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Replies: 53
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Orange Blooded [3742]
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Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 8:52 AM
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right now if the committee came out with a poll this week and judged every team based on their performance/ schedule so far only on this year. I think they'd have 4 SEC teams (Bama, UGA, LSU, FLA), Okla, and tOSU ahead of us right now. We'd be battling with Wisc for that 7th spot.
Now the SEC teams will eventually have a last man standing so if we keep winning we'll still make the final 4, but based on the eye test right now 7th is probably where we deserve to be at this point if you just looked at this season in a vacuum. Fortunately, for us we have some equity built up because of last year and Dabo's teams traditionally get better after it reaches the mid-point of the season.
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All-In [40929]
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LOL
Oct 6, 2019, 8:55 AM
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you have zero clue how the committee would vote obviously
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: LOL
Oct 6, 2019, 9:06 AM
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Neither do you in fact , so there is that of course. Truth is he is correct based upon THIS season and how it has gone so far. I love our Tigers but I prefer to view things without beer goggles or after a long pull on the orange Kool-Aid. I hope by CFP time the team has come together , the offense figures out whatever is wrong and our D-line continues to grow but right now we got issues to fix. Thinking otherwise is just homerism.
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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There really is no need to argue over something that...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:11 AM
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we can never know the answer to.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: There really is no need to argue over something that...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:38 AM
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Well while technically true one can make obeservations on how the teams have looked thus far and play CFP committee in your own mind.
Given the firmly held belief the SEC is just better in the media minds so any win is a quality win.
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Starter [356]
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Re: LOL
Oct 6, 2019, 9:42 AM
[ in reply to Re: LOL ] |
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I agree completely! We don’t look like a playoff team thus far. If we continue to plat tentatively it will be difficult to see us making the top 4. Yes, we’re blowing up stats in most games but stats matter only to the loser. The UNC game was so unbelievably awful, except for W, I’m at a complete loss as to what is going on so far? Trevor, ETN, Justin Ross among others have looked different this year, not in a good way. Hope this week and last weeks practices has been brutal and educational for both players and coaches. They need Something to wake them up from this stupor they’re in.
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All-American [557]
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Re: LOL
Oct 6, 2019, 10:57 AM
[ in reply to Re: LOL ] |
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But that's not the tigernet way-
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Pretty long post about something that doesn’t matter.***
Oct 6, 2019, 8:57 AM
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Head Coach [797]
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Re: Pretty long post about something that doesn’t matter.***
Oct 6, 2019, 9:12 AM
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Ha. Agreed FM.
In good humor though I would agree they would rank us behind OSU, UGA, and perhaps Bama. If you pay attention to their comments each year though they do look at all 3 phases so im not sure they rank us behind a poor Oklahoma D, mediocre LSU D (though they have 2 good wins) and an Average at best Florida O.
Wisconsins schedule is too poor to stack up thus far.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Pretty long post about something that doesn’t matter.***
Oct 6, 2019, 10:29 AM
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I think that's an interesting question. Let's look at the statistics of the unbeaten P5 teams (not Wake).
Statistics
Alabama has the #3 scoring offense, #3 total offense, #30 total defense, and #13 scoring defense. Avg: 12.25.
Clemson has the #16 total offense, #20 scoring offense, #6 total defense, #9 scoring defense. Avg. 12.75
Ohio State wins the mythical "eye test" by a landslide. Statistically, they are the #8 total offense, #4 scoring offense, #3 total and #3 scoring defense. Avg. 4.5.
LSU is the #2 total offense, #1 scoring offense, #17 total defense, #29 scoring defense. Avg. 12.25.
Oklahoma is the #1 total offense, #2 scoring offense, #46 total defense, #25 scoring defense. Avg. 18.5
UGA is the #11 total offense, #12 scoring offense, #13 total defense, #7 scoring defense. Avg. 10.75
Penn State is the #12 total offense, #5 scoring offense, #4 total defense, #2 scoring defense. Avg. 5.75.
Florida is the #60 total offense, #53 scoring offense, #11 total defense, #5 scoring defense. Avg. 32.25.
Wisconsin is the #32 total offense, #11 scoring offense, #1 total defense, #1 scoring defense. Avg. 11.25.
QB Play of these teams
1. Tua - 76.4% completions for 1,718 yards, 23 touchdowns, 0 INT, 2 rushing TD
2. Trevor - 61.8% completions for 1,131 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 INT, 4 rushing TD
3. Fields - 69.5% completions for 1,298 yards, 18 touchdowns, 1 INT, 8 rushing TD
4. Burrow - 78.4% completions for 1,864 yards, 22 touchdowns, 3 INT, 2 rushing TD
5. Jalen - 75.2% completions for 1,523 yards, 14 touchdowns, 2 INT, 7 rushing TD
6. Fromm - 77.5% completions for 1,076 yards, 8 touchdowns, 0 INT, 0 rushing TD
7. Clifford - 66.7% completions for 1,443 yards, 12 touchdowns, 2 INT, 2 rushing TD
8. Trask - 72.2% completions for 881 yards, 7 touchdowns, 2 INT, 2 rushing TD (played in less games)
9. Coan - 74.6% completions for 939 yards and 7 touchdowns, 1 INT, 2 rushing TD
As far as strength of schedule, most teams have played one very good opponent, but some have been significantly harder than others. If I'm ranking SOS myself as of this moment, I have: 1. Georgia, 2. LSU, 3. Florida, 4. Wisconsin, 5. Ohio State, 6. Clemson, 7. Penn State, 8. Oklahoma, 9. Alabama. 5-8 are basically a wash though, as I see those schedules as very close in difficulty.
Based on these stats, if I were making the playoff rankings today, I'd have:
1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. LSU
6. Bama
7. Clemson
8. Oklahoma
9. Florida
10. Notre Dame (Avg. is higher than UF at 27.5, but they lost to UGA - Wake is at 42.5 and has the worst unbeaten schedule).
Not that I think it really matters. Clemson's defense has been surprisingly good despite being a bunch of new guys needing game reps. Lawrence's stats are pretty abysmal (#70 in completion percentage, #34 in passing yards, #40 in passing TDs, and #57 in passing efficiency). Something may be wrong there, but I think Clemson's offensive woes come down to the offensive line (and Trevor's lack of experience in shifting protection). He hasn't had the time to make reads (and also that explains why Etienne has been a non-factor since GT), which has led to some bad decisions and bad mechanics. When he got the time, he has looked good. I think the offensive line's issues are pretty manageable, since it seems to come down to them not getting leverage but taking on guys standing straight up. I think reps can fix that. If Clemson can get their offense down to the top 10, which seems reasonable considering the talent that is on that team, then their statistical average would be #8.75, or the third best average in the country.
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: Pretty long post about something that doesn’t matter.***
Oct 6, 2019, 11:00 AM
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DeafOrangutan - you deserve a TU just because of the sheer amount of data analyis that you have done!! While I am big believer of stats, the season is still young and the statistics will change week to week.
It will be great to see how the stats you have presented change from week to week - TIA.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: Pretty long post about something that doesn’t matter.***
Oct 6, 2019, 11:12 AM
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Oh yeah, I think it can change dramatically. The season is young. The good news is that while Clemson looks worse than a lot of the other contenders, they've been playing near their floor of potential. Meanwhile, Fields has been mauling defenses that can't put any pressure on him. He always had a fantastic arm (I incorrectly thought he was better for us than Lawrence when we were recruiting them - mainly because I thought his style was closer to Deshaun), but his issue was always going through his progressions. I'm very curious how he'll do against Wisconsin and Penn State, and looking forward to seeing how close to its ceiling Ohio State is.
Maybe I'll do updates on these stats as the season progresses to see how teams evolve, especially after their first byes.
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All-TigerNet [10121]
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Re: Pretty long post about something that doesn’t matter.***
Oct 6, 2019, 12:29 PM
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Good - that would be interesting - Orangutan... Also - interesting to see how this ranking compares to the committee’s ranking...
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110%er [5012]
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All-TigerNet [10121]
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All-TigerNet [10572]
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Re: Not that i matter but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:01 AM
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I took the t off of it for you
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:02 AM
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You have no idea, nor does anyone.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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We do you think we have no idea?
Oct 6, 2019, 9:20 AM
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We have 5 years of committee rankings to look at and while the members change a bit each year, their criteria and the way they rank teams has remained very consistent.
They put a ton of weight in the "strength of record" metric while also valuing "game control" and quality wins very highly. Occasionally the chairman will reference the good old "eye test" which I believe they use to justify any inconsistencies in the rankings.
I've been able to pretty accurately predict the committee rankings (at least the top 5 or 10) for 3 or 4 years now. I dont always agree with their rankings but they've been pretty consistent year in and year out with what they value.
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All-In [40100]
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One thing that was consistent is Clemson being in the top four for
Oct 6, 2019, 9:22 AM
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Four years in a row
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All-In [48078]
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Re: We do you think we have no idea?
Oct 6, 2019, 9:25 AM
[ in reply to We do you think we have no idea? ] |
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We would never be 7. I feel comfortable saying that much.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: We do you think we have no idea?
Oct 6, 2019, 9:29 AM
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Maybe but 5 or 6 is not out the realm either. Currently my top group looks like this:
Bama
tOSU
LSU
Oklahoma
Clemson or UGA
Wisconsin
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: We do you think we have no idea?
Oct 6, 2019, 9:34 AM
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Now out of that group they cannibalize each other during the season in the SEC, knocking a couple out. Same with tOSU and Wisconsin. Toss in PSU too.
In the end I see us no worse than 3rd in the final CFP poll. Most likely Clemson getting tOSU in the semi game. Bama getting Oklahoma again which would be fun with the Tua/Hurts thing.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: We do you think we have no idea?
Oct 6, 2019, 9:35 AM
[ in reply to Re: We do you think we have no idea? ] |
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I agree. I could see 5 or 6. Anyway, when do they come out with first one?
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Last week you were scared of Auburn...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:42 AM
[ in reply to Re: We do you think we have no idea? ] |
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This week Auburn gets handled by Florida, with ease, but no mention of Florida on your list?
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Last week you were scared of Auburn...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:44 AM
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Nope, neither is really a threat. Auburn is typical for a Gus team, one week look great and the next he seems to game plan them out the picture.
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Last week you were scared of Auburn...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:47 AM
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SO? Up to that point of yesterday Auburn had looked good, like I said Gus costs that team in games and it changes nothing I said prior to yesterday.
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Last week you were scared of Auburn but this week you’re...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:55 AM
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not scared of Florida, who is still undefeated, and beat Auburn handily this week. Last week Auburn looked good, this week they didn’t. Week one, Florida looked bad, this week they didn’t. Is it eye test? Is it strength of schedule?
This is precisely why the playoff committee waits until November. Maybe you should too?
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Last week you were scared of Auburn but this week you’re...
Oct 6, 2019, 10:39 AM
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not scared of Florida, who is still undefeated, and beat Auburn handily this week. Last week Auburn looked good, this week they didn’t. Week one, Florida looked bad, this week they didn’t. Is it eye test? Is it strength of schedule?
This is precisely why the playoff committee waits until November. Maybe you should too?
Gus was bound to screw at least 2 up over the season, they did look good prior. Now Florida is playing a QB that had exactly 1 Div 1 offer and has not started since frshman year of HS. Mullen is a dang good coach but he is not gonna be able to hide it all year.
Yes the CFP committtee waits but that does not preclude some serious guesses/opinions on the the current top group. Yes it is mostly eyeball because we really do not know how bad some of the teams are yet, at week 6 we have a pretty good idea though. Our best win is A&M and they are not looking very good. Just saying as was the OP based upon what we have seen so far we are at best #5 RIGHT NOW. It will of course change by game 12 due to a lot of factors,SEC is gonna eat their own . Same with the Big10. In the end we will be in the top 4 but if things are not fixed it may not matter.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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That's because the rankings are never released this early
Oct 6, 2019, 8:37 PM
[ in reply to Re: We do you think we have no idea? ] |
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and by November we've typically separated ourselves from a lot of the other teams. I'm not sure we would actually be 7th right now, but can you make a good argument for why we should be much higher?
We are currently 5th in SOR, 8th in game control, and we have one decent win which may not look so decent by the end of the year when A&M finishes 7-5 (or worse). As of right now though, it's still a decent win.
I can say one thing pretty confidently though. Even though they aren't actually that good, Florida would currently be ranked ahead of us.
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All-In [40929]
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Last year the 1st playoff rankings 1st 6 teams matched the
Oct 6, 2019, 10:41 AM
[ in reply to We do you think we have no idea? ] |
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AP exactly. This year the #2 in the AP would end up #7. Makes sense to you.
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110%er [7555]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:37 AM
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You been listening way to much to those ESPN and SEC channel talking heads.......but I agree with you they will all do their part to talk Clemson down as much as they can because they want no part of Clemson come playoff time......because they know if that happens the results will be the same as last year......Go Tigers!!!!!!
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:42 AM
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I really truly don't think that they think we are as good this year. I am a Clemson homer and I dont think we are as good.
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Scout Team [171]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 12:08 PM
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Dimes to doughnuts, if the committee voted today, we would be on the outside looking in, probability at 7 or 8. But they are not voting this week and a lot can happen between now and then. I think Clemson has to do more than “just win”. If we think that is the only answer, then we also have to hope for some of these other teams lose a game. Attrition will occur in the SEC. Clemson must get the offense at least clicking on 6 cylinders in order to help the committee see that they are in fact building as a team to make the compelling argument. A few more close wins with adversity is not enough to tip the scales because of strength of schedule. Problem is all of the other teams being considered in front of the Tigers do not appear to be as much of a work in progress at this point explaining all of the anxiety. If we do not start blasting inferior opponents, we may find ourselves claiming a “national championship” without playing in one like UFC did several years ago.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:42 AM
[ in reply to Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings ] |
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Look, our defense line is in no way as dominating as last years. We are prone to getting gashed on the run against a good team. BV is doing a masterful job of limiting points and adapting while the guys get better. We have had issues in the secondary and it has not cost us since opposing QB's have not been able to hit wide open WR's or they have flat out dropped the ball.
Our O-line has not been opening holes for the RB's against anyone with a pulse yet either. Which ahs caused too much pressure on TL.
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Hall of Famer [24986]
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honestly I don;t think the committee
Oct 6, 2019, 9:46 AM
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would punish us for the close UNC win as much as people seem to think. Last year the committee barely reacted at all to close wins vs blowouts. They seemed to downplay style points and would just see a win as a win. I remember several times raising an eyebrow when a team was not moved up or down after a lackluster win or an impressive blowout victory.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Correct, but we also have no quality wins
Oct 6, 2019, 9:53 AM
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on the schedule this year. A&M is going to lose 5 or 6 games.
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Heisman Winner [140468]
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Maybe, maybe not.***
Oct 6, 2019, 9:58 AM
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CU Guru [1453]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:49 AM
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Agree that we're on the fringe right now...4...5..or 6. We have to win out and we're in!
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Orange Blooded [4048]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 9:56 AM
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And Auburn would have been the number one team 24 hours ago too.
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Orange Blooded [4820]
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we just need to win out...
Oct 6, 2019, 9:56 AM
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...there is no way that the undefeated acc champion gets left out of the playoff for a 2nd 1 loss sec team.
If it were to happen, the whole thing would be a farce.
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Orange Blooded [3507]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 10:05 AM
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right now if the committee came out with a poll this week and judged every team based on their performance/ schedule so far only on this year. I think they'd have 4 SEC teams (Bama, UGA, LSU, FLA), Okla, and tOSU ahead of us right now. We'd be battling with Wisc for that 7th spot.
Now the SEC teams will eventually have a last man standing so if we keep winning we'll still make the final 4, but based on the eye test right now 7th is probably where we deserve to be at this point if you just looked at this season in a vacuum. Fortunately, for us we have some equity built up because of last year and Dabo's teams traditionally get better after it reaches the mid-point of the season.
It doesn't matter at all right now. How they would vote right now makes no difference. I'll wait til Dec and Jan when it actually matters.
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Oculus Spirit [90819]
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I had us at #5 or 6 presently but after reading stats I'm concerned
Oct 6, 2019, 10:58 AM
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With TL's stats ( not compared to last year) but this year vs other QB's!
TL - 8 TD's & 5 INT
Tua - 23 TD's & 0 INT
Fields - 18 TD's & 1 INT
Burrough - 22 TD's & 3 INT
Hurt - 14 TD's & 2 INT
Fromm - 8 TD's & 0 INT
And Trevor is ranked:
#70 in Competition %
#34 in passing yds
#57 in passing efficiency
#40 in passing TD's
SAYING:
Eye test tells you something's amiss..from him in reads or taking too much time, or his Oline protection, or his RB not blocking rusher & TL being sacked or flushed, WR'ers not getting separation, WR'ers dropping balls, etc.
What you think?
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1st Rounder [603]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 10:54 AM
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Dabo has us where he wants us to be at this point in the season!
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Orange Blooded [2407]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 12:05 PM
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Man crush on Dabo? he definitely does not have us where he wants us. That is an idiotic statement. So he liked what happened in NC? I'm hoping we will get there, but to say what you said. .wow. Just go hug a friggin tree.
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Orange Blooded [2418]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 11:39 AM
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Ehh Maybe. they would still weigh 4-0 vs P5 with one of them ranked. 5th would be as far as we would fall but I doubt they drop us out of top 4 until we lose.
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Orange Blooded [3290]
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 11:51 AM
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LSU schedule so far
Aug. 31 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Sept. 7 at Texas
Sept. 14 NORTHWESTERN STATE
Sept. 21 at Vanderbilt
Sept. 28 Open Date
Oct. 5 UTAH STATE
I don't see LSU having done enough to be ranked top 2. They are on par with Ga. I'm not yet sold on Texas. LSU has Florida and Texas has Oklahoma this week, so we will see.
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Orange Blooded [2407]
TigerPulse: 72%
Posts: 4101
Joined: 4/12/10
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 12:04 PM
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I think we would be 5th now.
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CU Medallion [52329]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 23015
Joined: 10/10/11
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One thing about stats
Oct 6, 2019, 12:27 PM
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Most consider the fact that Clemson's starters played a lot less than other teams who padded them.
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CU Medallion [51531]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 43078
Joined: 8/10/04
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Based on what? The sour feeling because we didn’t score 60
Oct 6, 2019, 12:33 PM
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against UNCheat?
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Orange Blooded [2182]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 2478
Joined: 10/10/13
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 12:53 PM
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You're rarely accurate
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Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 12:55 PM
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"Not that it matters" - You should have stopped after this part.
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Commissioner [970]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2416
Joined: 4/2/10
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Re: Not that it matters but we'd be #7 in the playoff rankings
Oct 6, 2019, 5:29 PM
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So, who amongst you wasn't to petition the CFP committee to from hee on select the 4 playoff teams after the fifth week of the season. I don't know (or want to know) how to set up a poll to find out how many tnetters support this.
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All-In [36409]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 21512
Joined: 10/27/03
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Fake News***
Oct 6, 2019, 6:16 PM
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