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All-In [40872]
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Fauci changed his mind on herd immunity
Dec 26, 2020, 12:59 PM
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Not because of science, because there can't be any new science on herd immunity concerning covid.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/much-herd-immunity-enough-131558469.htmlhttps://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/6lzvP4lA_jbtQNjcmqHV5Q--~B/aD0zMDAwO3c9NDUwMDthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_new_york_times_articles_158/5d23c4900292dc398d628f9b27e632fa"> How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough? At what point does a country achieve herd immunity? What portion of the population must acquire resistance to the coronavirus, either through infection or vaccination, in order for the disease to fade away and life to return to normal?Since the start of the pandemic, the figure that many epidemiologists have offered has been 60% to 70%. That range is still cited by the World Health Organization and is often repeated during discussions of the future course of the disease.Although it is impossible to know with certainty what the limit will be until we reach it and transmission stops, having a good estimate is important: It gives Americans a sense of when we can hope to breathe freely again.Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York TimesRecently, a figure to whom millions of Americans look for guidance -- Dr. Anthony Fauci, an adviser to both the Trump administration and the incoming Biden administration -- has begun incrementally raising his herd-immunity estimate.In the pandemic's early days, Fauci tended to cite the same 60% to 70% estimate that most experts did. About a month ago, he began saying "70, 75%" in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said "75, 80, 85%" and "75 to 80-plus percent."In a telephone interview the next day, Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90% immunity to bring the virus to a halt -- almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.Asked about Fauci's conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60% to 70% was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.Fauci said that weeks ago, he had hesitated to publicly raise his estimate because many Americans seemed hesitant about vaccines, which they would need to accept almost universally in order for the country to achieve herd immunity.Now that some polls are showing that many more Americans are ready, even eager, for vaccines, he said he felt he could deliver the tough message that the return to normal might take longer than anticipated."When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75%," Fauci said. "Then, when newer surveys said 60% or more would take it, I thought, 'I can nudge this up a bit,' so I went to 80, 85.""We need to have some humility here," he added. "We really don't know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90%. But, I'm not going to say 90%."Doing so might be discouraging to Americans, he said, because he is not sure there will be enough voluntary acceptance of vaccines to reach that goal. Although sentiments about vaccines in polls have bounced up and down this year, several current ones suggest that about 20% of Americans say they are unwilling to accept any vaccine.Also, Fauci noted, a herd-immunity figure at 90% or above is in the range of the infectiousness of measles."I'd bet my house that COVID isn't as contagious as measles," he said.Measles is thought to be the world's most contagious disease; it can linger in the air for hours or drift through vents to infect people in other rooms. In some studies of outbreaks in crowded military barracks and student dormitories, it has kept transmitting until more than 95% of all residents are infected.Interviews with epidemiologists regarding the degree of herd immunity needed to defeat the coronavirus produced a range of estimates, some of which were in line with Fauci's. They also came with a warning: All answers are merely "guesstimates.""You tell me what numbers to put in my equations, and I'll give you the answer," said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "But you can't tell me the numbers, because nobody knows them."The only truly accurate measures of herd immunity are done in actual herds and come from studying animal viruses like rinderpest and foot-and-mouth disease, said Dr. David M. Morens, Fauci's senior adviser on epidemiology at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.When cattle are penned in corrals, it is easy to measure how fast a disease spreads from one animal to another, he said. Humans move around, so studying disease spread among them is far harder.The original assumption that it would take 60% to 70% immunity to stop the disease was based on early data from China and Italy, health experts noted.Epidemiologists watching how fast cases doubled in those outbreaks calculated that the virus' reproduction number, or R0 -- how many new victims each carrier infected -- was about 3. So two out of three potential victims would have to become immune before each carrier infected fewer than one. When each carrier infects fewer than one new victim, the outbreak slowly dies out.Two out of three is 66.7%, which established the range of 60% to 70% for herd immunity.Reinforcing that notion was a study conducted by the French military on the crew of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which had an outbreak in late March, said Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.The study found that 1,064 of the 1,568 sailors aboard, or about 68%, had tested positive for the virus.But the carrier returned to port while the outbreak was still in progress, and the crew went into quarantine, so it was unclear whether the virus was finished infecting new sailors even after 68% had caught it.Also, outbreaks aboard ships are poor models for those on land because infections move much faster in the close quarters of a vessel than in a free-roaming civilian population, said Dr. Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.More important, the early estimates from Wuhan and Italy were later revised upward, Lipsitch noted, once Chinese scientists realized they had undercounted the number of victims of the first wave. It took about two months to be certain that there were many asymptomatic people who had also spread the virus.It also became clearer later that "superspreader events," in which one person infects dozens or even hundreds of others, played a large role in spreading COVID-19. Such events, in "normal" populations -- in which no one wears masks and everyone attends events like parties, basketball tournaments or Broadway shows -- can push the reproduction number upward to 4, 5 or even 6, experts said. Consequently, those scenarios call for higher herd immunity; for example, at an R0 of 5, more than 4 out of 5 people, or 80%, must be immune to slow down the virus.Further complicating matters, there is a growing consensus among scientists that the virus itself is becoming more transmissible. A variant "Italian strain" with the mutation known as D614G has spread much faster than the original Wuhan variant. A newly identified mutation, sometimes called N501Y, that may make the virus even more infectious has recently appeared in Britain, South Africa and elsewhere.The more transmissible a pathogen, the more people must become immune in order to stop it.Morens and Lipsitch agreed with Fauci that the level of herd immunity needed to stop COVID-19 could be 85% or higher."But that's a guesstimate," Lipsitch emphasized."Tony's reading the tea leaves," Morens said.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offers no herd immunity estimate, saying on its website that "experts do not know."Although WHO scientists still sometimes cite the older 60% to 70% estimate, Dr. Katherine O'Brien, the agency's director of immunization, said that she now thought that range was too low. She declined to estimate what the correct higher one might be."We'd be leaning against very thin reeds if we tried to say what level of vaccine coverage would be needed to achieve it," she said. "We should say we just don't know. And it won't be a world or even national number. It will depend on what community you live in."Dean noted that to stop transmission in a crowded city like New York, more people would have to achieve immunity than would be necessary in a less crowded place like Montana.Even if Fauci is right and it will take 85% or even 90% herd immunity to completely stop coronavirus transmission, Lipsitch said, "we can still defang the virus sooner than that."He added: "We don't have to have zero transmission in order to have a decent society. We have lots of diseases, like flu, transmitting all the time, and we don't shut down society for that. If we can vaccinate almost all the people who are most at risk of severe outcomes, then this would become a milder disease."This article originally appeared in The New York Times.(C) 2020 The New York Times Company
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All-In [34533]
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when has that midget NOT changed his mind? how does he still
Dec 26, 2020, 1:03 PM
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have a job?
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All-In [34486]
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Because he's not as dumb as most people think?
Dec 26, 2020, 1:46 PM
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You know that changing your opinion as you learn more is a virtue in the scientific community, right? Almost as if FACTS dictate politics and not vice versa. Effin crazy, right bro?
Intentionally STOPPING your education and the uptake of new information when you're 15 years old isn't some kind of great characteristic, despite how much you may wish to demonstrate otherwise.
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Hall of Famer [24452]
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I agree with all you say about changing opinions. However,
Dec 26, 2020, 1:52 PM
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the issue some have with his credibility is that he has changed his message, sometimes 180 degrees, on things for which he has not changed his opinion, which is bad enough, but which means he is stating some things as facts which he knows are not.
This - what we believe and what positions we take - has been more about ideology than truth.
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Orange Blooded [4745]
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Well, 12 months ago hardly anyone had heard of the Covid 19
Dec 26, 2020, 8:45 PM
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virus. I think where we are today with vaccines being delivered, compared to where we were in January 2020, the US has made unbelievable progress. New vaccines normally take 4-6 years of testing to achieve a safe condition. The Covid 19 vaccines are now ready for the first round in less than a year. An amazing pace.
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Hall of Famer [24452]
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And we're out of peanut butter.***
Dec 26, 2020, 10:30 PM
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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All-In [34486]
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Fauci or Crash?***
Dec 26, 2020, 7:12 PM
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Heisman Winner [111393]
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Don't worry,
Dec 26, 2020, 8:24 PM
[ in reply to He's not dumb, he's evil pure and plain.*** ] |
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Trump has been keeping him on his staff this entire time as part of a deep state set up. I cant say much more, but most of you will be Shocked and Amazed pretty soon and you will ALL be huge trump supporters when everything is said and done. We are talking life altering world changing stuff. I wish I could say more.
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Hall of Famer [24452]
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The last sentence in the article, the quote by Lipsitch, is
Dec 26, 2020, 1:48 PM
[ in reply to when has that midget NOT changed his mind? how does he still ] |
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90% of what we need to know, and should have been the focus of our policies all long. But it's not what we did at the beginning, and its not what the media message was, and its not what it is now.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: The last sentence in the article, the quote by Lipsitch, is
Dec 26, 2020, 2:32 PM
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Tulsa,
Dr. Fauci finds himself in a unique position. He is a medical scientist and a public servant. As such he has to try to bridge the gap between the best medical research available and finding the public policy positions that will work best for Americans.
In a novel and changing landscape, I think he has done an admirable job of trying to meld his two responsibilities together. And he has done so selflessly.
Others here have already pointed out that changing one's mind in the face of changing evidence is a feature, not a bug, in scientific and medical research. I would only add that meaningful truths are far more dynamic than static.
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Hall of Famer [24452]
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Right. I responded to Fauci's practice of changing his
Dec 26, 2020, 3:12 PM
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positions without new information. Being in front of a camera is no excuse to do that. Having a variety of responsibilities is no excuse.
If he goes from A to B, I now have no way to know which one he actually thinks is true, if either. Except for seeing him on TV, I wouldn't know him if he knocked on my front door, so I have no opinion about him personally. But the person in front of the camera has been very inconsistent within the realm of data that he does know.
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Oculus Spirit [97665]
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I give up. Really.
Dec 26, 2020, 1:55 PM
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No use.
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Hall of Famer [24452]
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Never give up. :)***
Dec 26, 2020, 2:10 PM
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All-In [34100]
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From the article
Dec 26, 2020, 2:16 PM
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Asked about Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60% to 70% was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.
It seems like the science of epidemiology is like the science of climate change. It's about making predictions, which involves a lot of uncertainties, and at the same time it is connected to policy determination in light of those uncertainties.
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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What bothers me about that is Fauci, and the rest of the...
Dec 26, 2020, 6:20 PM
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bunch told us back in March that this virus would mutate. I reviewed several articles and publications in medical journals which substantiated that claim but also covered another vital factor of viral mutations.
As it becomes more contagious it becomes less deadly. I presume there is a relationship between contagion and fatality factor in the mutation, not that anyone said that specifically.
So if we're hearing one of the characteristics of viral mutation why aren't they being honest about it being less deadly? That's my problem with politicizing epidemics. I think people reveal what suits their politics and omitting that which doesn't.
Imo, a half truth is just a nice way to say lie.
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All-In [40872]
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he admitted to lying about herd immunity
Dec 26, 2020, 8:46 PM
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to trick people into taking a vaccine and the lefties have no problem with this. How about give us the facts and let us make our own decisions.
I wear masks and will get the vaccine as soon as possible.
What if another pandemic like the 1919 Flu pandemic hits us. The over reaction for this was insane, for something far more deadly there is not telling what they would do.
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110%er [8885]
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Re: Fauci changed his mind on herd immunity
Dec 26, 2020, 3:41 PM
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fowlchi lied and people died
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Rock Defender [53]
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Hmmm
Dec 26, 2020, 4:45 PM
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All-In [40872]
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masks are worthless
Dec 26, 2020, 4:48 PM
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until they are almost fool proof
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Oculus Spirit [93608]
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That's called manipulation.
Dec 26, 2020, 6:23 PM
[ in reply to Hmmm ] |
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It's wrong and any doctor worth his salt wouldn't do that. I would have fired Fauci and Redfield back in March or April.
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Orange Blooded [4745]
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I've had to visit 5 different doctors for different medical
Dec 26, 2020, 8:55 PM
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conditions in the last two weeks and even though I have been a patient for over five years at each office, everyone, including myself MUST wear a mask to see the doctors.
I don't understand why so many of you are angry over wearing a mask.
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All-Conference [434]
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Funny how you conspiracy theorists cruicify Fauci for
Dec 26, 2020, 8:45 PM
[ in reply to Hmmm ] |
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something like this, yet you are perfectly okay with Trump telling people to inject themselves with disinfectant to kill the virus
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All-In [40872]
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not a Trump fan but how many people were injured
Dec 26, 2020, 8:48 PM
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injecting themselves with disinfectant to kill the virus?
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Heisman Winner [111393]
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Still, there was this guy that thought he could
Dec 26, 2020, 9:03 PM
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wipe it out with UV light internally. Have you ever had sunburn on your sphincter?
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Rock Defender [53]
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Replies: 25
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