Clemson vs. Ohio State Prediction: Can Tigers top Buckeyes in emotional rematch?

Clemson and Ohio State face off in the Sugar Bowl.

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Fri Jan 01 08:01:03 GMT-04:00 2021

Clemson will make its sixth consecutive College Football Playoff appearance on Friday, Jan. 1 when the second-seeded Tigers face third-seeded Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The broadcast at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome is scheduled for an 8 p.m. ET start.

The Tigers enter this year's College Football Playoff ranked tied for the most CFP appearances (six), CFP wins (six), CFP title game berths (four) and CFP national championships (two) since the inception of the current postseason format in 2014. Clemson's opponent will be a familiar one, as the Sugar Bowl will be Clemson's fourth bowl game against Ohio State since 2013 and its third against Ohio State in the College Football Playoff since 2016.

The contest will be Clemson's fifth bowl game against Ohio State all-time, passing Alabama and LSU (four each) as Clemson's most common bowl opponent. Clemson holds a 4-0 record all-time against the Buckeyes

NO. 2 CLEMSON (10-1) vs. NO. 3 OHIO STATE (6-0)

WHEN: FRIDAY, JAN. 1 8 P.M. ET
WHERE: MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME, NEW ORLEANS, LA.
TELEVISION: ABC (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Maria Taylor, Tom Rinaldi)
RADIO: Clemson Tigers Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Reggie Merriweather)
RADIO: ESPN Radio (Sean Kelley, Barrett Jones)
SATELLITE RADIO: Sirius 84, XM 84, Internet 84

CLEMSON/OHIO STATE SERIES HISTORY

OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 4-0
HOME: N/A
ROAD: N/A
NEUTRAL: Clemson leads series, 4-0
LAST MEETING: Dec. 28, 2019 (29-23, W)
STREAK: Clemson, Won 4

NOTABLE

*The opportunity for significant parallels to the 2015- 16 postseasons exists for Clemson. After losing a national championship game in Glendale, Arizona to end 2015, Clemson returned to Arizona for the 2016 Fiesta Bowl and defeated Ohio State, 31-0, before winning the national title in the state of Florida. This year, Clemson faces Ohio State in New Orleans' Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the same venue in which Clemson's 2019 national championship hopes ended with a loss to LSU. With a win, Clemson would advance to play for another national title in the state of Florida, as this year's College Football Playoff National Championship will take place in Miami Gardens, Florida on Jan. 11.

*Clemson will be seeking an 11th bowl victory under Head Coach Dabo Swinney (10-6), which would tie the ACC head coaching record. Bobby Bowden holds the mark with 11, as an additional 11 of his 22 career bowl victories (including one later vacated) came either at West Virginia or at Florida State prior to the Seminoles' membership in the ACC.

*Heisman Trophy finalist Trevor Lawrence (3-1) will make his fifth career College Football Playoff start, tying Jalen Hurts (four at Alabama, one at Oklahoma) for the most of any quarterback in CFP history. He will attempt to set the record for most CFP wins by a quarterback. In four career CFP games, Lawrence has completed 83-of141 passes for 1,167 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a pass efficiency rating of 147.1.

WHEN OHIO ST. HAS THE BALL

The Buckeye offense goes through quarterback Justin Fields, and when he’s on, the offense is explosive. When he struggles, as it has at times this season, the offense struggles. Against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game, the offense was limited to 22 points and Fields was held to 114 passing yards on 12 completions.

Fields threw for 1,521 yards and 15 touchdowns and added 274 yards and five scores on the ground in 2020, completing 72.6 percent of his throws. His main target is receiver Chris Olave, who should return after missing the Big Ten title game. Olave caught 36 passes for 528 yards and five scores, teaming with Garrett Wilson (38 catches for 621 yards) to give Fields two viable threats on the outside. No other player on the Ohio State roster caught more than nine passes in 2020.

The running game, however, is on fire. Running back Trey Sermon is coming off a huge game (331 yards) against Northwestern and ran for 675 yards over six contests in 2020. Master Teague has 449 yards and six scores this fall.

Clemson’s defense is stingy against the run, giving up 99.8 rushing yards per game and just 2.8 a carry.

The Tigers held opposing teams to just 4.6 yards per play and lead the ACC by limiting teams to 17.5 points a game, and the Tigers recorded 44 sacks in 11 games. Additionally, the Tigers ranked first in pass efficiency defense in the ACC and allowed only one team to reach more than 300 passing yards.

The Tigers need to get pressure on Fields with a variety of looks and blitz packages, all while keeping him in the pocket. That strategy worked a few weeks ago against Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book, who at times used a variety of outlet receivers to move the chains. Notre Dame has the two outside, but I’m not sure they have that go-to tight end in the passing game. Clemson’s best defensive games were when Venables used linebackers to not only stop the run but overwhelm the line of scrimmage.

ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO CLEMSON

WHEN CLEMSON HAS THE BALL

Ohio State is ranked 34th nationally in total defense this season after finishing first a year ago. The 2019 defense was loaded on the defensive line (Chase Young) and had NFL prospects on the back end. That defensive backs group played it rough with Clemson’s receivers and controlled the Clemson offense through much of the first half.

This season, the Buckeyes played really one team with a pulse in the passing game and Indiana threw for 490 yards. Indiana has a good offense, but they won’t be mistaken for Clemson anytime soon. The Buckeyes are ranked 104th nationally in pass defense, giving up 261 yards per game through the air. Against a locked and loaded Trevor Lawrence, that is a recipe for disaster.

Lawrence has passed for 2,753 yards and 22 touchdowns to four interceptions in nine games and connected on 69.2 percent of his passes. However, Lawrence might make a big difference in the run game. Last year, Lawrence ran for 107 yards – including a 67-yard touchdown run – versus Ohio State. He’s posted 211 yards and seven scores on the ground in 2020, including a 90-yard performance in the ACC title game.

Clemson’s running game has struggled at times. Travis Etienne has posted 882 yards and 13 scores but his per-carry average is only 5.6 after averaging over seven in his previous three years on campus. The Buckeyes rank second in the Big Ten in rush defense and limit teams to just 3.4 yards per carry.

ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON, BECAUSE OF THE PASSING GAME

SPECIAL TEAMS

Dominic DiMaccio has just five touchbacks in 33 kickoffs this season, but the Buckeyes have allowed just one kickoff return over 30 yards this season. Blake Haubel is 5-of-7 on field goals this season, while Drue Chrisman has been solid at punter in averaging over 45 yards per punt this season.

Conversely, BT Potter has 70 touchbacks in 80 attempts. He is also 18-of-23 on field goals, and considering three of those misses were blocks that weren’t his fault, those are fantastic numbers. Will Spiers continues to have a stellar season, averaging 43.55 yards per punt.

Potter is the difference, especially if a big play is to be made on special teams.

ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO CLEMSON

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

I don’t know that I can say either team is better than the ones that played last year in the desert. However, Clemson is better along the defensive line while the Buckeyes have slipped on defense. The lack of games and the lack of consistency in the season also hurts Ohio State, mainly because Fields hasn’t been allowed to get into a rhythm. On the flip side, it looks like Trevor Lawrence is just getting warmed up as the offense hits its stride.

Since returning from COVID, Lawrence and the Clemson offense averaged 6.5 yards per play against Pitt and gashed Virginia Tech and the Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game for more than eight yards per play. Clemson’s offensive line also played better against Notre Dame and seems to be hitting its stride.

Ohio State will come out fired up and filled with emotion and it might go their way early. But Lawrence won’t get rattled and Brent Venables will get his defense dialed in. Both teams will make big plays. It’s gonna be fun and exciting. But much like last year in the desert, the Tigers take over in the second half and put a little distance between themselves and the Buckeyes.

FINAL SCORE: CLEMSON 37, OHIO ST. 27

More TigerNet picks
Mickey Plyler - 6-9 AM on WCCP 105.5FM - 38-30 Clemson
Nikki Hood - Staff writer - 30-17 Clemson
Brandon Rink - Staff writer - 34-24 Clemson
Pigskin Prophet - 41-27 Clemson
Tony Crumpton - Associate Editor - 42-7 Clemson*

(* Picking the same score all season)

PREDICTION TRACKER

Game	Actual	David Hood	Mickey Plyler	Nikki Hood	Brandon Rink	Pigskin Prophet	Tony Crumpton
Wake Forest	37-13 CU	42-9 CU	49-10 CU	49-13 CU	47-10 CU	44-13 CU	42-7 CU
The Citadel	49-0 CU	52-7 CU	57-6 CU	59-7 CU	55-0 CU	62-6 CU	42-7 CU
Virginia	41-23 CU	38-12 CU	41-14 CU	52-17 CU	45-16 CU	41-13 CU	42-7 CU
Miami	42-17 CU	37-16 CU	38-23 CU	38-20 CU	37-20 CU	41-20 CU	42-7 CU
GT	73-7 CU	45-13 CU	51-13 CU	52-7 CU	55-10 CU	44-13 CU	42-7 CU
Syracuse	47-21 CU	62-9 CU	63-10 CU	70-3 CU	59-6 CU	63-3 CU	42-7 CU
BC	34-28 CU	37-17 CU	34-20 CU	35-7 CU	27-17 CU	44-20 CU	42-7 CU
Notre Dame	47-40 ND 2OT	30-20 CU	24-20 CU	28-14 CU	27-23 CU	30-13 CU	42-7 CU
Pitt	52-17 CU	44-14 CU	44-20 CU	49-17 CU	45-17 CU	41-17 CU	42-7 CU
VT	45-10 CU	47-16 CU	48-17 CU	48-7 CU	45-17 CU	45-20 CU	42-7 CU
ND ACCCG	34-10 CU	34-30 CU	31-27 CU	35-20 CU	34-23 CU	41-27 CU	42-7 CU
Points	-	10	14	16	14	14	16

* Points: 3 pts for best correct prediction of the week (tiebreaker is Clemson score), 2 pts for picking score exactly, 1 pt for picking the correct winner