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Orange Blooded [2842]
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Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 9:45 AM
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So for the past two weeks I have heard of the legend of Joe Burrow and this unstoppable force that is LSU's offense. While Burrow and company are clearly talented and dominating much of their competition, I wanted to dig into the stats just a little deeper to compare the scoring of both Ohio State and LSU throughout the entire season. More specifically I wanted to see how the defenses they faced ranked in points allowed and how the teams fared against those defenses. I am including to images of the data, one before the first round and one after. LSU played an FCS opponent in Northwestern State while OSU did not face an FCS opponent this year. Since all rankings and stats are separated between FCS and FBS I ranked Northwestern state at 131 and made their average points allowed the same as the last team in FBS. Before any LSU Fans try and jump all over that decision please understand that NWST ranked as 116 in points allowed on the FCS rankings. If you will notice before the playoffs OSU actually performed on average almost 4 points better than LSU against the average points allowed. After the first round the gap closes to a little less than two points. However, LSU played the countries 64th best defense and OSU played the countries BEST defense. I was intrigued by the info and thought I would share it with everyone this morning. Anything can happen tonight but I see Clemson pulling this one out 38-30. LSU will get their yards but I trust Venables unit will hold LSU to more field goals than they would like to take.
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All-In [27366]
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Shhhhhh...Don't let him know yet.
Jan 13, 2020, 9:51 AM
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We're going to inform him tonight at his party.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 9:58 AM
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What I think is very interesting is that we held OSU 5 points below their lowest output of the season entering our game. That was against the best regular season defense they played in Penn St in a game where OSU left points on the board through turnovers.
Auburn held LSU to 23. UGA held them to 37.
It will be interesting to see where our number falls in comparison to the two best defensed that LSU played this season. My reasonable hope is that it falls half way between those two scores, and we hold LSU to 30.
If you told me right now that LSU scores 30, I would take it and hope our offense can get to 31.
It will interesting to see how we stack up against these numbers.
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Hall of Famer [24687]
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38-30...Clemson, of course. That's been my number for days.***
Jan 13, 2020, 10:00 AM
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Commissioner [905]
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Re: 38-30...Clemson, of course. That's been my number for days.***
Jan 13, 2020, 11:44 AM
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I am at 34-23
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Walk-On [104]
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Re: Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 10:10 AM
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Thanks for this very interesting. Curious if you've looked at how the good guys compare with the same criteria? Based on the 22pts above average we should realistically expect to give up ~33 pts tonight... dont know about y'all but I'm comfortable with that number.
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Hall of Famer [23994]
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Re: Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 10:21 AM
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yep. i feel like if we hold them to ~30ish points I think we win. I'll be shocked if we score less than 35...It'll be a huge disappointment with our OCs.
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Orange Blooded [2842]
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 11:30 AM
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We may hold LSU to more field goals than they would like, but another possibility occurs to me
Those stubborn Cajuns go for it on 4th down (repeatedly) and are shut down (repeatedly) and turn the ball over on downs.
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Commissioner [905]
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Re: Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 11:43 AM
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Should do the same with points allowed for both. If they average 48 vs reams that average giving up 27, that’s one piece of information. If CU holds teams to 14 who average 32( or whatever) that’s another. So which prevails? Our D gives up what we do on average as a % of the other team average? Say we normally hold teams to 35% of their season average. They average 48 so we give up about 17? From their side they score about 2x what other teams give up. So that’s about 28. So we give up the average of the 2, say about 23? Do same for both teams but only include power 5. Would be interesting to see. Obviously a lot of numbers but not too tough with excel. And of course team can give up or score more than average based on effort and home field and injuries etc. But by now you are who your record says you are.
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Orange Blooded [3044]
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Re: Statistical look at LSU and OSU scoring offense vs opponents
Jan 13, 2020, 12:30 PM
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TL will RUN wild in addition to his superb passing.
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