Re: SEC teams favored to win 9 of 10 bowl games......

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How would you pick the games?

Dec 14, 2015, 1:08 AM

SEC

LSU vs. TT
- I'd pick LSU. This was a gift match-up for them, as TT is 7-5 and has the second to last ranked defense in the whole country. Their rush defense is third to last in the country, so Fournette could end up with like 300 yards. LSU won't even need to try using their awful passing attack.

Auburn vs. Memphis
- I'm actually surprised Memphis isn't favored in this game. But Memphis lost 3 of their 4, and 2 of those games weren't even close. Auburn was a little bit better towards the end of the season, but were they playing so much better that the should be expected to beat a team that easily handled Ole Miss? I'd pick Memphis in this one.

NC State vs. Miss St
- These teams seem pretty equal. NC State's defense is a little better than Mississippi State's, and Mississippi State's offense is a little better than NC State's. I see this game being close, but Mississippi State has the better talent and has played better competition, so I'd expect them to win (even though I wouldn't be surprised at all if NC State won).

TAMU vs. UofL
- Neither of these teams have been great offensively, but TAMU has been a little better on offense. UofL has been better on defense than TAMU, but not by so much that I'd expect domination. This will also basically be a home game for TAMU in Dallas, so while I think this is a good match-up, I'd expect TAMU to win.

Michigan St. vs. Bama
- Mi. St., I think, is clearly the worst of the playoff teams. Bama got a gift when MSU moved up to #3 and OU was bumped down to 4th. While Michigan State has been solid on defense, that's entirely because of their run defense. That match-up could pose a problem for Bama if Mi. St. can slow Henry down enough to make Bama pass. But since Mi. St. doesn't do anything particularly well offensively, I can see them wearing down eventually. Bama wins.

Northwestern vs. Tennessee
- Northwestern is terrible offensively, but their defense has been very good. Tennessee as just OK on both sides of the ball. I can see this one being close because of NW's defense, but Tennessee has too many athletes. UT wins, but probably a close, low scoring game.

Michigan vs. Florida
- Two pretty bad offenses attached to two really good defenses face off. Unfortunately for Florida, their offense is historically bad without Will Grier, while Michigan's is serviceable. I see something like what happened in UF's game against Bama happening. UM wins.

Oklahoma St vs. Ole Miss
- Ole Miss is a lot more talented, but there might be some question marks with the Nkimdeches trying to sabotage themselves. OSU's defense is terrible, so it might not matter whether Mason Rudolph is ready to go against Ole Miss.

PSU vs. UGa
- I don't think PSU will be able to score on UGa. If UGa can put up just a few points, they should win this game. Of course, UGa will be breaking in a whole new coaching staff, so that could put things a little bit in question.

KSU vs. Arky
- Arky should win easily.

So, even going through the games in a little more detail, you're still looking reasonably at 8-2 for the SEC. If they lose all the games that should be close (PSU vs. UGa, UM vs. FL, NW vs. UT, NC St vs. Miss St, UofL vs. TAMU, Auburn vs. Memphis), you're still looking at no more than 5 or 6 losses. They'd basically have to lose every game where the match-up was close to have a losing record.

As far as the ACC's bowl match ups go, I wouldn't expect either NC State or UofL to be favored in their games agains SEC opponents, although I think both have the potential to win. The only teams I think ought to be favored are VT, FSU, and maybe UNC.

Message was edited by: camcgee®