Clemson's NCAA Tournament projections, ACC Tournament scenarios in final week of regular season |
Clemson men's basketball faces a crucial week for seeding in both postseason tournaments ahead.
For the Big Dance, Brad Brownell's Tigers are securely in with a minimum of three games until Selection Sunday (March 17), with projections as a 5-seed from ESPN, 6-seed from CBS Sports and an average of a 5-seed overall currently. For ESPN, Clemson is projected to a Brooklyn NCAA regional pod to face Richmond, with a possible second-round matchup with Kentucky or Appalachian State within the Midwest Regional (Detroit). CBS sends the Tigers to a Spokane NCAA Regional pod to face Indiana State, with San Diego State or Akron waiting in the next round within the South Regional (Dallas). ESPN's matchup predictor pegs the Tigers to win Tuesday's matchup with Syracuse (88.3%) but fall Saturday at an NCAA bubble team in Wake Forest (37.5%), which is in ESPN's "Last Four In" the NCAA Tournament (along with Virginia). Regarding the hunt for a double-bye to the ACC Tournament quarterfinals next week, the most straightforward route for Clemson (20-9, 10-8 ACC) is to win both games this week to clinch the spot. With Syracuse playing for a 12-8 ACC record on Tuesday, Clemson has to win that game to get the double-bye. In one situation, Clemson could get a top-four seed and double-bye with a win over Syracuse and a loss to Wake Forest only if Wake Forest loses at home to Georgia Tech on Tuesday and Pitt loses to either Florida State or NC State at home this week -- and only that scenario, because Clemson would lose a tiebreaker for the No. 4 seed in that particular situation if Pitt were to lose both games this week. Another scenario in which Clemson could get the No. 4 spot with a loss to Wake Forest is if Florida State wins both games this week and makes it a four-way or five-way tie at 11-9 for Clemson, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pitt and Florida State (Clemson went 4-1 against those teams in that scenario in a four-way tie and 6-1 in a five-way tie). If the Tigers are swept this week, they can enter the D.C. ACC Tournament as low as a nine-seed. Clemson can also garner as high as a 3-seed if Virginia were to lose on Saturday at home to Georgia Tech. When it comes to stacking on the NCAA resume, a win Saturday at Wake Forest would add a sixth NCAA NET Rating Quadrant 1 win for the Tigers. Only 14 teams have accomplished six or more Quadrant 1 wins to this point (Per WarrenNolan.com). Clemson NCAA Tournament profile Record: 20-9 Road/neutral record: 9-5 Strength of schedule: 16 Record vs. NET Quadrant 1: 5-4 (Wins: 85-77 at No. 7 Alabama; 80-76 at No. 10 UNC; 85-68 versus No. 24 Boise State at home; 74-66 versus No. 39 TCU at neutral site; 79-70 at No. 44 Pitt) Quadrant 3/4 losses: 2 (78-77 to No. 84 NC State at home; 93-90 to No. 133 GT at home) Result-based metric average: 20 Predictive metric average rank: 24.5 NET ranking: 25 Non-conference record: 10-1
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