Advanced Outlook: Clemson at Duke projections

Cade Klubnik and the Tigers will look to field a more consistent passing attack and pull away in Durham.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Fri Sep 01 10:06:03 GMT-04:00 2023

Clemson’s road Labor Day ACC opener this year figures to be – on paper – more of a challenge than the 2022 edition.

Duke returns 19 starters from a nine-win team, including some of the ACC’s best from last season and some prime pro candidates.

The Tigers return several key playmakers themselves and have a team better-positioned health-wise, especially for a new-look offense under Garrett Riley.

Here are how preseason metrics evaluate the teams:

Preseason efficiency projection: Offense: | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (No. 7 overall): 14 | 8 | NR

DU SP+ ranks (50): 45 | 54 | NR

CU FEI ranks (9): 28 | 3 | | 44

DU FEI ranks (61): 51 | 65 | 31

CU FPI ranks (8): NR | NR | NR

DU FPI ranks (59): NR | NR | NR

With no 2023 data in yet, there’s not much to say here other than Clemson is regarded as a unanimous Top 10 team versus a Blue Devils squad that, even with several players returning, has analytics that tend to say nine wins last year was overachieving.

Three Duke players to watch

1. QB Riley Leonard

Leonard is a projected first-round NFL draft pick in 2024 with his dual-threat ability. He passed for nearly 3,000 yards (2,967) on a 63.8 completion rate last season with 20 touchdowns to six interceptions and rushed for nearly 700 yards (699) with another 13 scores.

His overall Pro Football Focus passing grades don’t overwhelm you, however, ranking 116th in the 2022 QB rankings that aren’t adjusted for number of snaps, at a touch below a 70 grade (69.4). Of QBs to top 100 dropbacks, his 80 grade as a runner was 13th-best nationally, however.

Leonard’s top game grade (83) came in a close loss (38-35) hosting eventual Coastal Division winner UNC, completing 31-of-41 passes for 245 yards for a 75-pass grade and running the ball five times for 142 yards with a touchdown for a 75.5 grade. He only attempted four passes of 20-plus yards in that game but completed three of them for 78 yards and a touchdown. Leonard was only under pressure 26.8% of the snaps against Tar Heels (79.4 grade against pressure), compared to a season average of 29.1% (49.1 grade in those snaps).

2. DL DeWayne Carter

Carter proved to be one of the most disruptive pass rushers in college football from the interior last season, ranking 17th among defensive linemen (non-edge rushers) in pass-rush grade (81.9; min. 200 snaps) and second among Power 5 interior defenders in QB pressures (52). His overall 86.3 PFF grade is the best among returning Duke defensive players after being credited with eight sacks by the outlet in 2022 under Garrett Riley.

3. WR Jalon Calhoun

The Greenville native Calhoun (5-11 191) heads into a fifth season in a prominent role in the Duke offense, upping his catches, yards and touchdowns each of the last three campaigns. He was a go-to last year with 62 catches for 873 yards and four touchdowns. Calhoun also made third-team All-ACC as a punt returner.

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

It’s not uncommon for a team to be sharper offensively in the first quarter with scripted plays being run, but passing efficiency over the course of a game does stand out in Clemson’s recent teams versus a prolific year from TCU in 2022.

Clemson’s completion percentage dropped by just over 10% from the first quarter (66.7%) to the final periods of action in the last two seasons (56.2%), with nine touchdowns to four interceptions in the first quarter and 27 touchdowns to 17 picks over the remaining periods. TCU also had much better starts last season with a 72.4 completion rate and nine touchdowns to no picks in the first quarter, but the Horned Frogs did also connect on 63.1% of their throws with 24 touchdowns to eight picks in the rest of the game. TCU also punched in 28 rushing scores from the second quarter-on, compared to 24 for Clemson last season.

Odds

Clemson -12.5; 55.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 33-18 (81% Clemson projection)

ESPN FPI: 86.7% Clemson projection

FEI: 30-14 Clemson (83.1% Clemson projection)

CLEMSON @ DUKE pic.twitter.com/g3wdX8bvLB
— parker fleming (@statsowar) August 29, 2023

Analysis: It’s a clean sweep for the analytics on Clemson covering the just-under-two-touchdown spread on the game. The Tigers topped the 24-point number in the opener in Atlanta versus Georgia Tech last year with a 41-10 decision but had wins closer than the spread number in the next three contests. The season before, Clemson didn’t cover a spread until Week 9 versus Florida State, but this is a new season and a new offense and the Tigers have the advantage on both sides of the ball to clear Duke by at least 15+ points here. Pick: Clemson -12.5 (Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).