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If Trump loses, I think history will show that one incident
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If Trump loses, I think history will show that one incident


Oct 12, 2016, 7:42 AM

Knocked him out more than any other.

Looking at the FiveThirtyEight site that projects the likelihood of either candidate winning the election based on polls, on July 30th, Trump stood at 50.1% to win, Clinton at 49.9%, the only time he has been ahead in that metric.

Nine days later, Clinton was at over 87% to win.

July 30th was the day that Donald Trump fired back at Khizr Khan and his wife, who had spoken at the DNC convention a couple days before. Say what you will about how wrong, if at all, Trump was in that episode, but it's obvious the effect was significant and devastating for him.

Other bad bumps for Trump:

On Sep. 26th, he had battled bad to trail Clinton 55 to 45 in the FiveThirtyEight projection. This was the date of the first debate. Four days later, it was 67-33 Clinton. By Oct. 7th, it was 82-18 Clinton. Oct. 2nd was when the NYT released his tax return showing the $916 million loss.

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Waging war against establishment republicans for the


Oct 12, 2016, 7:44 AM

remainder of the campaign should help.

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We'll see. In a world where Trump ignores the Khans...


Oct 12, 2016, 7:46 AM

I wonder what the polls would look like right now.

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Or what would his numbers be if he just let a staffer


Oct 12, 2016, 7:48 AM

run his Twitter account

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DJT is not a politician. That is certain.


Oct 12, 2016, 7:50 AM

And I can give him no higher praise.

Our system is rigged and broken.

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Maybe our electorate isn't ready for a non-politician.


Oct 12, 2016, 8:04 AM

Or maybe Trump is the wrong non-politician.

I don't know if a nice guy, non-politician like Ben Carson would have done much better.

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That's waaay too simple of an explanation...


Oct 12, 2016, 8:55 AM [ in reply to DJT is not a politician. That is certain. ]

Not being a "politician" is no excuse for all of things he has said and done. I simply is a cop-out.

If he can't manage the public's view of his tax history or keep himself from saying things like he did about John McCain (I like people who weren't captured) or the countless other stupid things he's said...how in the world can we trust him as POTUS? Being a non-politician is not the problem. Having an unfiltered mouth and saying and doing idiotic things is the problem.

There are countless other ways he could have managed his tax returns.

I LOVE the idea of having an outsider as POTUS, but it's got to be someone with the gravitas to be President...to be the most powerful person in the world. They've got to be deliberate, smart, and open to council. Trump possesses NONE of those qualities. I used to at least think he would surround himself with good talent, but that only works if he listens to them. He's got talent in his staff now, but there is no way in he1! that he is listening to them.

The very thought of Clinton in the WH makes my skin crawl, but I really starting to think she might be the better choice. The idea of SCOTUS nominations was what was keeping Trump in play for me, but I'm starting to think that's not even worth the risk. Pretty sad.

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The core problem with Trump is...


Oct 12, 2016, 9:05 AM

He lives in a world where there are winners and losers, and in order to be winners others have to lose. This belief is dangerous both in business and in politics. Rather than build up, he tears down.

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It's also worth noting he pretends to have never been a


Oct 12, 2016, 9:07 AM

loser. November 9th he will either join the ranks of the losers, or become the sorest loser of them all. Bush v. Gore will look like traffic court compared to what he'll be bringing.

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My two year old border collie isn't a politician.


Oct 12, 2016, 9:08 AM [ in reply to That's waaay too simple of an explanation... ]

That doesn't mean she'd make a great president. She'd be a better president than Trump, but still not very good.

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I can't say you're wrong. But I cringe at the idea of HRC on the WH.


Oct 12, 2016, 12:36 PM [ in reply to That's waaay too simple of an explanation... ]

Will only make matters worse.

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Trump's inability to keep his temper under control


Oct 12, 2016, 12:49 PM

is perhaps the scariest single trait of any candidate who has ever run for that office.

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His complete lack of understanding about the powers


Oct 12, 2016, 12:50 PM

of the office he seeks might be the second.

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good job flow... that's exactly where a lot of us are


Oct 12, 2016, 12:51 PM [ in reply to That's waaay too simple of an explanation... ]

I despise Hillary, but the blame for her probably ending up as POTUS falls squarely in the lap of the Rep party. They have no one to blame but themselves. The Dems served them up a nice, big, fat, underhanded softball, one they could've easily knocked out of the park. ####, Reps have been salivating at the chance to run against her for 20 years. With all of her baggage, and the fact that she is not very likable, and the Obama backlash, etc ... all they had to do offer up just a marginally, halfway-decent candidate, and they win in a landslide. Carl from Sling Blade coulda won.

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A drunk will run a STOP sign, but a stoner will wait for it to turn green.


That's true too...


Oct 12, 2016, 12:56 PM

this was an election that could have been won by the Republicans without nominating a moderate candidate.

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No one to blame but about 30% of primary voters...***


Oct 12, 2016, 1:07 PM [ in reply to good job flow... that's exactly where a lot of us are ]



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It goes deeper than that.


Oct 12, 2016, 1:14 PM

Years of conservative talk radio, web sites, etc. have been growing this monster. When the anger was against liberals all was great, but the began to turn it inwards and it went after it's own. Trump just stepped in and used that anger. And he's just using it for his own gain.

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Yup they made Trump


Oct 12, 2016, 1:23 PM

The "you can't trust politicians" line they used to win the House is going to cost them the Presidency.

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This, I think I agree with


Oct 12, 2016, 1:32 PM

Instilling cynicism in people is dangerous because it makes them more likely to support unreasonable, dangerous politics. And, of course, one of the best ways to instill cynicism in people is to make them hate everybody who actually has some power. This happens on the right with anti-"establishment" types, and on the left with people who assert that the entire system is set up just to ensure majority supremacy.

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And the left has been playing into this as well.


Oct 12, 2016, 1:40 PM

They've been crying wolf for so long with labels (racist, misogynist, etc.) that they have no target when they're correct.

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Totally agree


Oct 12, 2016, 1:53 PM

I despise the far left and far right equally. They are just different sides of the same fanatical coin. I do think the right has done a better job of turning paranoia into actual political gains. The left is just going to vote for Jill Stein or Johnson and go back to comments section of HuffPo.

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Why does that happen?


Oct 12, 2016, 1:40 PM [ in reply to This, I think I agree with ]

One would think that if the majority of Republican voters were happy with their leadership, they would want to keep it.

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They'd rather burn the house down.***


Oct 12, 2016, 1:44 PM



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Well, if they were happy with the house, they wouldn't have


Oct 12, 2016, 1:49 PM

set it afire.

The problem isn't with the voters.

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Do they want to fix it or destroy it?


Oct 12, 2016, 2:21 PM

The problem can be with both.

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The thing is, they actually are fine with it


Oct 12, 2016, 2:12 PM [ in reply to Why does that happen? ]

But there's a vocal minority that isn't, and they're the ones who nominated Trump.

I'm definitely not saying that the party has been perfect- far from it. What I'm saying is that an attitude of cynicism isn't appropriate because it obliterates all nuance from the analysis of the situation. A somewhat reasonable conservative cynic might've nominated Ted Cruz, who was as anti-establishment as they come and who all the elites hated. But because he played the political game by the rules, he didn't look likely enough to destroy the whole game.

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If Trump had never gotten in the race, Cruz didn't have a


Oct 12, 2016, 2:16 PM

chance.

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Re: No one to blame but about 30% of primary voters...***


Oct 12, 2016, 1:17 PM [ in reply to No one to blame but about 30% of primary voters...*** ]

Yeah, I know. But the primary debates were ridiculous, too. Little Hands Marco, Lyin Ted, etc. Good lord, 7th graders running for Student Body President in middle school are more mature. At times, I had to remind myself that it wasn't a SNL skit...

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A drunk will run a STOP sign, but a stoner will wait for it to turn green.


The debates were ridiculous because there were 10 people


Oct 12, 2016, 1:35 PM

You simply can't get a serious message out with that many people, especially when one of them was basing his entire campaign on being a d*ck. The people you mentioned- Rubio and Cruz- actually performed pretty well in the debates, but the entire spectacle was focused on Trump so everything they did just raised his profile.

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I don't know...I'm blaming a lot of dipsheets...


Oct 12, 2016, 2:54 PM [ in reply to good job flow... that's exactly where a lot of us are ]

that supported an "outsider" just because he was an "outsider" (when he really isn't an "outsider") and those the jump on very simple-minded rhetoric. I'm not ever sure how many of them were that involved in politics or specifically party politics before.

That's not to say that I agree with everything everyone in the party has done. I don't. but nominating Trump was a gross over-reaction and the consequences will be much worse than having supported someone like Rubio or Walker as examples.

If Trump's going to lose, I hope he loses HUGE (in Trump voice) and some folks learn their lesson from this.

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And what lesson is that?***


Oct 12, 2016, 3:20 PM



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That supporting someone just because they aren't...


Oct 12, 2016, 3:45 PM

a politician is stupid.

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do you think the politicians realize that


Oct 12, 2016, 9:09 AM [ in reply to DJT is not a politician. That is certain. ]

american citizens are fed up with the system being broken and rigged?

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They do, and they don't care.


Oct 12, 2016, 1:44 PM

Although I'm sure Cam will say it wasn't broken, and its the voters fault.

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Re: If Trump loses, I think history will show that one incident


Oct 12, 2016, 7:53 AM

A Muslim man with ties to terror extremists determines an election.

Yes our system and our Country is broken.

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That's one way of looking at it...another way...


Oct 12, 2016, 7:54 AM

Is that Trump maybe didn't get knocked out by anything Khan said or did, but by how Trump responded. One could look at the data and say that the drop didn't start until Trump responded, not after Khan's speech itself.

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that's a comical view in one way, sad in another


Oct 12, 2016, 8:32 AM [ in reply to Re: If Trump loses, I think history will show that one incident ]

you really can't see that it's Trump lack of self-control that's the problem? his narcissism? his inability to deal with criticism? he is a child in a 70-year-old body.

it was his reaction and the repeated idiotic statements that made him look so bad

of course it is quite Trumpish to try to blame A Muslim man with ties to terror extremists instead of accepting that it's your candidate with the problems

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Sorry, should have linked, so you can see for yourself.


Oct 12, 2016, 8:18 AM

The graph near the top of the page that trends the projection over time is very informative.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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Meanwhile, Trump's best gains were in the days


Oct 12, 2016, 8:21 AM

after Sep. 11th, when we saw Clinton have a health spell, and also some deleted e-mail rumblings.

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Nate Silver is obviously biased.***


Oct 12, 2016, 8:26 AM



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If Trump loses, it will be because Murica prefers


Oct 12, 2016, 12:13 PM

a power-obsessed, lying, cheating, big government socialist elitist professional politician psycho over an arrogant bullying loudmouthed ill-qualified billionaire with funny hair who grabs women by the pu**y.

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"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H. L. Mencken


This election is about who people hate less.


Oct 12, 2016, 12:36 PM

Only lost, screwed-up people actually like or respect either one of them.

The best choice would have been nearly any other republican... but now decent people are left with simply the unrealistic, imperfect option of Gary Johnson.

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