Tiger Board Logo

Donor's Den General Leaderboards TNET coins™ POTD Hall of Fame Map FAQ
GIVE AN AWARD
Use your TNET coins™ to grant this post a special award!

W
50
Big Brain
90
Love it!
100
Cheers
100
Helpful
100
Made Me Smile
100
Great Idea!
150
Mind Blown
150
Caring
200
Flammable
200
Hear ye, hear ye
200
Bravo
250
Nom Nom Nom
250
Take My Coins
500
Ooo, Shiny!
700
Treasured Post!
1000

YOUR BALANCE
FSU Scouting
storage This topic has been archived - replies are not allowed.
Archives - Tiger Boards Archive
add New Topic
Replies: 12
| visibility 1

FSU Scouting


Oct 24, 2016, 9:43 PM

It's that time again. I've done these since the Louisville game, so it is time to keep it going. Without further ado:

Keys to the Game

1) Turnovers

This is the obvious one but not in the way most are thinking. We have turned the ball over 16 times this year (8 picks, 8 lost fumbles but 15 total fumbles) and have forced 16 turnovers (11 picks, 5 fumbles recovered). That is a NET of 0 in Turnover margin. If we do NOT turn the ball and force TWO turnovers we will win by 28+ points. If we lose the turnover margin, it will be close (7 points or less). If we are -4 in the TO margin we will lose. One note to add is if you haven’t seen any game film of when FSU played Wake Forest, you will want too. Wake’s offense is very limited, but their defense forced 4 turnovers by getting pressure and playing zone, forcing Francois to throw into tight windows. Some of that can be chalked up to their game before a bye week (being physically worn down from the season) but not all of that was because of the wear and tear.

2) Stop the Run

Another obvious one but this is no more apparent than in our matchup this weekend. Stop their #4 Dalvin Cook. I don’t have to tell y’all how dangerous he is, we all know that already. He’s got 900 yards on 159 attempts (7 TDs, 5.7/carry). The other two leading rushers behind him? Jacques Patrick and Deondre Francois (yes, their QB is 3rd on the team in rushing at 144 yards on the season). Defensive line, I’m looking at y’all. FSU’s O-line has been suspect in protection this season. They have the size and talent but they have not consistently pass or run blocked. I have no doubt that Ferrell/Bryant/Wilkins/Pagano/Watkins/Lawrence are going to shut them down. Referencing the Wake Forest game, Cook had 25 carries for 112 yards, but 69 of those yards came on 6 carries. Wake did a good job of limiting him and stripping him of the ball (2 fumbles).

3) CJ Fuller, Taylor Hearn, Jake Fruhmorgen

Run the ball. Run the ball. Run the ball. You know what FSU is going to try to do first? Stop the running game, namely Deshaun’s ability to run the ball (that has been every team’s #1 objective this entire season). Wayne will likely play and will be the stud we all know, but he and Deshaun cannot handle this rushing load alone this game. Enter the running back who has been the most consistent of our backups when teams stack the box (ex. Wake and SC last season, NC State last week). He’s averaging 4 yards a carry in these situations and runs hard and more importantly has settled down the offense and been consistent. Choice is starting to show as injury prone (to some degree) and Dye is not the same back he was before the injuries he has had. Tavien is getting better, but it’s clear at this point that the coaches are not going to throw him in the fire in a dog fight. CJ Fuller, it’s your moment and your opportunity this weekend to spell Gallman. Take advantage of it and light FSU the F up!!! Taylor Hearn and Jake Fruhmorgen, no more inconsistent play (ex. Hearn against Troy blocking air, Fruhmorgen against BC). Y’all have the talent and proved it in the Louisville game, now show up and dominate.

4) Field Goal Kicking

I told y’all last week that if it came down to a FG I like our chances because NC State’s field goal kicking is terribly inconsistent. The game proved me right. Ricky Aguayo is 14-19 on the season for FSU, but he’s 5/9 from 40-49 yards and 0/1 over 50 with a season long of 47 (and 1 FG attempt blocked). If it comes down to a kick, we are in good shape once again, but this time from over 40 yards. Under 40 yards is where they have an advantage.

5) Penalties

Wait, what? Yes, I just said penalties are a key to this game. There is an old saying in football: 100 yards in penalties is equal to about 7 points off the scoreboard. FSU is averaging 8 penalties for 80 yards per game. This will be crucial to us winning this game.

6) Win the 3rd Quarter

You mean win the 4th quarter right? 3rd quarter is a typo? Win the 4th quarter obviously but this is not a typo. FSU is outscoring opponents 72-31 in the 3rd quarter alone. You want to suck the life out of this FSU team? Win the 3rd quarter.

7) Pressure on the QB

One common trend is that Francois, when pressured and zone behind that pressure, has trouble making plays. He is one tough kid, but he has taken some serious shots in their last two games against Miami and Wake Forest. He will not be 100% for the game (regardless of what they try to say), so (legally within the limits of the game) hit him again, again, and again. He had issues getting his arm above his head consistently, so high snaps could be an issue at times (like they were against Wake). Pressure forced him into some bad throws.


PREDICTION

Clemson 31, FSU 17

If we can ever not turn the ball over, this could be a 52-17 or more type game, but I’m expecting to see the TO margin be split or us be -1. The team has to prove it before I’ll make another prediction expecting 0 turnovers. FSU is banged up (their QB and RB on offense, and y’all know the injuries on defense already) more than we are. It could get ugly, it could be close. Turnovers are going to dictate that.
(FSU is giving up 30 points/game in conference, we are giving up 17.5 points/game in conference)
(take the Louisville game out for both teams and FSU is giving up 20.6 points/game in conference, we are giving up 11.3 points/game)


Data Breakdown

• 5-2 Record (2-2 in conference)
o Losses @ Louisville 63-20, VS UNC 37-35
• Offense
o 34.9 points/game
? 51 points scored off turnovers for the reason compared to 27 for their opponents
? ONLY 23 POINTS A GAME IN CONFERENCE PLAY WITH A HIGH OF 35 AGAINST UNC (A TEAM THAT CAN’T STOP THE RUN)
o 484.7 yards/game
o 188 1st downs total
? 92 rushing
? 80 passing
? 16 from penalties
o Rushing
? 213.1 yards/game
? 4.9 yards/carry
? 17 TDs
o Passing
? 271.6 yards/game
? 8.2 yards/pass attempt
? 11 TDs
o 539 total plays (100 more than opponents on the season, approx. 14 more plays than opponent per game)
o 42/93 on 3rd Downs (45% conversions)
o Given up 21 sacks
o Red Zone
? 33/33 (94%)
? 22 TDs, 9 FGs
• Defense
o 28.9 points/game
? (excluding the Louisville game it drops to 23.1/game)
o 388.6 yards/game
o 138 1st downs total
? 57 rushing
? 63 passing
? 18 from penalties
o Rushing
? 155.1 yards/game
? 4.5 yards/carry
? 14 TDs
o Passing
? 233.4 yards/game
? 8.3 yards/pass attempt
? 12 TDs
o 440 Total plays (100 less than FSU’s offense, 14 plays less than FSU offense per game)
o 34/86 on 3rd Downs (40% conversions)
o 24 sacks
? 8.5 by #44 Walker
o 9 Interceptions
? 5 by #4 McFadden
o Red Zone
? 23/29 (79%)
? 20 TDs, 3 FGs
• Special Teams
o Punts
? 27 punts total
• 42.3 yards/punt
• 33.4 net punt average/punt
o Punt Returns
? Jesus Wilson (only one to return punts on the season)
• 9 returns, 155 yards
• 17.2 yards/return
• 1 TD (89 yard return)
? Field Goals
• 14/19 (73.7%)
o 4/4 from 20-29 yards
o 5/5 from 30-39 yards
o 5/9 from 40-49 yards
o 0/1 from 50+ yards
o Long of 47 yards
? Extra Points
• 28/28
? Kickoffs
• 51 kickoffs
• 64.1 yards/kick
• 41.9 net yard/kick
• 0 Onside kick attempts on the season
• Scoring
o 1st Quarter
? FSU 65 – 45
o 2nd Quarter
? FSU 51 – 75
o 3rd Quarter
? FSU 72 -31
o 4th Quarter
? FSU 56-51

References

http://www.seminoles.com/fls/32900/FB/Stats/teamcume.htm
http://www.clemsontigers.com/fls/28500/pdf/football/2016-17/Stats.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=28500&DB_OEM_ID=28500

FSU Vs Wake Forest Game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbF3pjwzVdY

military_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: FSU Scouting


Oct 24, 2016, 9:55 PM

Thanks for all the hard work. Do you see us playing much zone on D?

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: FSU Scouting


Oct 24, 2016, 10:20 PM

I wouldn't be surprised to see us play zone behind some blitzes (Wake dropped LBs and even a DE in coverage when they blitzed one of the corners). Trying to confuse the QB while stopping the running game I think is going to be Coach V's game plan.

military_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: FSU Scouting


Oct 25, 2016, 3:54 PM

One of my favorite Clemson interceptions is when Crawford dropped into zone coverage against UGA. He didn't score on the play but it was just a great play call.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: FSU Scouting


Oct 24, 2016, 10:31 PM

Good analysis thanks!

badge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Nice analysis!!!!!***


Oct 24, 2016, 10:35 PM



2024 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Yours is always the most insightful analysis.


Oct 24, 2016, 10:36 PM

It makes me easy to do my own work.

And I thank you for that.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

bump, some of y'all need to focus on this game!***


Oct 25, 2016, 3:17 PM



military_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: FSU Scouting


Oct 25, 2016, 4:27 PM

"6) Win the 3rd Quarter

You mean win the 4th quarter right? 3rd quarter is a typo? Win the 4th quarter obviously but this is not a typo. FSU is outscoring opponents 72-31 in the 3rd quarter alone. You want to suck the life out of this FSU team? Win the 3rd quarter."


THIS IS THE TRUTH!!!! Other than BC, this Clemson team has yet to come out and put our opponents away in the 3rd quarter. If we had scored on our first possession of the 3rd quarter against Louisville (turnover) and the first two possessions of the 3rd quarter against NC State (both turnovers) those games would not have been close. Gotta come out of halftime focused and shut the door on our opponents in the 3rd quarter.

One other thing we have to do from the first play to the last is be extremely physical at the point of attack. In 2014 we were the more physical team and FSU spent the whole game in react mode. When FSU has been in react mode (see the FSU vs Louisville game) they play slower and opens the door for us to make some big plays.

2024 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgmilitary_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Why is it every time we expect a blowout we are rewarded with a close win***


Oct 25, 2016, 4:51 PM



2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Fix #1 and #7 - TOs and 3rd Qtr have been achilles heals***


Oct 25, 2016, 4:54 PM



2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Wednesday bump***


Oct 26, 2016, 1:44 PM



military_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Thursday bump***


Oct 27, 2016, 12:55 PM



military_donation.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Replies: 12
| visibility 1
Archives - Tiger Boards Archive
add New Topic