CLEMSON FOOTBALL

Travis Etienne could have a big night against a Hokies defense ranked 109th in yards allowed. (ACC photo)
Travis Etienne could have a big night against a Hokies defense ranked 109th in yards allowed. (ACC photo)

Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Virginia Tech projections, players to watch


by - Staff Writer -

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney often talks up opponents in his weekly press conference, but metrics back him up in selling a 4-5 Virginia Tech team as (at least somewhat) dangerous Saturday night under the Lane Stadium lights (7:30 p.m./ABC).

ESPN’s SP+ formula has the Hokies as the No. 20 team in the nation with an offense rated just outside the top-10 (11) led by a top-10 rushing offense (No. 9). That site’s Football Power Index sort of backs that up with the Hokies having a top-20 offense (18) and top-30 team overall there (30).

Clemson moved up to No. 2 in the nation with SP+ this week over Ohio State and only trailing Alabama with a top-5 offense (4) and top-10 defense (7). The Tigers are up to the No. 2-rated defense with the FPI.

More on how they matchup:

Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks (No. 2 overall): 4 | 7 | 30

VT SP+ ranks (No. 20): 11 | 45 | 40

CU ESPN ranks (No. 3 FPI rank): 9 | 2 | 84

VT ESPN ranks (No. 30): 18 | 65 | 106

(SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. ESPN’s own measure follows a similar formula to measure team efficiency and is tied to the ESPN Football Power Index.)

Three players to watch: Virginia Tech

RB Khalil Herbert

Herbert has graded among the best in the nation (91 overall; 93.3 in run game) with nearly 1,000 rushing yards (924) with six touchdowns and an 8.2 yards per carry average in eight games.

QB Hendon Hooker

Redshirt junior, dual-threat Hendon Hooker (6-4 220) has been among the top QBs in the ACC this year. He grades better as a runner (81.4) than a passer (71.5), with 715 rushing yards and nine TDs there and 1,336 yards and 9 TDs to 5 INTs through the air. Under pressure, Hooker has connected on 56 percent of his passes at 10.8 yards per attempt and one TD to one INT. On passes of 20-plus yards, he is 9-of-19 for 347 yards with two TDs to 3 INTs.

S Divine Deablo

Deablo is one of Virginia Tech’s highest-graded defenders (75.6) with an 80 grade in coverage and just below that against the run (79.3). He has a pair of interceptions and pass breakups and allowed just a 55.6 completion rate in throws his way (11.7 yards per reception).

(Grades and advanced stats per Pro Football Focus

Extra point

Trevor Lawrence’s workload has seen a change in 2020.

With the run game stunted much of the season, Lawrence has averaged over five more pass attempts per game than last season (32.6).

His passing averages went up incrementally from his freshman to sophomore seasons in completion percentage (65.2 to 65.8), yards per pass (8.3 to 9), pass attempts per game (26.5 to 27.1), passing yards per game (218.7 to 244.3) and passing TDs per game (2 to 2.4).

Those averages have shot up as a junior with career-best marks to this point in completion percentage (70.6), yards per pass (9.8) and passing yards per game (319.4).

Navigating injuries and other personnel issues, Clemson's passing game has still flourished and will be a key to continue with big games ahead.

The Projections

Clemson improved to 3-3 over its last six games against the spread in a dominating win over Pitt last week

The Tigers are a 22.5-point favorite at Virginia Tech, which again is out in front of the metric projections.

SP+ picks Clemson by only two touchdowns, while the FPI has a slightly more confident Clemson pick (87.2% projection; 18.7-point margin on neutral field) and FEI splits the two with a 16-point Tigers win picked

The Hokies in the first half of the season do appear to be different than the one that’s struggled down the stretch -- and that could account for metrics that still point in their favor. Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente will have to pull something out of the hat after a bye week to keep things close here.

Metrics outlook | Prediction

SP+ projection: 79% Clemson (Clemson by 14.1)

FEI: 86.9% Clemson (Clemson by 16.2)

ESPN FPI: 87.2% Clemson (Clemson by 18.7)*

* Point spread from the FPI rankings, which project a margin based on a neutral field.

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