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Honest question about Sars cov 2 testing
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Honest question about Sars cov 2 testing


Apr 25, 2020, 4:21 PM

If the goal is to increase testing capacity nationwide, how will states show a downward trend? Will there be a factor for earlier reduced capacity? Or will we essentially extend lockdown further until max capacity testing is reached and downward trend exists afterwards?

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When there is finally enough testing, they will start


Apr 25, 2020, 4:26 PM

estimating like they do with influenza. The curves you see now are primarily confirmed cases and deaths. At some point, people are going to flip out when they switch to estimates and the total cases and deaths both increase, but the shape of the curve changes.

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Re: When there is finally enough testing, they will start


Apr 25, 2020, 4:33 PM

So we could show downward projection despite higher positive tests due to increased testing capacity?

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I believe so, but I'm learning


Apr 25, 2020, 4:45 PM

One of the CDC guidelines is to see either a decline in new cases, or in the ratio of new cases to new tests. So they have increased testing included. Maybe what I said about revising the historical numbers is wrong - their might not be anything you can do to adjust those, but you could go forward with estimates.

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