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YOUR BALANCE
For those that think we overreacted
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For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 1:52 PM

due to the falling death projections (primarily by IHME) of ~200,000 deaths down to ~60,000 deaths.

Please keep in mind that these projections are assuming that we keep the same government-mandated social distancing in place until END OF MAY, when the projections show that we have ~50 deaths/day compared to the ~2,000 we are currently having.

I just don't see how much of America will be patient enough to keep up this level of social distancing up for another 7 weeks, especially in the last few weeks when there are not many deaths anymore.

My guess is that there will be a relaxing of the rules prior to the end of May, which will lead to a second peak at some point in the Summer.

The point is: no need to say that we overreacted due to decreasing death projections unless you plan on staying at home until the end of May, because the projection will almost assuredly go back up if we release distancing requirements at the end of April.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 1:59 PM



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Aspiring member of the TigerNet Sewer Dwellers


Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:18 PM
Oh Brother.jpg(52.0 K)



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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:20 PM



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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:31 PM

So the models are right, no matter how wrong they are? Covid and global warming alarmists must use the same “super computer”.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:41 PM

remember the 100,000 to 200,000 projection was put out by donald and committee!

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:48 PM

ret1943 said:

remember the 100,000 to 200,000 projection was put out by donald and committee!


BS. This info was put out by Mao Tse Fauci and Ludmilla Birx.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 3:40 PM

And, they wouldn't have said squat and stood next to him without his permission. Also, Trump repeated the numbers.

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Ignorance CAN be bliss....***


Apr 10, 2020, 9:04 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]



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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 13, 2020, 2:09 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]

svaughan said:

ret1943 said:

remember the 100,000 to 200,000 projection was put out by donald and committee!


BS. This info was put out by Mao Tse Fauci and Ludmilla Birx.




Birx and Fauci don't do projections, they just read them. It was the Imperial College of London, the Harvard’s Global Health Institute, George Washington U...etc. The projections by the Imperial College got everyone, finally, moving.

"Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), says the swings in projections were a result of more data becoming available."

"Novel" virus' are just that, novel. They are previously unknown to science and for which humans have no defense. Modeling them is a difficult task.

But you keep reading that right-wing bullchit and stay ignorant. We'll still love ya.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:49 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]

No I don't remember that. Can you provide details on how they just pulled the numbers out of thin air.

tia

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:53 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]

They used the IHME model for those numbers, the same model that the OP is citing.

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Brad Brownell: more losses than any other coach in school history.


You realize a model by definition is wrong


Apr 10, 2020, 2:54 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]

It must be calibrated and refined for accuracy. I think they have done an outstanding job collecting data and tuning the models to represent reality. This is not a political issue. It is math and science.

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Math and science ARE political issues though. One side


Apr 10, 2020, 2:56 PM

believes in them; the other doesn't.

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Re: Math and science ARE political issues though. One side


Apr 10, 2020, 3:55 PM

I support trump and believe in math and science. There are alot of us out there, don’t let your friends convince you otherwise. I’ll give you a million dollars if you can get Bernie supporters to land on the moon. You know, those people that are good at math and science.

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Re: Math and science ARE political issues though. One side


Apr 10, 2020, 4:01 PM

At least Bernie supporters know there is a moon.I think the Biden bro’s forgot.

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So maybe Billary had it right about some DEPLORABLES...***


Apr 10, 2020, 9:05 PM [ in reply to Re: Math and science ARE political issues though. One side ]



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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 2:57 PM

If some re-open it will be under the new norm.
I’m 65 and also underlying risk and playing golf since we re-opened.We are all hyper aware of the guidelines in place.There are no Covid-19 cases in small town where I live.Everyone on Facebook so news travels fast.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 3:46 PM

I thought we were supposed to hit 200k two weeks ago?

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 4:10 PM

Yep .... that was the same computer model that had us under water from AGW in 2015.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 10, 2020, 5:39 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]

We did, we’re currently at 430k.

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 13, 2020, 3:12 PM [ in reply to Re: For those that think we overreacted ]

By the time they count all the people with symptoms of covid (even though tested neg), all the car fatalities that test positive, hospice patients that test positive and accidental deaths test positive the number will be reached. These experts used all the social distance and locked inside models to get 200,000-400,000 deaths. Dont forget the end of times 2,000,000+ deaths....

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BS,projections were IF all steps were taken


Apr 10, 2020, 6:07 PM

Glad you POS shot your wad, they'll never shut the country down again

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Re: BS,projections were IF all steps were taken


Apr 13, 2020, 8:58 AM

Well, they will in November when this flares up again, but you were close.

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Re: BS,projections were IF all steps were taken


Apr 13, 2020, 12:54 PM

It's going to flare up again as soon as the sheltering people stop sheltering. Maybe not as bad, but everyone has or are going to come into contact with it at some point. I don't understand why some of the "science experts" on this board think it's mean spirited to say that. Its BASIC immunology. So lets jist stay inside forever.


Message was edited by: TigerFanX2000®


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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 13, 2020, 10:39 AM

https://pjmedia.com/blog/modeling-covid-19-and-the-lies-of-multiculturalism/

We absolutely overacted in most areas and under reacted in densely populated areas

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Re: For those that think we overreacted


Apr 13, 2020, 10:39 AM

https://pjmedia.com/blog/modeling-covid-19-and-the-lies-of-multiculturalism/

We absolutely overacted in most areas and under reacted in densely populated areas

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