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Replies: 23
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Rock Defender [53]
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Joined: 11/30/98
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It's still gonna come down to the Battleground States
Oct 13, 2020, 11:50 PM
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CU Guru [1381]
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Re: It's still gonna come down to the Battleground States
Oct 13, 2020, 11:55 PM
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keep comparing things to '16. lol
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Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
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Re: It's still gonna come down to the Battleground States
Oct 14, 2020, 12:02 AM
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CU Guru [1381]
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Re: It's still gonna come down to the Battleground States
Oct 14, 2020, 12:08 AM
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k ... bro.... :/
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Head Coach [757]
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Rock Defender [53]
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Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: Carville says it will be over by 1030pm.... Landslide***
Oct 14, 2020, 12:20 AM
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All-In [30804]
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It always does***
Oct 14, 2020, 12:59 AM
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All-In [42020]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 11/30/98
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You know...
Oct 14, 2020, 10:55 AM
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I've heard that the football team that has the lead when time runs out wins the game.
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Hall of Famer [20518]
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Re: It's still gonna come down to the Battleground States
Oct 14, 2020, 4:30 AM
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The difference is, the pollsters have all switched their methodologies up, and the swing states are getting massive sampling on high-quality polls now - they didn't in 2016.
The only one who isn't switching things up, actually, is Donald Trump, which is why he's 10 points down.
So...what exactly is he doing differently that will help him turn those abysmal polling numbers down again, and change hearts and minds that have turned to more than 50% "strong" disapproval against him? (Which, incidentally, is an achievement without parallel in modern presidential history; no US president has ever gotten more than half the country to absolutely despise him before. Trump has.)
Because until he moves that number, even a dead Joe Biden would beat a live Donald Trump.
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Orange Blooded [2692]
TigerPulse: 97%
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last night he tried to win suburban women in Pennsylvania
Oct 14, 2020, 10:28 AM
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by claiming that he saved their #### suburbs, which is hilarious. He will never climb that mountain.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: last night he tried to win suburban women in Pennsylvania
Oct 14, 2020, 10:44 AM
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He spoke to those women like they were idiots. He is hurting himself imo.
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All-In [46796]
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Joined: 8/11/15
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The best Biden campaign strategy was to just let DJT talk***
Oct 14, 2020, 10:46 AM
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: It's still gonna come down to the Battleground States
Oct 14, 2020, 9:27 AM
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I've already agreed with bengaline on something this morning and now i am going to agree with T3 ?? Beware the apocalypse !!
T3 is using good data and good comparisons here. First of all, national poll numbers mean next to nothing, considering the winner-take-all Electoral College.
Secondly, T3 is absolutely right - it will come down to the battleground states. Repugs should take heart that the battleground numbers are not far from what they they were in 2016 when Trump overcome the predictions to win.
I do not think that is what is going to happen this time. There are a number of factors working in the opposite direction this year. But T3's evidence is solid and his thinking is rational.
I am going to feel uneasy all the rest of the day.
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All-In [31847]
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If it wasn't going to come down to battleground states....
Oct 14, 2020, 10:50 AM
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they wouldn't be called battleground states...I'm missing the incite offered here 
Also, as someone else already pointed out here (I think), the polls aren't being conducted the same this year as they were last time, so I'm not sure a direct poll-to-poll comparison is very telling.
I think the whole election is very difficult to read given the current covid situation and political situation in general. When you factor in so many people are going to be voting earlier / have already voted, it's going to really skew conventional wisdom.
My gut tells me that Biden is going to win and it's going to be a large enough victory that we're going to be able to call it on the last day of voting (election day). But I won't really be overly surprised by any outcome.
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All-In [31847]
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"missing the insight"***
Oct 14, 2020, 10:54 AM
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Rock Defender [53]
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All-In [31847]
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How can a flaw in a poll be PROVEN prior to the votes....
Oct 14, 2020, 11:05 AM
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being tallied? It can speculated, theorized, etc..., but it can't be proven.
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Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
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Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: How can a flaw in a poll be PROVEN prior to the votes....
Oct 14, 2020, 11:17 AM
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All-In [31847]
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So those articles PROVE something? Or, rather,...
Oct 14, 2020, 11:21 AM
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do the people quoted SUSPECT something?
I'm not saying the polls are right or wrong, I'm pointing out that nothing will be proven until the votes are cast. Then we can see how much the polls missed the mark.
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Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
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Re: So those articles PROVE something? Or, rather,...
Oct 14, 2020, 11:32 AM
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All-In [31847]
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Can you please point out who is in a "frenzy"....
Oct 14, 2020, 11:36 AM
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I've read quite a bit on this and think the polls have been changed from 2016. It's ok that you don't agree with that. I can C&P some articles too, but what does that prove?
Once again, you seem to take a reasonable debate and take it in a different direction. No one is "frenzied"...people are just disagreeing with you.
I sure didn't say anything was "definitely" going to happen. I gave my gut feel and also said I would be surprised by any outcome.
But back to the point...do you agree that the only thing that PROVES a poll is the actual voting?
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All-In [46796]
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The fact that Georgia is close enough to be considered
Oct 14, 2020, 9:31 AM
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a swing state this go around is insane.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: The fact that Georgia is close enough to be considered
Oct 14, 2020, 10:21 AM
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CU Medallion [55657]
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Barring a Hail Mary, Trump will lose. Bigly.***
Oct 14, 2020, 11:02 AM
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