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The State once again buries the lede
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The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 5:43 PM
curve040520.jpg(130.0 K)

Headline: South Carolina eclipses 2,000 coronavirus cases, four new deaths reported, officials say

Pointing out that we eclipsed 2,000 is obviously intended to invoke massive concern. The truth is, we saw "only" a 7% increase in cases; we could very well be seeing an early flattening of our curve. Deaths also were back down to an increase of 10%.

Also, they bury this in the story:
State health officials described 42 of the people who have died after testing positive for COVID-19 as elderly, two patients were middle-aged, and all but four had underlying medical conditions.




Read more here: https://www.thestate.com/news/coronavirus/article241781791.html?#storylink=cpy

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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 6:12 PM

We are doubling every four days. My understanding is that the math is this: there are 6 4-day periods left in April. So take 2^6 and multiply it by 42. How many people died? Now, wanna know something terrifying? The number you just calculated will double again FOUR DAYS LATER. And no, one day's numbers do not tell us anything about whether or not we are flattening the curve. They tell us that possibly (as a for instance) the hospitals are so overwhelmed that not all the paperwork has gone to dhec. I am praying that the curve is flattening, but let's not go wild with joy just yet.

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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 6:30 PM

Pretty sure this guy is bent on convincing us all there's nothing to worry about , it's part of a hoax maybe ?
This is about his 3rd or 4th post on along the same lines ... each one less evocative than the last .

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DB23


Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 6:38 PM

I'm an engineer... math doesn't scare me.

Only trying to show that the numbers will be scary, but the trends tell the story. It's the same methods I use in my day job to know whether or not we can ship a new chip, or do we go to fab with the next round of bug fixes.

Funny you have to resort to calling me a "hoaxer". Guess that's all you were able to get out of a data-driven argument. It was a little on the cerebral side.

Message was edited by: TigerOmally®

Message was edited by: TigerOmally®


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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 7:38 PM

More than your hoax i am disgusted that it matters to you who or what age dies. All count.

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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 6:37 PM [ in reply to Re: The State once again buries the lede ]

Did I say to go wild with joy? I'm showing that once again, we've had a significant "below the curve" day. However, The State runs the "we're above 2,000" headline.

The number of deaths is the metric to follow because that's a real number. We remain below the projection curve on that metric. I actually believe we're probably an order of magnitude higher in Covid-19 cases because of the high number of asymptomatic people. I also believe it hit here earlier than thought. No data to back that up; just some anecdotal information and personal experience.

And if you really want to see how we're doing, you should compare to the official projection numbers that you can find at this site. Just change the pulldown at the top to South Carolina.

What I'm saying is, we're seeing an exponential growth as we'd expect; we just want that exponent to show signs of decreasing, which it has. Data is your friend, not "sky is falling" reactions to less than expected increases.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 7:08 PM

okay, that's fair. And I hope you are right. Maybe the demographics/geography of our state are such that we won't get touched up that badly. I worry, though. We are lucky that we don't really have a huge transportation hub in state, which means probably not a ton of people from other countries/other areas desperate to get into a taxi at Greenville/Spartanburg air and infect yet more of us.

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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 6, 2020, 7:06 AM [ in reply to Re: The State once again buries the lede ]

The numbers for deaths from this are being skewed a bit as well. While this virus is highly contagious and particularly nasty....they’re not being completely honest with the data.

The great thing about statistics? You can pretty much arrive at any conclusion you desire.

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We do Chicken right...it's not just for frying anymore!


Confirmed tests... but I'm tired of explaining it.***


Apr 5, 2020, 6:18 PM



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Re: The State once again buries the lede


Apr 5, 2020, 7:35 PM

Thank you for the excellent data and information!

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