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Team Captain [466]
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The 20 win myth
Feb 25, 2019, 11:00 AM
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is a tradition unlike any other in basketball. This time of year the “experts” talk about who will and will not get in the tournament, one of the main tools used by people who don’t know what they’re talking about is saying that a given team needs to get to the magic number of 20. For example during our game against BC last Saturday Corey Alexander said we would need to win our last 4 regular season games (which would bring us to 20 wins) to get us into the tournament. Many years the bubble teams just aren’t good enough, and there just aren’t enough 20 win teams for this to be actually used. This year is one of those years right now according to Joe Lunardi we are in the tournament at 16-11, meaning we probably will have to only win 3 more games (including ACC Tournament games) to get into the tournament, meaning we will probably get into the Tournament at 19 wins. I doubt we will be the only team like this. Minnesota is also projected to be in the tournament even though they’re currently at 17-11 with 3 games left meaning they probably only need 2 more wins (including Big Ten tournament) to get into the tournament considering their remaining schedule contains two top 25 teams. Putting them at 19 wins. I also believe that people need to stop with their claims that ONE game determines whether or not we will get in the tournament. Remember when people were saying that the VTech game would determine whether or not we make the tournament? Or when people said the season was over right after the NC State game? These things are terrible and people need to stop doing them.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Even if you're right and we can get in with
Feb 25, 2019, 11:09 AM
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19 wins, our remaining schedule is at Pitt, UNC, at ND and Cuse. Pitt should be a sure thing. The rest?
Also, to get in at 19 wins we would need a lot of chalk in conference tournaments. Getting to 19 wins will be no easy task and even then I have my doubts that it's enough.
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Team Captain [466]
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None of these games are
Feb 25, 2019, 11:30 AM
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locks, we could slip up in any of these games, but i think we could definitely pick up a win at 13-14 Notre Dame or vs Syracuse on Senior Day. I also think we could beat UNC if we play well enough. Nothing is guaranteed at this point in the year.
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All-Conference [418]
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Re: The 20 win myth
Feb 25, 2019, 11:11 AM
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If the 19 wins includes a win against UNC Saturday then I would say possibly just needing one win in the ACC tournament to get in. Otherwise I don't think we get in barring winning the ACC tournament.
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Team Captain [466]
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Not necessarily we could pick up wins at ND
Feb 25, 2019, 11:32 AM
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at Pitt and vs Cuse and get to 19 wins.
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Orange Blooded [3047]
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It might be the 20 win myth, but
Feb 25, 2019, 11:16 AM
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there are just too many teams in the ACC that will have 20+ wins and the NCAA won't take nine teams from the same conference. Tigers will be left out without 20 wins or go deep in the tournament.
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Team Captain [466]
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Why wouldn’t they put 9 teams in
Feb 25, 2019, 11:33 AM
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from one conference?
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Legend [16900]
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Re: It might be the 20 win myth, but
Feb 25, 2019, 12:13 PM
[ in reply to It might be the 20 win myth, but ] |
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They've let 9 in from the ACC the last two years. That seems to be the limit because they left Louisville out and let FSU and Syracuse in when strong arguments could have been made in any direction. The difference is that the last two years there was a cluster of teams tied for 7th or 8th place with 10th place separated by only 1 game behind. Right now we are 9th but 2 1/2 games behind NC State and Louisville. If we can't close that margin then we leave a nice, easy dividing line for the NCAA. Both Louisille and NC State have very winnable games for 2 of their remaining 3 contests.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: The 20 win myth
Feb 25, 2019, 11:20 AM
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Clemson's chances depends squarely upon how much focus the committee puts on the new NET ranking.
That is what is giving Clemson a chance.
If the committee is looking at total wins, strength of wins, or how good the team actually is, then Clemson is most likely on the outside unless they beat UNC.
Beating UNC is not going to happen.
Even with a loss to UNC however, Clemson should finish with a good NET ranking.
If the committee wants to rely heavily on that new system then we may have a shot.
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All-In [40868]
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You get a cookie for the longest paragraph on tigernet today
Feb 25, 2019, 11:29 AM
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was it more than one thought?
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All-TigerNet [10901]
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Paragraphs are a wonderful thing. Some should learn
Mar 3, 2019, 9:58 PM
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how to use them! 
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Legend [16900]
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Re: The 20 win myth
Feb 25, 2019, 11:30 AM
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That's all fine and good except that you are wrong. Who Lunardi says is in from one week to the next is meaningless and he knows it. It isn't a projection of who WILL be in. Simply who he thinks would be in if the season ended then. Which is doesn't end then - so it's pointless speculation. Based on our remaining strength of schedule we have a less than 10% chance of making the tournament with 19 wins. At 20 wins we rise to just under 50%. We aren't solidy in until 21 wins. If we manage to win 3 of our last 4 regular season games we would put ourselves firmly on the bubble with a 19-12 record. But a loss in the first round to an 8 seed or lower team is going to push us right back off the bubble. Why are the last bids clustered around the magic 20 win number? Because whether it's the new NET rankings or the old RPI, your W-L record is the single largest component of the score. You split hairs between teams with the same win totals via stength of schedules, scoring margin, etc. Only teams with significantly lower scores in these columns are going to be leap frogged by a team with less wins. Additionally, some power rankings have ACC third behind the Big Ten and Big Twelve. That doesn't leave much margin for error. Add in that 3 of the 4 remaining regular season games are drags on our strength of schedule (probably 4 of our final 5 after the first round ACC tournament game) and we are a long shot to make the tournament.
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Team Captain [466]
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Where are you getting these 10 and 50%
Feb 25, 2019, 12:42 PM
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statistics from? Also based on the selection committees high value of ACC teams in their top 16 reveal i find it very hard to believe they would view the ACC as the third best conference. Lastly if Lunardi has us in now why would it drastically change 4 games from now after we went 3-1?
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Legend [16900]
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Re: Where are you getting these 10 and 50%
Feb 25, 2019, 3:25 PM
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1) A variety of websites offer NCAA tournament probabilities and they’re all fairly consistent with those numbers. This is the first year of the new NET rankings so the degree to which that changes things remain to be seen. Anyone - Jerry Palm, Joe Lunardi, or any other so called expert - are purely guessing at this point.
2). The ACC is very top heavy. Sagarin rankings has 3 of the top 5 from the ACC. But we’re ranked as the 3rd best conference. We have 5 teams ranked below 100 in the NET rankings! The Big Ten and The Big 12 have 1 team each below 100. Teams in the lower middle of the pack from those conferences are going to get much better consideration.
3) It would change because our SOS, a major compenent of any ranking system, will get worse over the last 4 games. Pitt and ND are really bad basketball teams.
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110%er [7718]
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Re: Where are you getting these 10 and 50%
Mar 3, 2019, 7:19 PM
[ in reply to Where are you getting these 10 and 50% ] |
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Viztiz is a loser who pulls for Clemson to lose so he can say “I told you so” you are wasting your time on him.
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Orange Blooded [2922]
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This article helps explain why we have a chance, but also...
Feb 25, 2019, 12:25 PM
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how nothing is guaranteed. There are other teams in the same boat as we are.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25923557/500-no-problem-2019
The bottom line is that we will not feel safe on selection Sunday, unless we do something like win out in the regular season. On a slightly more realistic note, let's say we go 3-1 in the next 4 (not a given for sure) and then maybe win a tournament game against NCSU before losing the second day against Duke or UVA. We would be 9-9 in conference and have a bonus win over a tournament team in the conference tourney. That probably gets us in....but we will be a bubble team, probably favorable due to the NET and a couple of good wins down the stretch in this scenario.
But if we do less than that (say 2-2 down the stretch and 1 ACC tourney victory)....we could get some strange, merciful first four bid that we probably don't deserve or we could end up an upper seed in the NIT.
First things first, we need to win an actual road game at Pittsburgh. They have had a full week off to prepare. I think we will get their best effort.
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Orange Blooded [2287]
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Re: The 20 win myth
Feb 25, 2019, 2:25 PM
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Of course there are examples of teams that won 20 games in the past and didn't make the tournament, and many examples of team making the tournament with less than 20 wins, but in general the 20 win argument is a good estimate for determining whether a team is tourney eligible. If Clemson, or any team in the bigger conferences, gets to 20 wins in the regular season, their odds of making the tournament are very high, and they generally don't have to be sweating it out on selection day!
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All-In [48078]
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Re: The 20 win myth
Feb 25, 2019, 3:35 PM
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We're not going to the tournament imo. I think we finish 19-12 in the regular season.
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All-In [43989]
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I think 19-12 is likely, but I think that’s good enough this year.
Feb 25, 2019, 3:45 PM
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9-9 in the ACC should be good enough, given the strength of the ACC and the fact that the bubble isn’t as strong this year as in years past.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s a sure thing, but I do think it is very likely.
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110%er [6280]
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Re: I think 19-12 is likely, but I think that’s good enough this year.
Mar 3, 2019, 10:03 PM
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Yep. With our net ranking if we win these next 2 we are probably in. If we add an ACC tourney W we are a lock imo. We could easily lose to ND and/or Cuse tho. That said if we go 1-1 and then win 2 tourney games we could make it maybe.
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110%er [8866]
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Orange Blooded [4095]
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I think we MIGHT be the best of the worse
Mar 3, 2019, 7:34 PM
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Now, that UNC game WAS eye-candy. They might say, hey ! we need a couple more and Clemson looked good against some really good teams even though they lost ... Now, the road might start in Dayton buts its better then say ... eating tacos in Central ?
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