Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Dec 25, 2017, 3:59 AM

I was looking into some miscellaneous recruiting information earlier today, and I wanted to post a few of my random thoughts as I was looking at some things as well as offer you guys any information I have come across in case any of you are interested. I wrote this post several hours ago but somehow never clicked the button to post it, so I really hope that there will be people on here on Christmas to read this after I wasted so much time writing all of it. Of course, it doesn't matter all that much because writing is a hobby I very much enjoy.

First, I should ask if anyone know has any inside information on the total number of recruits that we are planning on signing this year? I came up with my own estimate, but I wanted to see if anyone else had heard anything different. Several months ago the prevailing sentiment seemed to be that our 2018 class was only going to have a total of 14 or 15 recruits. I've seen more recent estimates that predict us to be signing a total of 18 guys.

I have seen some places that only have us listed as using like 78 of our scholarships, but this is most likely due to the fact that they aren't taking the scholarships that have been earned by walk-ons into account. Even taking that into consideration still doesn't add up to 85 scholarships though. We currently only have 6 seniors that will exhaust their eligibility after this year. That would give us only 13 spots in the highly unlikely event that the number 78 is accurate before taking into consideration any of our juniors that declare for the NFL draft this year as well as any potential transfers that may occur. I don't want to speculate too much about which specific juniors will declare early, but it's probably reasonable to assume we will have anywhere from 3 to 6 scholarships open up. But even if we were to lose 6 juniors along with 6 seniors, I'm still not sure how we are going to have room for even the 15 guys we already have much less the 18 or so that I have seen predicted on multiple websites.

In other words, by my count, which admittedly might not be completely accurate, it looks like we could have as few as 12 spots available without taking into account any potential transfers. I have to assume that there is either something that I am missing or the coaches are preparing based on information about next year's potential roster that we aren't yet aware of. We will of course have a better idea after we finish the season and know exactly which players will be declaring early. Hopefully the coaching staff will be aware of any players that are planning on transferring at this time as well. I can remember at least two of our players over the past 3 or 4 years that ultimately decided to transfer prior to spring practice but didn't decide until well after NSD, which prevented us from potentially signing an additional recruit each time.

If I failed to take something into account when I came up with my estimate of scholarships please correct me. If we do somehow end up being able to bring in 3 or 4 additional players before NSD that would only add to what is easily one of the best classes that we have ever signed.

Based on what I have heard about the method(s) that the various recruiting services use to determine their class rankings, I believe that the ranking can change significantly with additional recruits until the total class size reaches 20 recruits. Any additional recruits signed beyond the first 20 have much less of an effect on the overall class ranking than each of the first 20 guys. Ergo, our class rank will likely improve more than most other schools since we only have 15 current commitments compared to the vast majority of the other schools in the top 20 that have between 19 and 24 current commitments. The only schools in the top 20 (247 composite rankings) that have fewer than 19 recruits are Bama (18), the real USC (13), and Florida (15).

Considering that our average recruit ranking according to the 24/7 composite (92.81) is actually the fifth highest overall, our current class ranking of 8th could easily improve by signing an additional 3-5 players. Going to Rivals rankings, our average recruit ranking (3.8) is tied with Miami for 4th highest, but our overall class ranking is only 12th. Our class is ranked 5th by ESPN, but I don't have access to the average recruit ranking since I no longer have and ESPN Insider account. With 24/7 being recently acquired by CBS which is the same parent company as the other traditional recruiting service it appears that Scout's recruiting rankings have been merged with those of 24\7. I never liked Scout anyway as they always seemed to differ significantly from the other three services, and not in a good way. I have no idea why, but it seemed like they were often particularly harsh on many of the players that we recruited.

I don't know if our coaches will try to prioritize any specific positions with the few remaining spots that we will potentially have, or if they will just continue to strongly go after the same targets that remain unsigned and just try to get the best players possible for the last few spots regardless of position. Given how few spots we likely have remaining, we may just end up taking whichever of our targets commits first without having the luxury of putting a heavy emphasis on specific positions this late in the process.

If we just remain focused on the same top targets as before then it looks like we the secondary and the OL are the main targets. We would of course be thrilled to be able to sign our top WR target out of Alabama Justyn Ross. Rivals has him listed as a 5 star while ESPN and 24/7 each consider a high 4 star ranked in top 100 nationally. He would be a great addition to our WRU tradition along with Derion Kendrick and the two would complement each other well with Ross being 6'4" and Kenrick being 6'1". That's not to mention that we would also be stealing an in state guy right from under the nose of Saban and Malzahn and adding talent to our offense while blocking the same time.

As far as our other top targets go, there are two top targets at CB and another couple at safety. Brendan Radley-Hines is listed as a 5 star by Rivals and a high 4 star by both 24/7 and ESPN although ESPN does have him ranked much lower at 164th nationally compared to 44th and 17th by 24/7 and Rivals. The other CB that we have been recruiting heavily Patrick Surtain Jr. is another Florida native. He is a consensus 5 star and considered the top CB in the nation ranked in the top six nationally at any position by all three services. We aren't currently considered to be the favorite for either of these guys at this point, but we are still in the running along with 2 or 3 other schools for each of them. I would be much more surprised to see us land Surtain than Radley-Hiles at this point based on everything that I have read along with the fact that we have the benefit of fellow IMG teammates Xavier Thomas and Mike Jones to help us to land Radley-Hiles.

Of course no one was giving us a chance to pluck Jackson Carman from under Urban Meyer's nose last week either, but these types of things are become more and more likely given our recent level of success combined with Dabo and company. Just think back to slightly over a decade ago when outside of a few exceptions we were only able to recruit our players from the limited area of SC, NC, and GA. Back then it was practically seen as an unprecedented shock across the recruiting landscape when a school as irrelevant as little ole Clemson was able to go into Florida less than 30 minutes from Gainesville to steal 5 star RB CJ Spiller out of Urban Meyer's backyard as well away from Bobby Bowden's Seminoles. Fast forward 12 years later and there's virtually no recruit from anywhere in the country that Clemson doesn't at least have a shot at landing. It certainly appears that as long as we can get a recruit on campus we are virtually a lock to ultimately be one of their finalists.

Getting back to the other remaining targets in the 2018 class, we are among the top 4 or 5 schools for a couple blue chip safeties, but we aren't considered the favorite or even to have a decent shot at either of them. Former LSU commit Kelvin Joseph in a high 4 star considered to be one of the top 50 players nationally regardless of position and a top 5 safety by all three services. As a Louisiana native he was committed to LSU for quite a while dating back to Les Miles and remained committed to Ed Orgeron until LSU's home loss to Troy midseason. While LSU is still considered to be the favorite, Alabama and Clemson are the other schools that he has mentioned specifically. It's very rare for a recruit to leave Louisiana when they have an LSU offer, but with fellow Louisiana native Travis Etienne choosing to do exactly that last year along with the exposure we will receive in the upcoming Sugar Bowl in New Orleans will improve our chances.

The other safety target is another guy who was formerly committed but has since reopened his recruiting. Leon O'Neal Jr. is a 4 star guy out of Texas that is ranked 9th, 9th, and 11th at his position by 24/7, ESPN, and Rival respectively. He is in the top 150 nationally by all three services, but despite his decommitment following the firing of Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies are still considered to be the favorite. Oklahoma is thought to be the other most likely landing spot. Perhaps we might have the opportunity to face the Sooners yet again if and when we beat Bama in the Sugar Bowl. Maybe that would be enough to move us ahead of OU as a possible destination.

Although there have been a couple of other various specific names mentioned at times in regards to our recruiting, I'm not sure if we have any more than outside shot at them without hearing more. The highest rated recruit that is sometimes mentioned is probably star OT Nicholas Petit-Frere. There have been rumors of a possible visit at some point, but I have never heard anything for certain and am not aware of any recent developments. Current Auburn commit Matthew Hill is the other name to keep in mind as he has also been mentioned as potentially taking an official visit next month. Auburn has been recruiting him as a WR whereas we are looking at him at safety, but Rivals has him listed as a 4 star athlete ranked just outside the top 150 nationally.

I'm not sure if the coaches might possibly prioritize some of the guys that were further down our list based on the changes in the recruiting landscape after the early signing period. I'm sure that if we were to miss on all of the remaining priority targets or if we were to end up with a couple additional scholarships available immediately after the season ends that our coaches would try to reach out to any remaining uncommitted guys that we have some sort of relationship with. Or just maybe we end up with a total surprise at the 11th hour like Etienne last year.

If we were to secure one or more of our top targets in the secondary and end up with any unexpected spots, I'm not sure which positions we might have a particularly higher need for given the guys we have already signed. I haven't recently looked in detail at the breakdown of each position by how many we players we have currently committed and the number of each position that we currently have on scholarship for each specific class. From what I can remember off hand though, it certainly wouldn't be a wasted spot to sign an additional RB to potentially replace Fuller and Choice since both have been here for four years already. I know we have Lyn J Dixon already committed, and I honestly don't know if Fuller or Choice have given any indication about whether they plan on returning for a fifth year next year. It sure does feel to me like Adam Choice has been here for the past 6 years though given the injuries early in his career, but I would love to have him back. If both Choice and Fuller do return next year then we would have 5 scholarship RB's next year, so we wouldn't need another, but it would put us a year ahead at the position for next year when Fuller and Choice would exhaust their eligibility.

Other than a potential RB, I wouldn't mind seeing us fill any potential remaining scholarships with either OL or DT provided we end up with one of the previosly mentioned guys in the secondary. You can never really have too much depth along the offensive and defensive lines, and we will be losing at the very least two OL with Crowder and Morris graduating. Hyatt, Hearn, and Falcinelli are all eligible for the draft as well, but hopefully we won't be replacing more than one of those junior starters in addition to Crowder. I have to admit that the prospect of returning four starters along our OL along with the depth we have been able to build this year and Jackson Carman coming next year is very exciting. We have the depth to replace more than just Crowder if necessary, but the amount of talent and depth if all the juniors return along our offensive line will be probably the best we've ever had.

We currently have 3 elite DE's committed for this year's class which will be very important if we end up losing either Ferrell or Bryant to the NFL Draft. I can't honestly blame them if they were to choose to declare for the Draft, especially if they end up with a 1st round grade from the NFL's College Advisory committee, but the Clemson fan inside of me would love to have them back. I've never claimed to be any type of expert in the whole process of grading college players for the NFL Draft, and I find that the so called experts like Kiper and McShay are often way off on at least 1/3 or 1/4 of their evaluations. With that qualification, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ferrell end up with a 1st round grade compared to a 2nd or 3rd round grade for Bryant. If that ends up being the case, I don't think it would be unreasonable to lose Ferrell but possibly have Bryant return.

Regardless of what our two starting DE's decide to do next year, there is plenty to be excited about at DE. We couldn't have possibly recruited the position any better with the 5 star #1 stronside DE and the 5 star #2 weakside DE both coming in as well as the added bonus of 4 star WDE Justin Mascoll who is rated as high as #6 at his position and 43rd nationally by ESPN. Add in the additional depth that we will have with the return of Richard Yeargin and Logan Ruedolph after missing the entire season due to injury and we are certain to be as stacked as any program in the country at DE.

I don't know if there are any other DT's out there that we even have on our radar, but adding another talented recruit along the D-line is never a bad idea either. We do currently have two guys committed with Belk and Jeffries to replace most likely one departing junior with Wilkins going pro, but we adding a third guy here would only give us a leg up for next year when Big Dex goes in the event that an unexpected scholarship were to open up. If I had to pick one single position group that has played the biggest role in our improvement from a top 10-15 program during the time Chad Morris was here to being one of the nation's top 2 programs, I would have to pick defensive line. We have improved at nearly every position group across the board, but I'm not sure anything can compare to the way an elite D-line can take over a game and also keep you in each and every game.

One final brief thought before I end yet another incredibly lengthy diatribe on a message board; it has been very impressive to see what Kirby Smart has managed to do with UGA's recruiting the past two or three cycles. Going by the 24/7 composite rankings, they were able to sign the nation's #6 class in 2016 despite not even having a full time coach until after the national championship when Smart left Alabama. They followed that up with the #3 class last year, and they now have the #1 recruiting class for 2018.

Another interesting trend that could have a direct correlation to Georgia's improved recruiting is that for the first time since they finished 4th in recruiting in 2010, Alabama is in danger of not signing the number 1 class in the nation. There's no denying Saban's ability to recruit, but with Kirby Smart leaving Bama and now recruiting directly against them, it's quite possible that this has directly affected Bama's recruiting. It's way too early to tell about Bama, but Georgia's recruiting has markedly improved from being 12th, 8th, and 6th in Richt's final three years to being 6th, 3rd, and 1st under Smart.

I am aware of one specific website that calculates the amount of talent that each program accumulates over multiple cycles. For the past three years 24/7 sports has been posting an interesting chart that ranks all of the top teams in the country based on the talent level of the entire roster of scholarship players. We have improved from where we were in 2015 (73 scholarship players at an average of 88.57 ranking 13th) to 2016 (79 players @88.91 ranking 9th) to 2017 (77 players @ 89.21 ranking 9th). Georgia has improved from 2015 (83 players @89.38 ranking 6th) to 2016 (85 players @89.03 ranking 6th) to 2017 (85 players @91.06 ranking 4th). What has been truly amazing to me is the large number of recruits that seem to end up making a final choice between us and Georgia about their commitment. Just in this cycle I can think of Trevor Lawrence, Jamaryee Salyer, Cade Mays, and Zamir White and I know there are others I can't remember off hand.

While both of our programs are still a good bit behind Bama's perennial top ranked roster that averages between 92.50 and 93.50 per player in a given year, given the recent trends the gap is definitely closing quickly. It's not like Alabama is in a position where the quality of their roster can improve much if any at all. The 15 players in this year's class so far average 92.81 so our talent level will once again improve significantly on the 2018 team from this year. The same goes for Georgia. Unless something changes dramatically next year, it's quite easy to estimate what our talent levels will be in 2018 and 2019 just by looking at the recruiting averages for the previous 4 years. It will be very surprising if we don't see a scenario where the top 4 teams in terms of total talent are Bama, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson in that order or possibly with Ohio State and Georgia being reversed.

For the past 7 years and then the past 3 years we have improved from a team just outside the top 10 to the 2nd most accomplished program in the nation with a realistic chance of becoming the top program. This trend has been accomplished during the first phase with a roster that was somewhere around 15-20th in terms of overall talent. During the second phase we have gone from 13th to 9th in talent level. With our 2018 class we will improve signigicantly possibly to 5th with us passing FSU, LSU, Michigan, and Auburn unless one of these schools recruits a ton of talent before the end of the 2018 cycle. The most exciting prospect of this is that we have already been producing results better than anyone not named Alabama. With our roster improving to an even more impressive level it's incredible to think about what the next several years will look like. Add in yet another "once in a generation talent" at QB that we have coming in and it's not easy to see us maintaining our spot as one of only maybe 2 or 3 programs that are the elite of the elite.

https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite

If any of you made it this far, thanks for taking the time to read all of that dribble. Merry Christmas everyone and as always Go Tigers!!

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Love your analysis and the way you show fair assessment for other teams as well. It contrasts well against the homers who have no understanding of the competitive environment.

I have always believed that winning is based on achievement in four areas.

1. Talent: You have done so well in discussing recruitment. We seem to do a good job of talent assessment even when the ranking services miss one. Another element on talent is recruiting based on need and specific skills. Case in point WR. We seem to recruit different characteristics for the 3 positions. Or TE, we have the BB player from Seneca coming in. He recently started playing FB. He even played QB this year. Ranking services obviously have little to go on but he may be a real star at TE if developed. Finally, our coaches develop talent and allow them to play early. It is wonderful watch, even though I admit to anxiety attacks early in the season when our starters are rotated out.

2 Scheme: Bama and now GA are build to win with defense and play power run game on offense. They rely less on good QB play. Our scheme of elite defense and spread/no huddle offense can win against these teams. I wont elaborate but we have a scheme that gives us an advantage. We have coaches that call a well designed game plan.

3 Execution: Every coach wants good execution but few achieve it. Our coaching staff push the fine details and it translates to execution on the field. Someone could write a book on this, but I am not a writer. Lets just say Dabo expects good execution and challenges players to demonstrate it in practice first and then in the game.

4 Culture: You could also call it passion, focus, attitude, physical play,, drive, preparation, etc. This is Dabo's secret success formula, and he is the master. Our teams never have games that are bigger than them. They rise to every occasion, with big games being their best moments. Again another book for someone.

All this to say that recruiting is a very important and necessary component of winning. However we do so mush more and transform top 15 recruiting class into top 2 teams. As our recruiting continues to improve I suspect we will separate ourselves more from most of the other teams. Lets see if Bama adjusts to stay at the Top and if GA can translate unbelievable recruiting into elite status. I mean GA has 31 seniors this year, so can they reload next year just like Bama and Clemson has demonstrated. Ohio State????

Merry Christmas to all, especially the Tigers.

Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

9 seniors on scholarship, 2 other walk-ons, and Trapp

Re: 9 seniors on scholarship, 2 other walk-ons, and Trapp

Re: 9 seniors on scholarship, 2 other walk-ons, and Trapp

,STS,TCI, TI and 247 ALL stating that we could take

Re: Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Re: Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Re: Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Re: Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Re: Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Re: Christmas day recruiting primer (extremely long)

Goodness gracious

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