Tiger Board Logo

Donor's Den General Leaderboards TNET coins™ POTD Hall of Fame Map FAQ
GIVE AN AWARD
Use your TNET coins™ to grant this post a special award!

W
50
Big Brain
90
Love it!
100
Cheers
100
Helpful
100
Made Me Smile
100
Great Idea!
150
Mind Blown
150
Caring
200
Flammable
200
Hear ye, hear ye
200
Bravo
250
Nom Nom Nom
250
Take My Coins
500
Ooo, Shiny!
700
Treasured Post!
1000

YOUR BALANCE
Real numbers on covid?
storage This topic has been archived - replies are not allowed.
Archives - General Boards Archive
add New Topic
Replies: 28
| visibility 1

Real numbers on covid?


May 3, 2020, 9:27 AM

I know the hyperbole will trigger some, but focus on the numbers in the article.

Death rate is really .75÷ in my. Th are are probably tens of millions already infected and have no symptoms. This ain't the 2 or 3 or 7 % death rates we've been told. Not blaming anyone, no on knee. But now we are getting better data, time to rethink opening, no?

https://townhall.com/columnists/kevinmccullough/2020/04/23/antibody-testing-proves-weve-been-had-n2567516

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg2005_majors_champ.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-xtiger.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Re: Real numbers on covid?


May 3, 2020, 9:49 AM

I've read enough townhall.com to know it's crap, but I hope you're right and the numbers are looking better.

2024 purple level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Instead of reporting New Daily Cases for any state or area,


May 3, 2020, 10:39 AM

They should NOW report the %positive cases compared to total tests. This would give a better indication of plateauing or point on the “curve”.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

OR, you could learn how to divide


May 3, 2020, 11:00 AM

Here’s an example:

6.96 million tests, 1.17 million positives
1.17/6.96*100 = 16.8%

So 16.8% of us have the virus - NOT.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

First there are no "real" numbers for covid.


May 3, 2020, 10:59 AM

Not even close. Further they're off the better I guess, but even reading your article I noticed how far THOSE numbers are off. That article was published 10 days ago.

Today we have 1,133,000 cases and 66,441 deaths. Now to put that in perspective, that's 20,000 more deaths than 10 days ago. So in 10 days we have almost 300,000 new cases and almost 20,000 more deaths.

Also, there is no evidence yet that everyone with antibodies is protected from the virus, nor for how long. It is dangerous to assume having antibodies means you're immune. HIGHLY dangerous. In MERS, for example, antibody levels were dependent on disease severity. If you had a mild or asymptomatic case, you had very low levels of antibodies, and they disappeared after only 1-2 months. If you were put into ICU (and survived) you had strong antibody levels, that lasted 18+ months. MERS only got under control because it didn't spread until symptoms showed. Same for SARS, plus SARS caused a strong antibody response in everyone. This has been shown to spread without symptoms being present.

And finally, the r0 of the virus is being totally ignored. The r0 determines the percentages of people who need to be infected (assuming everyone gets strong and lasting antibodies), to establish herd immunity and a natural end to the pandemic. Could be 50%. Could be 80% or more. No one is talking about the r0 anymore. The most extensive study done to date suggests the r0 is between 3.8 and 8.8 with an average estimate of 5.8. If that 5.8 is true, then 82% of people need to be infected, again assuming strong and lasting antibody response, to end the pandemic.

We flattened the curve, with the largest economic shutdown in our history, and with that flattening we managed to keep deaths down to 60,000 and cases down to 1.1 million.

The way to get the most people back top work is through massive testing, WEARING MASKS, social distancing, massive and systematic contact tracing, and no large public gatherings. For countries that did those measures early, they're seeing the benefits. We're likely too far gone to see those measures work. Most countries that locked down have flattened the curve. Few have caused it to decline. Those that did caught it early, tested massively, required masks, and did contact tracing at levels, and using tools, we would consider attacks on our freedom. Then again shutting the economy down is a worse attack IMO, but whatever.

We are going to end up being an example of how NOT to handle a pandemic. We already are really. You can see the republican "L" pretty clearly in states reopening, and the other dem areas staying shut down. Time will tell I guess.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-tiggity-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


I don't agree.***


May 3, 2020, 11:12 AM



2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Your take is neither right nor wrong. It instead comes from


May 3, 2020, 11:28 AM [ in reply to First there are no "real" numbers for covid. ]

a perspective that our individual autonomy and identity is granted by the state, changeable at the state's discretion for whatever reason it decides. I have a 180 degree opposite view. We can argue numbers and death rates all day long and will never agree about lockdown, because you believe the state is acting within your definition of the state and the individual. I will never buy yours.

What you and I likely agree on is that there might be times where govt can take some powers not granted to it. Your perspective says they have that right at all times. My perspective says covid is not even in that arena, let alone rising to the necessary level.

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


agree that our stats are flawed, as well as the analysis


May 3, 2020, 12:26 PM [ in reply to First there are no "real" numbers for covid. ]

It is painfully obvious now that the decision to lockdown and social distance weren't made because we had an accurate understanding of the true depth of the problem. It was made totally based on fear of the potential for hospitals to be overrun. It was a questionable decision that will be argued about for decades, but one thing we can agree on is that we can all look back in hindsight now and realize that good, accurate information and analysis would have enabled a better quality response.

Unfortunately, the quality of the testing data and analysis isn't any better at the moment than it was in early March, mainly because of the asymptomatic nature of this virus. So what should be guiding policy isn't testing data but hospitalization rates, since that is what we are trying to control to begin with.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Those are true statements.


May 3, 2020, 1:53 PM

The lockdown was to 'flatten the curve.' Flattening the curve was the method of preventing the 'collapse of our healthcare system,' another term we've hear and read about ad nauseam.

The curve is flat. Hospitals didn't collapse. Doctor and nurses are out of work. Time is up!

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

“We have nothing to fear but fear itself”


May 3, 2020, 2:51 PM

FDR. No truer words have ever been spoken by a Democratic politician.

We can get back to that mindset but it will take a lot of heavy lifting from everyone,

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: “We have nothing to fear but fear itself”


May 4, 2020, 6:27 AM

Totally agree!

Oh, and the virus. Fear and the virus, that’s all!

2024 purple level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

The left demanded lockdown because they were afraid


May 3, 2020, 4:31 PM [ in reply to agree that our stats are flawed, as well as the analysis ]

of what they didn't know, now they won't accept the data we do know. If you ask one why they still want lockdown, the reasons are nothing like the original justification. Moving goalposts, ignoring of actual experience.

This was never about corona.

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


fear had nothing to do with right or left


May 3, 2020, 7:37 PM

and the decision to overreact was the correct one. Unfortunately, it was the result of not having good enough intel to make a more informed, reasonable decision.

Now that we know roughly how much our hospitals can manage, we can put more people back in the flow of everyday life. And as a society, we will continue to adapt as we go.

Unfortunately, this challenge has a bit of a Darwinian edge to it, as it means greater risk for the health-compromised part of our population. We can't live in fear nor can we just write them off. But we need to learn how to walk and chew gum at the same time.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

We can discuss what fear is in another place and


May 4, 2020, 12:54 AM [ in reply to The left demanded lockdown because they were afraid ]

time, or whatever the original motivation might have been, but what I think you and I agree on is that the reasons for lockdown were xyz, and now that zyx doesn't exist the insistence on lockdown by the left remains.

If everything we know about corona now were known in January, I don't think the case for lockdown could have been made, probably not even seriously considered. But now that we have it the forces to keep it are considerable. Its not about corona.

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


The right runs the place and makes the


May 4, 2020, 4:42 AM [ in reply to The left demanded lockdown because they were afraid ]

decisions. Like the decision to shut the place down.

Right?

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Just curious.....


May 4, 2020, 8:33 AM [ in reply to The left demanded lockdown because they were afraid ]

Which party demanded the lockdown in Brazil? Which one in India? Which one in Iran? Which one in England? Which one in every European country? Which one in Rwanda, Uganda, South Africa, Nigeria? Kenya? Australia? New Zealand? Singapore?

We will burn with this because we're so politicized. We're #1 in deaths and cases for a reason.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpgringofhonor-tiggity-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


It's way lower than .75.


May 3, 2020, 11:05 AM
3800.PNG(52.6 K)

We know that many of the deaths attributed to Covid were not caused by the virus. De Blasio added 3800 to the early death tally without scientific justification. I won't argue the actual death rate because no studies are being done.

https://www.tigernet.com/servlet/JiveServlet/download/234313/3800.PNG

One thing is for sure, the more we test for antibodies the lower the death rate will be. The following indicates an infection rate of 12.5%.

https://cbs6albany.com/news/coronavirus/antibody-study-finds-123-percent-have-covid-19-antibodies


However, as more antibody testing is reported our death to infection rate will continue to drop.

The actual death rate is .1-.12% and dropping with the results of every antibody test. The virus is bad, I'm not saying otherwise. It's nowhere near as bad as is being represented by some.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: It's way lower than .75.


May 4, 2020, 7:12 PM

I smh when I see people cite these antibody tests as law even though no antibody test has been proven to be effective enough to draw conclusions.

And as another poster already said. Ab tests may not mean jack**** if you can get COVID again, possibly worse, in 6 months after having it symptom-free

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Ever notice that the pro lockdowners accept no good


May 3, 2020, 11:34 AM

news about anything? As the fatality rate drops and the infection rate increases, as the targeted at-risk group becomes narrower and better defined, as countries and communities successfully manage the risk without draconian and nazi-ish invasions of human life and freedom, their message simply becomes more shrill.

This stopped being about covid some time ago, did it not? Or was it ever?

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Totally agree***


May 3, 2020, 12:13 PM



2024 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg2005_majors_champ.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-xtiger.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


That's simply not true, but nice lala land world you think


May 3, 2020, 1:14 PM [ in reply to Ever notice that the pro lockdowners accept no good ]

you live in.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg2011_pickem_champ.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-soccerkrzy.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Cole @ Beach Cole w/ Clemson Hat


Did you just make his point?***


May 3, 2020, 1:54 PM



2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Did you just stick your tongue out at me?


May 3, 2020, 2:40 PM [ in reply to That's simply not true, but nice lala land world you think ]

That wasn't very nice.

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Our first goal was to flatten the curve so the...


May 3, 2020, 2:01 PM [ in reply to Ever notice that the pro lockdowners accept no good ]

healthcare system wouldn't collapse. We have far passed the flattening of the curve and hospitals are laying off nurses and doctors...'

A reasonable 'pro lockdown,' person would state a noble goal for continuing the lockdown. I expect dozens of our board pro lockdown people to address this. Perhaps they might want lockdowns during every flu season.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: Real numbers on covid?


May 3, 2020, 12:27 PM

Frightened Americans. Be patient, your next boogeyman will emerge soon enough, and this one’s got wings...

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/28/coronavirus-hype-biggest-political-hoax-in-history/

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

60,000 Covid-related deaths in one month compared to


May 3, 2020, 2:54 PM

a full annual (12 month) flu season average of around 45,000? That's probably close to that 7.5 - 1 ratio on death rate to flu that emerged from the NY test. The weeks long lag time is another beast, though.

It is certainly great that the data coming from random sampling and antibody testing is providing everyone some workable data. It's hard to imagine all of us not being exposed at some point - but the extra cleaning and hygiene, masks and gloves, and extreme social distancing and elimination of groups, it has seemed to accomplish not overwhelming our health care system (a mess), not killing off too many front line of healthcare workers and first responders as this thing took hold, and for the most part keeping outbreak clusters in the general public under wraps. But that's still a big number, for one month's time.

If there's one single thing the Fed can provide it's a national sample testing program. We're only talking about 250,000 national sample tests per week touching every community. We're giddy about NY state testing only 3,000 in a state with 19 Million people or so. Even 100k would outdo the pace of the NY study. If the Fed led it there wouldn't be 100's of separate local entities competing for supplies and guidance for it, or tracking it, and it's the number one ticket to truly sizing up our enemy and giving people real numbers to decide on, not possibilities and opinions on numbers.

Those poor nursing homes, tight quartered industrial plants, cruise ships - this thing has really wreaked havoc on tight, extended time, closed environments. Getting real numbers on timelines, infection rates, symptom discovery, medical / medication history influence, reinfections, environments - this is what gets us back up and running, and ahead of it, better than anything.

Reopening should be underway in stages everywhere that isn't currently showing a rise in symptoms and hospitalizations, and that also has a sample testing mechanism in place along with frontline / gatekeeper worker testing. Outside of that we're still shooting blind, hoping for the best, and waiting three weeks to know the impact of anything we do pretty much.

2024 purple level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Re: 60,000 Covid-related deaths in one month compared to


May 3, 2020, 3:11 PM

Imo, it's reasonable to look back as where we were three weeks ago and speculate on how we should behave in the next few weeks.

Testing is still so undependable it cause me doubts about a vaccine to inoculate for this virus.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Most of the country is reopening this week


May 3, 2020, 2:55 PM

most doing it in stages and the country should be mostly open for everything in a month or so.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Not in the state of Governor Blackface***


May 3, 2020, 4:58 PM



2024 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg2005_majors_champ.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-xtiger.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up


Replies: 28
| visibility 1
Archives - General Boards Archive
add New Topic