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YOUR BALANCE
The US set a new national record yesterday for
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The US set a new national record yesterday for


Dec 4, 2020, 7:57 AM

number of active hospitalizations due to COVID-19. This sentence has been true in 23 of the last 24 days.

We have gotten better at treating this awful virus, such that the percentage of people hospitalized that die has gone down from the early stages of the pandemic. But that denominator just continues to get bigger and bigger, carrying that numerator grudgingly along with it. We can't let that denominator explode.

The past three days have been #2, #3, and #8 of all the days of the pandemic, in terms of recorded deaths.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics


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Ok, so what should we do?


Dec 4, 2020, 8:06 AM

Start wearing masks in public? Limit crowd sizes? Only go out for essentials?

We should do this for at least 15 days so we can flatten the curve.

Wait that never worked.

I was out a lot yesterday and people are all over the place. Target looked like a zoo, along with places like Best Buy and even Staples was busy. I think the vast majority of the population is tired of the hype and fear mongering.

The elderly and vulnerable need to stay home. The rest of us need to start living life and stop kill small business.

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We should do what our health authorities


Dec 4, 2020, 8:12 AM

ask us to do. Very simple, to me. That is their job, to provide that guidance.

If that causes economic issues, then it's the job of our government officials to address that.

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um, we have been for 8+ months


Dec 4, 2020, 8:17 AM

in oregon & washington, for 10 months.

its obviously not working or this virus would be slowed down to nearly zero. I think the virus is just culling the herd a bit and is unstoppable. We are all going to get it and unfortunately, many will die.

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No, we haven't.


Dec 4, 2020, 8:19 AM

I know most of the people I know haven't been doing it.

For example, just about the only people I know who didn't have gatherings for Thanksgiving are people like me who were quarantined because of COVID. If I weren't quarantined, I would have been right there with them.

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Then start following the rules


Dec 4, 2020, 9:28 AM

your or others disobedience shouldn’t mean a 6 week lockdown for me.

Get your crap together and start wearing a mask.

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Therein lies the problem, we've had an administration


Dec 4, 2020, 9:30 AM

that actively persuaded people to not follow those directions.

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Cole @ Beach Cole w/ Clemson Hat


Where did I say anything about a lockdown?***


Dec 4, 2020, 9:32 AM [ in reply to Then start following the rules ]



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But I agree with your post, obviously.


Dec 4, 2020, 9:33 AM [ in reply to Then start following the rules ]

And it's really the same thing I was already saying.

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you come on here posting numbers


Dec 4, 2020, 9:50 AM

now on the daily, which in my mind, just as with Tiggity is fear mongering.

Just two weeks after you decided it was a good idea to go and sing with a choir. Politicians, almost all of them to add, have been caught dining, partying and defying their own mandates.

It annoys me that people and power and people that think of themselves as intellectuals end up causing all the issues and continue fear mongering.

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I am a wretched hypocrite.


Dec 4, 2020, 9:53 AM

I personally feel like a pretty terrible human being these days.

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oh my gosh......here it comes. I am out


Dec 4, 2020, 9:54 AM



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I believe that would satisfy Diogenes.***


Dec 4, 2020, 10:13 AM [ in reply to I am a wretched hypocrite. ]



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LOL. If you've been to Oregon or Washington recently


Dec 4, 2020, 10:19 AM [ in reply to um, we have been for 8+ months ]

you'll know that not everyone wears masks & people continue to go out as they please. The local agencies aren't enforcing the mandates like they should

This may come as a shock to you, but just b/c there are mandates in place doesnt mean 100% of the people follow them

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Re: Ok, so what should we do?


Dec 4, 2020, 8:14 AM [ in reply to Ok, so what should we do? ]

Sums it up. No way they should shut everything down.

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I want to see the flu numbers


Dec 4, 2020, 8:18 AM

and the numbers for heart attack deaths.

Supposedly the "excess death" numbers were not showing a significant increase. I am too lazy to argue that or look up a link. Someone else can do that for us.

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Re: I want to see the flu numbers


Dec 4, 2020, 8:20 AM

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm


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Flu numbers:


Dec 4, 2020, 8:41 AM [ in reply to I want to see the flu numbers ]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html


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Excess deaths (broken down by state)


Dec 4, 2020, 8:43 AM

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_12022020/NumberOfExcessDeaths?:#####=y&:jsdebug=y&:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

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"Predicted deaths"


Dec 4, 2020, 8:44 AM

Where are the actual?

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We don't know, and really never will.


Dec 4, 2020, 9:04 AM

They'll never know every death every time. That's why using provisional, or predicted, counts is the standard used by health agencies. (And not just now, but always.) The numbers are weighted using years of data as a baseline, for how many deaths are actually reported/counted.

See here if you want the nitty gritty:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#techNotes


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So we are still guessing, awesome


Dec 4, 2020, 9:27 AM

that has worked wonders.

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No, there is no guessing.


Dec 4, 2020, 9:27 AM

This is the opposite of guessing, actually.

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It's always an estimate, even now.


Dec 4, 2020, 9:55 AM [ in reply to "Predicted deaths" ]

Note the low end is/was the number of official covid deaths at the time. The actual recorded deaths is that low number you see (what you want to see?). Since publication, that lower number is technically now 276,402. The upper end is the top estimate of actual covid deaths. The official death count we see are actual deaths. Tested. PCR tested, positive result, treated, someone dies from complications of illness. Someone old lady who lives alone and dies a home, they probably won't even bother testing. My own father passed away in late July, right at the peak of the curve in SC. He was in a nursing home. His oxygen started to drop one day, they put him on 02, the next day he was gone. He was never tested for covid (except a month or two earlier, when they tested everyone). He could have been a covid death. Or not. Who knows. Death certificate says cardiovascular disease and dementia. The nurse said they can't test for covid after death. Mom found that later to be false and went ballistic. Doesn't matter to me, but he could have been a covid death. The nursing home obviously didn't want a test for obvious reasons. Doesn't really matter to me like it does to mom. But anyway, there is a 100% chance the official number of covid deaths is an undercount. Those official deaths are from people tested, and cared for, treated, and the death is carefully vetted. Old lady dies at home alone? Some old guy in a nursing home dies. Some guy working has a stroke or heart attack. Could he have asymptomatic covid and his blood clotted from the covid while otherwise healthy? Could he have blocked arteries and undiagnosed heart disease? Is it 5,000? 20,000? 200,000 low? Who knows. That's the upper estimate by the CDC.

This is why you watch excess deaths, to see what's been missed. You know what's been recorded. You don't know what's been missed, hence an ESTIMATE. Just like you have X number of cases, and estimated cases, you have x number of deaths, and estimated deaths. Are all the excess deaths covid? Nope. Some are though. But it gives an idea of what's been missed. What we will see is also an increased number of heart attacks, strokes, and pneumonia deaths this year. Those that are not tied to covid, a percentage of them are in fact from covid and not properly attributed. Cardiovascular disease is the #1 condition that leads to covid deaths. Stroke is another big one, falling under the same category. Die of one of those common causes at home living alone, and you are not tested, there's a chance it was covid-related in some people.

Anyway......that's why they say predicted. The prediction starts at the actual recorded deaths, then the unknowns are the range of the prediction.

With all the testing we're doing for covid though, the range is limited compared to flu estimates. Flu deaths have a very wide range. I see they've limited it more with covid. As a side note, statistically, you can split the difference in the estimate and get the most likely actual number of covid deaths. That's what the do with the flu. Create estimate ranges, split them, and there's your "official" number of flu deaths. Best guess really.

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Re: Ok, so what should we do?


Dec 4, 2020, 8:22 AM [ in reply to Ok, so what should we do? ]

Manac,

Yeah, kill your neighbors instead.

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Tactics mentioned just more universally & rigorously


Dec 4, 2020, 8:45 AM [ in reply to Ok, so what should we do? ]

Will slow transmission rates and deaths but not eliminate the virus.

Speaking of culling, maybe the economic Impacts will thin out poorly managed small businesses. New and potentially better ones will sprout up in the vacant spaces. Being old & sentimental, I am not fully aligned with that outcome. I like the old bars & restaurants.

Another Trumpian ‘ Pub argument: I like big business since I can buy stock in them and profit. If small businesses were really any good then they would be big, There’s not a lot that Amazon or other online retailers can’t provide and deliver to my doorstep. Again being old school, I still like to see and touch many consumer items.

A contrarian could make the case that big business is better and in many cases more economically efficient.

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We did not flatten the curve.


Dec 4, 2020, 9:24 AM [ in reply to Ok, so what should we do? ]

And you don't think elderly and at-risk aren't trying to isolate? Throwing our hands up in the air would have caused a million deaths.

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The Virginia Department of Health website


Dec 4, 2020, 8:39 AM

Is not showing a “death spike”

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what does that compare to?


Dec 4, 2020, 9:03 AM

I can only understand the volume if you compare it to something else

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Cat on a tin roof, dogs in a pile,
Nothin' left to do but smile, smile, smile!!!!


The daily total is more than quadruple the number


Dec 4, 2020, 9:03 AM

of recalled Takata airbags in 2016 Ford Fiestas.

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Some nursing homes have more COVID deaths than


Dec 4, 2020, 9:55 AM

Todd Kohlepp the serial killer had victims. PUT THAT INTO PERSPECTIVE

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Re: The US set a new national record yesterday for


Dec 4, 2020, 10:28 AM

I was pretty sure it was going to be a record for
the most liberals posting unintelligible comments on TNet.

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