At a Crossroads? Analysis of the Dabo Era-Part 1

Dec 2, 2022, 12:44 PM

	Offense and Defense Combined Charts.png(92.2 K)
	Offense and Defense Trends.pdf(192.4 K)

With all the discussions on-going over the last week, and with the performance of our team the last 2 years, I decided it was time to start digging into the numbers in the Dabo Era. I pulled all of the data available for the team from 2009 through last weekend (shoutout to sports reference for having the data) into a "master" database and have been looking at the trends over Dabo's 14 years as the permanent head coach (not including stats from 08).

I plan on doing a few posts because the sheer volume involved is too much for one or two posts. Today, let's take a look at the Offense and Defense from a "phase" of the game perspective (to include yards, points and turnovers). Over the next few weeks, I plan on going "into the weeds" more (ex. specifically the WRs, QBs, RBs, TEs, etc...). See attached for a make-shift Quad Chart. Starting from the Top Left:

----"Offense - Total, Pass, Rush Yards/Game"
----"Defense - Total, Pass, Rush Yards/Game"
----"Points/Game" (Offense and Defense Averages Scored/Allowed Respectively)
----"Average Turnovers/Game/Year" (Turnovers committed and forced respectively)

Some Observations and a couple of things to keep in mind:

-You can't make a decision solely from this information; HOWEVER; there are some clear trends that cannot be ignored. 14 years of data is still likely a little small of a sample size for these types of analyst, but it is the best we have for now.

-The 2009 and 2010 Offenses utilized a different offensive philosophy so you can't directly compare them to the offenses from 2011 on; HOWEVER; using these as a "low point" offensively due to the transition of the offense to a spread system that (more often than not) results in more yardage than the traditional pro style offense is possible.

-Yards seem to be strongly relevant to the amount of points scored on Offense with a clear distinction between averaging above or below 500 yards/game.

-Of note is the improvement of the offense after a "low" point. The improvement seems to improve for about 2 years after the low point, then levels out, then drops again (again, multiple reasons why but definitely something to pay attention to). Does that mean we will see the 2023 offense get back to averaging near 40 points a game?

-Points/game given up by the defense in 2022 is similar to that of 2020, 2015, and 2013, BUT the key difference in those seasons overall is due to the 2022 offense only averaging 406 yards/game which is about 100 yards less/game than the other years (2020= 502, 2015=514, 2013=508).

-Total Defense has been on a slight downward trend since 2017 with the 2022 (and 2020) Total defense averages being the worst since 2013. Seems to be as a result of the pass defense progressively becoming worse over time on average.

I plan on updating the stats after the ACC title game this weekend and will be making another post next week. Any recommendations for the next topic? Thinking WR production or QB production for the next one.

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At a Crossroads? Analysis of the Dabo Era-Part 1

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