). They've averaged over five yards per carry in wins and under that figure in losses.
In the passing game, Malik Cunningham is running the show again and he’s averaged over eight yards per pass in wins (8.3) and under seven in losses (6.9) with 0.5 interceptions in those victories and 1.3 picks a game in defeat.
On the other side of the ball, Louisville’s metrics are bolstered by a No. 3 ranking against power success rate*, No. 4 ranking in sack rate and No. 8 ranking for stuff rate#.
(Per Football Outsiders: * The percentage of carries [when four yards are available] that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job. # Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.)
Three Louisville players to watch
1. QB Malik Cunningham - Cunningham is a dual-threat in his fifth year commanding the Cardinals offense, and struggling through some injury, he has taken a step back overall (74.3 PFF grade) from a strong 2021 campaign (91.5 PFF grade). While often known for his legs, he has topped an 80-grade as a passer in two of the last four games, including averaging 11.2 yards per pass with three touchdowns to no interceptions against James Madison last week. He hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards since the win at BC in week 5 but has hit triple-digits rushing three times this season. Cunningham is averaging 6.5 yards per carry when you take out sacks. With a clean pocket, he is completing 66% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt, while under pressure (31% of his dropbacks this season, he’s hit 47.8% of his passes at 5.9 yards per attempt (For reference, DJ Uiagalelei hits 71.2% of his passes at 7.7 YPA with a clean pocket and 36.5% when under pressure for 5.3 YPA [24.9% of his dropbacks]). Cunningham ranks seventh in overall offensive grade within the ACC (74.3; Uiagalelei is fifth, 77.8). Louisville coach Scott Satterfield said that Cunningham “did ding” his non-throwing hand last time out versus James Madison but is said to be fine.
2. RB Tiyon Evans - The Tennessee transfer has been a playmaker lately with 232 rushing yards with two touchdowns in only 21 carries in wins over Wake Forest and James Madison. With a sample size of 178 snaps, Evans leads the Louisville offense in PFF grade (77.6).
3. DE Yasir Abdullah - Abdullah paces the Cards in PFF grade (83.3) and ranks among the top-20 of edge defenders nationally in hurries (23) with a top-10 pass rush grade in that group (90.1) and five sacks. He’s also added two interceptions this season and he has three in his career. Abdullah had a sack in last year's game against Clemson.
Odds
Clemson -7; 52 over/under.
Metrics predictions
SP+ projection: Clemson 31-23 (67% Clemson projection)
ESPN FPI: 76.2% Clemson projection
TeamRankings*: 29-22 Clemson
FEI: Very slight to Clemson, .1 margin (50.2% Clemson projection)
LOUISVILLE @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/nbeTzdQl07
— parker (@statsowar) November 8, 2022
*In the above link as well.
Analysis: Metric predictions are all over the board, with one (FEI) essentially a pick'em. SP+ just gets the Tigers over the Vegas number and TeamRankings is right at it currently.
Clemson has not lost back-to-back games within a season since 2011, and I wouldn’t predict that to happen here. But there is something to prove coming out of last Saturday and Cunningham has commanded a team that’s come close to slaying the divisional giant recently. Clemson has won an ACC-record 38 in a row at home and they extend that streak, but Louisville makes them sweat to the finish again. Pick: Louisville +7. (5-4 on ATS picks; 7-2 on O/U this year – game score picks in TigerNet’s weekly predictions story).
What’s left after this weekend
11/19 v. Miami: 4-5 (2-3 ACC), coming off of a 45-3 home loss to rival Florida State and play at Georgia Tech this weekend. SP+ - 74. FPI - 67. FEI - 91.
11/26 v. South Carolina: 6-3, clinched a bowl berth with a 38-27 win at Vanderbilt for a fifth win in six games. SP+ - 39. FPI - 53. FEI - 51.
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