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College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers
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College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers


Nov 29, 2016, 8:47 PM

Here are the final regular season stats for who has beaten winners vs losers.

Alabama is 12-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 85-58
Ohio State is 11-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 74-57
Clemson is 11-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 76-54
Washington is 11-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 58-72
Michigan is 10-2; whose defeated teams combined record is 62-59
Wisconsin is 10-2; whose defeated teams combined record is 55-63
Penn State is 10-2; whose defeated teams combined record is 59-61

A further breakdown shows that:
Alabama has beaten 9 teams with winning records and 3 teams with losing records
Ohio State has beaten 5 teams with winning records, 3 teams with even records, and 3 teams with losing records
Clemson has beaten 5 teams with winning records, 4 teams with even records, and 2 teams with losing records
Washington has beaten 4 teams with winning records, and 7 teams with losing records
Michigan has beaten 3 teams with winning records, 3 teams with even records, and 4 teams with losing records
Wisconsin has beaten 4 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 5 teams with losing records
Penn State has beaten 4 teams with winning records, 2 teams with even records, and 4 teams with losing records

Notes:
Alabama has beaten 4 teams that remain ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#11 USC, #22 Tennessee, #21 LSU, #14 Auburn)
Ohio State has beaten 3 teams that remain ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#9 Oklahoma, #6 Wisconsin, #5 Michigan)
Clemson has beaten 3 teams that remain ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#14 Auburn, #13 Louisville, #12 Florida State)
Washington has beaten 2 teams that remain ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#18 Stanford, #20 Utah)
Michigan has beaten 3 teams that remain ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#8 Colorado, #7 Penn State, #6 Wisconsin)
Wisconsin has beaten 1 team that remains ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#21 LSU)
Penn State has beaten 1 team that remains ranked in the CFP week 14 rankings (#2 Ohio State)

Based on the comments by Kirby Holcutt tonight it seems to me that the CFP Committee is very lukewarm towards the Big10 Champ game and have devalued that game more than I originally thought. Apparently they value Ohio States strength of schedule over both Penn State's and Wisconsin's SOS and I predict the Big10 champ is going to be left out of the playoff. To me they sent this signal by having both Ohio State and Michigan ranked ahead of Penn State and Wisconsin. Looking at the level of competition that both Wisconsin and Penn State have beaten - the committee may not believe they have beaten enough tough teams to warrant being one of the best 4 teams when compared to Ohio State regardless if they are the Big10 champ.

I'm guessing that the CFP committee sees very little separation between Clemson and Ohio State - the resume's are very close. My guess is that if Clemson wins the ACC Championship it will be enough to have Clemson jump Ohio State to assume the number 2 spot next week - especially if we convincingly beat VT Tech. That would give Clemson a slight edge with 12 wins, with 4 over ranked teams (add VA Tech) as compared to Ohio States 11 wins with 3 over ranked teams.

Holcutt's comment that the difference betweeen Washington and Michigan is razor thin makes be believe that should Washington beat Colorado - Washington will remain number 4. While Washington's strength of schedule may make the CFP committee flinch a little, a win over #8 ranked Colorado on a neutral field should be enough to keep their position.

So, if Alabama wins the SEC, Clemson wins the ACC, and Washington wins the PAC-12; here is what I predict for the final rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington

Either way, I believe we will play Ohio State in the playoff and I think we will take them to the cleaners. Ohio State has looked very sluggish the last two weeks and Clemson is hitting our stride. Take care of business this weekend and we will clean the Buckeye's clocks.

PS... The Big12 is completely out of the picture - Oklahoma's strength of wins is hideous (defeated teams combined record is 47-56, beating 4 teams with winning records, 5 teams with losing records with only 1 win over a ranked team (West Virginia)).

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Re: College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers


Nov 29, 2016, 9:12 PM

I question this.

Why has Bama's opponents played a dozen more game that all the others?

Should Bama be at 75 wins rather than 85?

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Re: College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers


Nov 29, 2016, 9:17 PM

Those are The combined records of defeated teams. not total teams

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Re: College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers


Nov 29, 2016, 9:24 PM

I guess I am more dense than I thought
Bama has played 12 teams who have played a total of 143 games
Clemson has played 12 teams who have played only 130 games
..?..

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it's the combined record of teams they have beaten.


Nov 30, 2016, 12:00 AM

Baka won all theirs. Clemson did not.

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Re: it's the combined record of teams they have beaten.


Nov 30, 2016, 12:35 AM

Defeated teams. Bama had won 12, cu 11, that's why.

Reeding skillz.

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Re: College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers


Nov 29, 2016, 9:58 PM

Alabama's opponents' combined record of 85-58 is correct, however, Clemson's and probably the others is not. Clemson's opponents' combined record is 84-58.

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Re: College Football Playoff - beating winners vs beating losers


Nov 30, 2016, 5:20 PM

Ok... Here is the chart with all the data. I believe my math is correct (or rather Excel's math) but feel free to check it. Remember - only defeated teams and their records count - would not make sense to give a team credit for losing to a team.



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