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For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is
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For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 1:50 PM

there enough data available to predict the % chance that someone will get the virus? Haven't seen anything anywhere. Thanks

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 1:57 PM

I bet it’s much lower than the chances of being killed in a crash on the way to the doctors office to get tested.

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 2:04 PM

In SC, my prediction is 5,000 people will get the virus and 75 will die before we start to see a decline over the next few weeks. There are 5 million people in SC. That means 0.1% (or 1/1,000 people) will get the virus and 0.0015% will die (or 1/70,000 people). Just a guess.

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 3:10 PM

If you need essentials, you may want to pick them up in the next few days. From what I am seeing, the next few weeks will be the apex of this virus. I will be doing a pick up at Wal-Mart tomorrow. Order on line and pick your day and time and they will put it in the car for you. Then sanitize everything when you get home or in the parking lot. Go anywhere that provides pick up. Just a suggestion. Ya'll stay safe.

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 5:23 PM

“ Then sanitize everything when you get home or in the parking lot.”

All that is not necessary.

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Yes it is. The virus has been shown to survive on packages


Mar 29, 2020, 9:48 PM

for several hours. You don’t want to bring that into your house.

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Re: Yes it is. The virus has been shown to survive on packages


Mar 29, 2020, 10:58 PM

Don’t discourage this one JK.

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 3:18 PM [ in reply to Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is ]

I could be wrong, but I thought there was only 3.2 million in SC???

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 5:31 PM [ in reply to Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is ]

That was pretty accurate until Folly beach opened back up. Go Jets.

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 3:09 PM

I read this article for the Telegraph which is a UK paper
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/least-16m-people-could-infected-coronavirus-uk-new-estimates/

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No, since many people have a mild case and never get


Mar 29, 2020, 8:52 PM

tested.

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Re: For the statisticians and mathematicians here on TNET, is


Mar 29, 2020, 9:23 PM

There is enough data that some have predicted 50%-70% in our country will be infected at some point in time.

The vast majority will exhibit few or no symptoms, similar to a cold.

15% will have severe symptoms similar to influenza.

~5% will require intense treatment which may include hospitalization.

Somewhere between 0.3% to 1% will die, which is a very wide range. The key to keeping this figure low is having open hospital beds and available respirators. If the number requiring intense treatment at one time in a given area is greater than can be treated, many will needlessly die. This is why "flatten the curve" is something everyone with their head screwed on agrees is crucial.

The president said some very coherent things today.

1. The date rate should peak mid-April. This is legitimately possible.

2. He's extending the social distancing guidelines to the end of April.

3. He said by June things should be turning around. This is legitimately possible and a ray of hope for everyone.

Dr. Fauci strongly believes people who recover from COVID-19 will be immune to it.

There is light at the end of the tunnel as long as everyone can hold it together for a few more weeks.

Long term, there will be a "new normal" in many ways. I hate using that term already but it's true.

Probably have a widely available vaccine sometime next year. Flip a coin on when. There are no magic potions that work now.

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