Replies: 18
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Varsity [248]
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Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 9:40 AM
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Saw an interesting article today...both Super Bowl QB's were barely 3 stars in high school.Yep...Kapernick and Flacco were only 3 stars and played at Nevada and Deleware of all places. Also my genius brother found research that showed over the last 10 ys out of the Top 100 each year in recruiting, 42.8% were labeled "busts" 4 yrs later. The star system is not a science. You have to remember it is a money maker..a source of revenue for scouting services, magazines, and media. As an ex HS coach I can also attest that there are a lot of politics in recruiting. My purpose in this post is to only to remind all of us...the star system for 23 Tigers ended yesterday. Now it's the real world and I feel good about ALL of the guys Dabo signed yesterday..even the 3 stars!
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110%er [6851]
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Ditto!
Feb 7, 2013, 9:48 AM
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n/m
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CU Guru [1310]
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That "research" was in this week's Post & Courier***
Feb 7, 2013, 9:50 AM
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Standout [338]
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Re: That "research" was in this week's Post & Courier***
Feb 7, 2013, 10:24 AM
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I think that the OP noted that he read an article on that information. He didn't claim it as independent research.
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Orange Blooded [4947]
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Re: Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 10:08 AM
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You see these types of stats a lot but I think it has more to do with the mentality of the player, especially for QBs. While lots of NFL QBs were highly rated out of high school it seems many of the QBs who end up with long careers were not highly rated or were not even recruited by big name schools. I think it speaks to the mentality that QBs have to have to survive in the NFL. Players who have worked hard for everything they have and continue to do so once the reach the top. Sure you see flash in the pan type guys who have always been successful at every level but most of the time they don't work out long in the NFL. The big exception is the Manning brothers but I think that has more to do with the attitude Archie instilled in them at a young age.
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Varsity [248]
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Re: Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 10:22 AM
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Agree. Some of the high school ratings unintentionally factor in competition and strength of schedule,. For instance, there was a QB named Brock Berlin. He played at a private Christain school. Put up amazing stats, was a physical speciman and yes his private HS was proably the best in the South...however at UF he could'nt beat out a guy named Rex Grossman( who eventually did make the NFL) then transfereed to Miami where he barely beat out a guy named Derek Crudup..remember him? Of course you don't LOL He was generally considered a bust..my point is he really never was a 4 star or 5 star QB. It happens usually every recruiting cycle. What you have to look at is the OVERALL ranking a college gets. If every year Alabama, LSU, Oregon. ND atre in the top 10 in recruting and end in the top 10 in the polls...they are recruting well even if all the 4 and 5 stars don't pan oout to 4 and 5's. Clemson is now consistently in the top 15 in recruiting and our final poll standings are starting to reflect that. My opinion is our staff is doing a pretty good job of evaluating. You don't think Saban success is by telling his staff..."just go sign every 5 star on Rivals"..there has to be evalutaion followed by good coaching and hard work.
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Standout [338]
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Re: Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 10:31 AM
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It's incredibly easy to point out individual players who didn't meet expectations. On an individual basis, the ratings systems are marginally accurate. If, however, you look at bigger numbers, like comparing all the 5* recruits to all the 2* recruits, you'll find that about half the 5* recruits go on to "all star" level, meaning that they're at least all conference by their junior years. If you look at all the 2*s, that percentage is going to be more like 5%. The reason that it's easy to point out 2* players who didn't pan out is that there are thousands of 2* and 3* players. Out of that many kids, some are going to produce. The way the numbers work out, about half the all american team is made up of 4/5* and half of 3* and below. The thing is that there are only 300 4/5* players a year.
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Varsity [248]
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Re: Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 10:52 AM
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Agree. Sorry I thought that was my point..the expectations are higher for 4 and 5 stars yet for some reason due to the hype the average fan ses no value in 2 or 3 stars. I agree you probally can't win a national championship with only 2 and 3's, it just bothers me that people say "oh he's only a 3 star."
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110%er [6692]
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We know 2/3*s can turn out great, Gaines Adams (rip) is the
Feb 7, 2013, 11:05 AM
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#1 example. 2* to top 5 pick in the NFL draft.
However if I was given a choice between a team full of 4/5* guys and a team full of 2/3* guys I'm taking the 4/5* guys.
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Orange Blooded [3571]
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Heisman Trophy winner for 2012 was only a 3 star
Feb 7, 2013, 10:21 AM
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just goes to show that the stars don't always mean so much. i heard someone say yesterday, that you might be a five star in high school, but on that first day of practice in August, you are just another 2 star.
i did hear something interesting yesterday that does show how important recruting is....
of the last 11 National Champions, each one of those champions had a top 5 recruiting class in the 2-3 years prior to winning the national championship.
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Oculus Spirit [93650]
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Misconseptions:
Feb 7, 2013, 10:27 AM
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1. High school players that are 'not rated,' are bums.
2. A two star is twice as good as a one star and therefor a four star is twice as good as a two star.
3. A five star is 20% better than a four star.
4. A three star is an average player.
5. Only four and five star players are above average.
6. One and two star players are below average.
7. Math is the a tool used to evaluate players.
8. I have any clue what I'm talking about.
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Varsity [248]
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Re: Misconseptions:
Feb 7, 2013, 10:33 AM
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Best post so far my friend! And you are a lot less long winded than me and much smarter! lol
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Oculus Spirit [93650]
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Re: Misconseptions:
Feb 7, 2013, 10:38 AM
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Woah, braw. That's just the table of content of the Reader's Digest version, you haven't seen the the opening paragraph.
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Orange Blooded [2245]
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Re: Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 10:48 AM
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As was noted yesterday, when the stars sign their LOI, they becomes 0 stars till proven otherwise!
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Mascot [19]
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Re: Proof 3 stars
Feb 7, 2013, 11:00 AM
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good post
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110%er [6096]
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however, how many national champtionship teams had
Feb 7, 2013, 11:01 AM
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zero top 10 recruiting classes during the preceeding 4 years prior to their championship.
I would venture to say - NONE.
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Oculus Spirit [97703]
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Stars are awarded based on how a player plays in high
Feb 7, 2013, 11:41 AM
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school, with the dynamics and scheme that they run. That's all recruiters have to go on. Toss in college classes, freedom, a new team, new friends, a different dynamic among teammates, and a different offensive or defensive system, and the player may not pan out. Some under-rated players will thrive in the right college system. Others who were monsters in high school will fail in college.
That's why I don't really follow recruiting because it's a bunch of fans slobbering over highlight films of a high school kid playing high school ball. It's the coaches that really make the call in recruiting. I'm more than positive some of our 3-star guys will thrive because they are entering a system that fits them better at Clemson. I'm also sure some of our 4 and 5 star recruits will not pan out because of the opposite reason. They best case is to get a 4 or 5 star guy who already has the talent, and have him fit in like a glove in your system. Sammy Watkins was one of these guys, so was Spiller and James Davis. They were immediate impact players as freshmen.
We had a monster defensive class two years ago and they did not pan out nearly as well as we thought. That's because they didn't fit into Coach Steele's system. Then again, I'm not sure most players could fit into his system.
I'm happy with our class. Some will play as expected, some will over-achieve, and some will under-achieve. That's how it goes. On to UGA. Those guys will be loaded for bear when they come visit on August 31st.
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Oculus Spirit [93650]
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Re: Stars are awarded based on how a player plays in high
Feb 7, 2013, 11:52 AM
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If they don't lose a bunch to suspensions they'll be a handful for sure.
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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THIS!***
Feb 7, 2013, 11:47 AM
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Replies: 18
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