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YOUR BALANCE
More COVID-19 data for thought....
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More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 9:06 AM

A lot has been made that COVID-19 is much more deadly than the Flu. After looking at the data below, that may not be an entirely accurate statement. The data below is direct comparison of the current COVID-19 mortality vs the 2018 Flu mortality (2018 is the most recent by State listing provided by the CDC). States highlighted in yellow have an outright higher overall COVID-19 mortality than the 2018 Flu. However comparing a 6 month Flu season vs a 3 month outbreak of COVID-19 is not a balanced comparison. In order to get a more accurate comparison we need to look at the per month average of COVID-19 and Flu deaths. Those States highlighted in blue have a higher average of COVID-19 monthly deaths than the 2018 Flu.



Chart Assumptions:
- the USA COVID-19 season thus far is 3 months in duration (February, March, and April). An argument can easily be made that the COVID-19 season is 4 months and actually started in January but will leave that alone for now.

- The CDC does not provide a by State monthly Flu mortality rate for any calendar year. While it is likely some 2018 Flu deaths occurred outside of the typical Flu season, it is assumed that the overwhelming majority of the CDC 2018 Flu mortality numbers occurred during the typical six month Flu season of the calendar year (January, February, March, October, November, December).

There are clearly some States (NY, NJ, Connecticut, Michigan, Massachusetts) where the COVID-19 mortality is off the charts more deadly in comparison to the Flu. However, this is not the case for the majority of States, where the average COVID-19 monthly mortality rates are lower than they are for the 2018 Flu season. Considering the 2018 Flu mortality was inevitably reduced by the yearly Flu vaccine, I am a bit surprised the 2018 Flu is still outpacing COVID-19 in monthly deaths in 33 States. Hmmm...

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 9:15 AM

So you’re saying when you actually have an outbreak, covid is far more deadly.

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"Smelley, Garcia, and Beecher are going to lead you to 4-8." - york_tiger


Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 9:24 AM


So you’re saying when you actually have an outbreak, covid is far more deadly.



As of right now the data is showing that it depends on where you live. If you live in the North East - COVID-19 is far more deadly; however in 33 of the 50 States COVID-19 is not more deadly than the 2018 Flu in an average monthly mortality comparison. So a blanket statement "COVID-19 is far more deadly" is proving to be dependent on where you live and is not a totally accurate statement.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 9:31 AM

This is actually fallacious reasoning.

Your data isn’t proving it depends on where you live. It’s leaving off the important information, that some states have had fewer cases of covid than they did the flu in 2018.

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"Smelley, Garcia, and Beecher are going to lead you to 4-8." - york_tiger


Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 9:57 AM


This is actually fallacious reasoning.

Your data isn’t proving it depends on where you live. It’s leaving off the important information, that some states have had fewer cases of covid than they did the flu in 2018.



Maybe... But your assertion that some states have had fewer cases of COVID-19 than the 2018 Flu is ultimately un-provable since the actual number of COVID-19 infections is unknown (i.e. asymptomatic, and the hundreds of thousands that were not and have not been tested). There is simply no way to know for certain how many cases of COVID-19 actually existed/exists in every State. Since the beginning of April, there have been at least four studies in the USA on COVID-19 infection rates with two of the most recent being conducted by Stanford University and the University of Southern California. Regardless of who has conducted the study, the findings are all trending in the same direction; way more people have had COVID-19 than is reflected in the CDC total infection numbers. So... I would not assume that the COVID-19 infections is less than the 2018 Flu in each state - COVID-19 has a much higher "Rt factor" than the Flu and all indicators are that it is much more prevalent than the CDC infected numbers indicate.

Therefore the only real comparison that can be made is by counting bodies in the morgue that are attributed to each disease.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 11:04 AM

"Therefore the only real comparison that can be made is by counting bodies in the morgue that are attributed to each disease."

...as a percentage of the number of people who were infected by each disease.

Which is worse, a disease that infects only 10000 people per year but kills 99% of them or a disease that infects 990,000 people but kills 1% of them.

99% of 10000 is 9900 corpses.
1% of 990,000 is 9900 corpses.

Note: I made these numbers up for illustrative purposes and they are not related to COVID or flu numbers in any way that I am aware of.

Counting corpses is not really a good way of determining the danger of a disease.

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Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 11:16 AM

There are reports that suggest that deaths attributed to Covid19 are exaggerated and that Covid19 is being assigned as a cause of death when it was not the primary cause.

These reports can be challenged off course, but so can almost any report that has been made about the situation.

We just don’t know. We don’t have the facts.

Everything is subject to interpretation and the interpretations vary wildly.

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Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 12:13 PM

Exactly if someone dies from any illness with covid 19 symptoms it is considered a covid 19 death. Most of these deaths don't get tested for covid 19 after the fact because of the limited number of tests available.

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So what is the percentage of deaths that really aren't covid


May 3, 2020, 1:42 PM

give us the real number

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Re: So what is the percentage of deaths that really aren't covid


May 5, 2020, 11:21 AM

If I knew that I would know something no one knows. I just know what is going on because my girlfriend works in the medical field and keeps me up to date. I don't watch CNN and all the other bs journalists who claim to know everything when they know nothing.You know kind of like some of the people on here who just repeat what they read on the internet or see on tv.

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Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 3:56 PM [ in reply to Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable ]

there are also reports that there are thousands of people who have died of covid 19 but were counted as heart attack victims, or were assumed to have died of pneumonia or flu.

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Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 5:06 PM

"WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE FROM COVID-19!!!," said less than one percent of everybody.

But keep in mind, there was that one kid that died, so this thing can kill anyone, including you and YOUR ENTIRE FAMILY!
How can someone even breathe with something this terrifying around?

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"Anybody that says Coach Brownell is the best coach to come through Clemson is going to start an argument." -JP Hall


Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 5:07 PM

You are free to go lick the shopping cart handles at Walmart anytime you choose.

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Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 5:07 PM

why? is that your thang? is that what you did before The Plague?

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"Anybody that says Coach Brownell is the best coach to come through Clemson is going to start an argument." -JP Hall


Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 5:12 PM [ in reply to Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable ]

No, because you appear, as many Trump supporters do, to be very courageous with other people's lives.

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Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 3, 2020, 5:13 PM

You, like most totalitarian leftists, are very blithe about imposing tyranny on the proles.

The cool thing is, we are all Clemson Tiger fans.



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"Anybody that says Coach Brownell is the best coach to come through Clemson is going to start an argument." -JP Hall


Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 4, 2020, 12:37 AM


You, like most totalitarian leftists, are very blithe about imposing tyranny on the proles.

The cool thing is, we are all Clemson Tiger fans.





I'm an independent liberal, as far from 'leftist totalitarianism as you can get, and I love that cartoon.

And you are right my friend, we are Clemson men. So my disdain for some arguments only go so far and then stop. We are Clemson Nation. We all have the right to our opinions.

GREAT cartoon. Touche'

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Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable


May 5, 2020, 11:24 AM [ in reply to Re: Apparently, even deaths attributed to Covid19 are debatable ]

Always has to be about Trump. If it wasn't for Trump this country would be under North Korean or Iranian rule. I am so sick of you worthless pos democrats who think you are gods gift to politics. This virus didn't come from a bat like you morans believe. This virus has nothing to do with Trump yet some of you idiots would rather the country fold than admit Trump has done a good job.

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^^ She's a sensitive one


May 9, 2020, 8:31 PM

.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 10:58 AM [ in reply to Re: More COVID-19 data for thought.... ]

Sure, if you ignore the facts that we have herd immunity for flu, flu treatments, and flu vaccines and no shortage of hospital beds for flu patients in normal years but then flu still managed to kill almost 6000 people so far this year. COVID with all the advantages is has--humanity has no defenses against it--can only manage to kill 6x what flu has so far this year?

COVID should be scoring like Georgia Tech over Cumberland 222-0, not just like 63-17.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 7:38 PM

So COVID killing >10x than Flu in 2020 in less than half the time isn't impressive to you?

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 4, 2020, 2:20 PM [ in reply to Re: More COVID-19 data for thought.... ]

I'm not sure where you're getting your information from, but the CDC estimates between 24,000-62,000 people died from the flu this past flu season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm


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you do realize


May 3, 2020, 9:34 AM

that stay at home orders HAVE to reduce transmission. It is a very basic concept.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 9:56 AM

Yep if we had sporting events and other large gatherings it may have spread more quickly. I believe it isn't much worse than the flu it is just the fact that we have vaccines for the flu and we know how to treat the flu. This is just a new thing so it does make it worse at the moment but I do not believe the virus itself is far more serious than the flu. Still I am happy with what governments have done but we can only stay shut down for so long.

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Yep ... so far, so good, but time to modify the restrictions


May 3, 2020, 11:17 AM

to fit the situation on the ground.

Staying on general lock down is not a realistic option.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 10:05 AM [ in reply to you do realize ]


that stay at home orders HAVE to reduce transmission. It is a very basic concept.



And where did I state or imply that stay at home orders have not reduced transmission?

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staying at home is why the numbers look somewhat similar


May 3, 2020, 1:25 PM

to the flu in some locations. We won't know until Feb of next year, then we can put them side by side.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 11:07 AM [ in reply to you do realize ]

Well, what this episode has shown me is that we are willing to stop the world for a disease that is currently looking to be *maybe* 5x more deadly than the flu (in terms of counting corpses, but unknown lethality in terms of deaths per number of infected). But the 30k or so who die from flu every year, we say "meh". I thought the mantra was "If it saves even one life!..." but we seemed willing to write those folks off every single year.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 12:22 PM [ in reply to you do realize ]

Probably more correctly, the orders may have reduced the rate of infection, but never had the ability reduce the number of people who will ultimately get infected. We'd need perfectly effective lockdowns to last until we have a vaccine, which may be 2 years away or may never be developed (there's no vaccine for the common cold). This whole deal of essential vs non-essential and letting people go the the grocery store, to the liquor store, run up to the corner quickie mart to buy a pack of smokes, running drive-thrus, etc. may have had some effect on slowing down then rate of transmission, but that's all.

Because the virus is "in the wild" now, and there's no vaccine and no proven effective treatment, people will continue to get infected even with the imperfect lockdowns. Once the lockdowns are lifted, people will continue to get infected.

Ultimately, almost all people who are exposed to COVID will get past it with few problems (many may never even realize they were "sick"). A small subset who are exposed--when they are exposed because they *will* be--will get very sick. A subset of *those* will die *no matter what we do to save them*.

All we really have tried to do with all these lockdowns was to try to prevent the small fraction of the people who will get very sick and may die from dying solely because there we not enough facilities (hospital beds or ventilators). That is, Jim got COVID and died because there were no more ventilators but we're pretty sure Jim was among those would have recovered otherwise.

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Figures don't lie, but liars figure.


May 3, 2020, 12:38 PM

Given the vast number of liars with an ax to grind one way or the other, a fellow has to have a lot of salt grains on hand when he goes to looking at numbers.

For your consideration: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/


I am personally struck by these two points from the linked article.

1. "In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620."

2. "I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers."

I'm not ready to 'know' exactly what the score here actually is on flu vs Covid-19. But the statements cut from the linked info on the SA blog suggest why it is none of us have ever been really aware of the flu being a big issue.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 7:40 PM [ in reply to Re: you do realize ]

Theoretically, someone could get super sick with COVID twice before we even get a vaccine available. Scientists are thinking immunity will last 1-2 years after contracting.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 5:09 PM [ in reply to you do realize ]


that stay at home orders HAVE to reduce transmission. It is a very basic concept.




On that note Neal, India a country of 1.3 Billion people have had less than 1000 deaths from Covid-19.

They shut the country down for 3 weeks to great success.

Shutdowns suck. I'm tired of depleting my savings. But I don't like seeing Americans die, from the virus or anything else.

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Re: you do realize


May 3, 2020, 7:41 PM

India is like 70% rural and poor. There is 100% chance that we won't know their true deaths from COVID until they do a study sometime in the 2030s.

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It's posts like this...


May 3, 2020, 10:04 AM

that cause people to think it's ok to disregard safe practices. That's why you see so many people in grocery stores, restaurants, the jockey lot, etc. crowding around each other and not wearing a mask. Please be smart and use your common sense, people.

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Re: It's posts like this...


May 3, 2020, 10:15 AM

If posts like this make you think it is smart to disregard proper protocol, then you have a pretty weak constitution or you think everyone but you does. Posts like this just give us more information, but then again some people think they are the only ones that have the ability to handle the truth. I have much more faith in in Americans.

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Re: It's posts like this...


May 3, 2020, 10:18 AM [ in reply to It's posts like this... ]

TruTiger said:

that cause people to think it's ok to disregard safe practices. That's why you see so many people in grocery stores, restaurants, the jockey lot, etc. crowding around each other and not wearing a mask. Please be smart and use your common sense, people.



How in the world did you make that leap from the OP that it is OK to disregard safe practices? Looking and discussing data is not akin to disregarding safety practices but instead can provide us perspective on what is actually happening.

By the way - people are in grocery stores because they have to eat and no disease will ever change that requirement. All restaurants in the country are basically closed to all but take-out. As for retail stores - lots of people are going to them but do so based on how they view their risk. I personally wear a mask everywhere I go even though I'm in a low risk group as does my wife and her elderly parents.

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Re: It's posts like this...


May 3, 2020, 12:02 PM

" people are in grocery stores because they have to eat and no disease will ever change that requirement. "

You're just not thinking big enough. The local, state, and federal government can have properly equipped personnel (troops, maybe) in proper hazmat gear leave a food package on each doorstep. You'll eat what they give you and like it, or else. No one *needs* to go to the grocery store just to get food. We can similarly close down all liquor stores, convenience stores, hardware stores, heck all retail stores are basically non-essential at this point. Since people are having their food provided to them by the government, we don't need restaurants to be open at all.

So there's no reason for anyone to ever leave their house at all, we'll know that anyone on the street who is not part of the food delivery teams or some other sort of front-line first responder--we'll still have to let firemen put out fires and cops arrest domestic abusers (I say domestic abuser because since no one is allowed to leave their homes, there's won't be any other kind of crime going on)--we can pretty much assume that those folks are "bad people" and arrest them, or worse if they resist. Since they may be the infected, maybe we should just go ahead and shoot them and leave their bodies to be picked up by special crews.

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Re: It's posts like this...


May 4, 2020, 2:26 PM

What the #### did I just read?

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It absolutely is not posts like this. People are gonna do


May 3, 2020, 10:22 AM [ in reply to It's posts like this... ]

whatever they wanna do - regardless.

Dozens & dozens of examples every day.

Packaging on cigarettes say - YOU WILL DIE 1000 PAINFUL DEATHS BY SMOKING THESE.
Everywhere you go - people lighting them up.

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Brad Brownell: Only Larry freaking Shyatt has a WORSE overall winning percentage among Clemson basketball coaches since 1975. Let that sink in. It's Larry Shyatt & then Brad Brownell.


Re: It's posts like this...


May 3, 2020, 10:23 AM [ in reply to It's posts like this... ]

Don’t shoot the messenger.Had someone tell me that other than the N95 masks, the paper, cloth, neck gators were very inefficient at stopping virus transmission?Has anyone seen this?I wear a neck gator when at grocery store.

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Yeah #### it. Just open everything back up. Schools and all


May 3, 2020, 10:24 AM [ in reply to It's posts like this... ]

Free babysitting, right?

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There's something in these hills.


Re: It's posts like this...


May 3, 2020, 11:09 AM [ in reply to It's posts like this... ]

Given the number of people flu kills every year, I hope you're prepared to maintain these social distancing, masks, closed businesses, etc. rules in perpetuity. Or is it ok that people get killed by the flu?

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We have a vaccine for the flu.***


May 3, 2020, 11:21 AM



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Re: We have a vaccine for the flu.***


May 3, 2020, 12:04 PM

Yep, we have a vaccine for the flu, flu treatments, herd immunity for the flu. And it still kills 30-50K every year. But we've never stopped the world for them, right? Because all the things we're doing to reduce COVID would also work at reducing the flu, right? But we've never once considered doing it.

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Because the flu isn't politicized every year like this has


May 3, 2020, 1:03 PM

been.

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if 30k-50k people would have been the max deaths


May 3, 2020, 1:41 PM [ in reply to Re: We have a vaccine for the flu.*** ]

from covid, we wouldn't have shut the whole country down. We are close to 70,000 deaths in two months with by far the most devastating stay at home orders in any of our lifetimes...2 months.

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Re: if 30k-50k people would have been the max deaths


May 3, 2020, 2:33 PM

Well, I'm over 50 and these are the FIRST stay-at-home orders of my lifetime.

But I remember when SARS was going to kill people by the busload, too. I remember when bird flu was going to run rampant and kill millions of people. I remember in 2009 when almost 60M people got H1N1, 250K people hospitalized, and almost 12K died.

The same guy who wrote the alarmist Imperial College report that said that 2M people in the US would die of COVID made similarly alarming projections in earlier pandemics and was way wrong those times.

His fellow epidemiologists don't think much of his models it seems...“In 2009, one of Ferguson’s models predicted 65,000 people could die from the Swine Flu outbreak in the UK — the final figure was below 500.” Business Insider also noted, “Michael Thrusfield, a professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, told the paper he had ‘déjà vu’ after reading the Imperial paper, saying Ferguson was responsible for excessive animal culling during the 2001 Foot and Mouth outbreak. Ferguson warned the government that 150,000 people could die. Six million animals were slaughtered as a precaution, costing the country billions in farming revenue. In the end, 200 people died.”

But hey, if he keeps making these projections, maybe he'll eventually be right, right? But it sure seems like his models are designed to get headlines than to be accurate. Maybe this is the one even. So far it doesn't look like it.

May 7, 2003 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) today estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%, significantly higher than previous estimates. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%.

Re: bird flu epidemic in 2005: Associated Press medical writer Margie Mason reported that health experts expected the virus would mutate into a form easily spread from person to person, “igniting a global outbreak that kills millions.”

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Re: We have a vaccine for the flu.***


May 5, 2020, 11:32 AM [ in reply to We have a vaccine for the flu.*** ]

No we don't. I took a flu shot for 4 years. Got the flu all 4 years. Haven't taken the "vaccine" the last 3. Haven't even had a cold the last 3 years. Just a sinus infection that came from seasonal allergies.There is no vaccine that prevents the flu. It may help some but it is in no way preventing you from getting the flu.

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Did you actually have the flu?


May 9, 2020, 8:39 PM

Positive test and everything all four years? The real flu is pretty rough.
A LOT of people mistake a bad cold for the flu.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 10:13 AM

Some people also don't seem to understand that we have vaccine for the flu and treatment, yet in many states there are more deaths for flu than Covid 19. To me, that would indicate that flu is far more dangerous. What would the death rates be for flu if we did not have vaccine and treatment?

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Don't forget that CARS cause more DEATHS than


May 3, 2020, 10:28 AM

ANY of those diseases!!!

bAn CaRs!!!!1

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There's something in these hills.


Re: Don't forget that CARS cause more DEATHS than


May 3, 2020, 11:09 AM

We would if people actually believed it when they say "It's worth it to save even one life."

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That's wrong


May 9, 2020, 8:57 PM [ in reply to Don't forget that CARS cause more DEATHS than ]

At 80,000, COVID has killed twice the number of people in the US who die by all vehicular accident in a year (including motorcycles). We do let idiots drive motorcycles without helmets in many states (for their freedom) and then pay for their medical care one way or another if they survive accidents.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 11:40 AM [ in reply to Re: More COVID-19 data for thought.... ]

Tiger Links, what would the flu deaths be if everyone took the flu shot? Much lower. Clever to make your case by "in some states". Aren't numbers wonderful.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 12:08 PM

Since flu kills 30-50k people every year, and they could be saved if more than 45% of people bothered to get vaccinated? By COVID logic "if it saves even one life" and the willingness to pay trillions of dollars for lockdowns, we should probably make flu vaccine mandatory for every single man, woman, and child in the country, with failure to get yours punishable by prison at least, maybe by death.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 10:20 AM

Tabby, lots of data using apples to oranges logic to prove a desired result. I think I will stick with most scientists and Drs who say otherwise.

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Why does everything need to be so #### political


May 3, 2020, 11:02 AM

####### tired of it.

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Amen***


May 3, 2020, 11:20 AM



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The media has worked for decades to make it so.


May 3, 2020, 1:25 PM [ in reply to Why does everything need to be so #### political ]

It's called propaganda and brainwashing.

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Re: The media has worked for decades to make it so.


May 3, 2020, 3:54 PM

Tabby been conned. Ya’ll looking to Fox News for medical advice are being conned. Remember fox promoting the two urgent care docs in CA last week? 100% fraud. If you guys wanna see real data go back n listen to the Gilead earnings call this past week. You can’t con the audience on an earnings call, at least not more than once or twice, if you do your stock will be hammered. Listen to earnings calls for others like MRNA, SNY, PFE, JNJ, GSK, ABT. You’ll get a sense of realities and prospects for testing, treatment and vaccine.

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Re: More COVID-19 data for thought....


May 3, 2020, 5:06 PM

Really, we're doing the flu thing again?

In 2 months Covid 19 has killed more people than
all car crashes in 2019
all flu deaths in 2019
all deaths in Afganistan in 19 years
all deaths in Vietnam in 17 years

This, in 2 months:


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The bottom line


May 3, 2020, 7:19 PM

https://youtu.be/gfLtWQ3Kjwc

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40 million people had the flu in 2018.***


May 4, 2020, 11:08 AM



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So what's your point?


May 7, 2020, 10:51 PM

?

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