Thursday October 09, 2008

Wake Forest Preview

Wake Forest Preview
The Demon Deacons enter tonight’s game 3-1 and 1-0 in the ACC but are coming off of a bad loss at home to Navy.

Turnovers are the key to their season so far. In their win at Florida State the Deacons forced seven turnovers. In the loss at home to Navy, Wake Forest turned it over six times.

Here is a game-by-game review of Wake’s four games to date:
Wake Forest 41 Baylor 13
The Deacons forced five Baylor turnovers and Riley Skinner got his junior season off to a great start on the road in Waco, TX. Skinner completed 27 of 36 passes for 220 yards for three touchdowns without an interception. Wake Forest turned three of the Bear turnovers into scores. The Deacs converted 7 of 14 third down opportunities and dominated the time of possession.

Wake Forest 30 Ole Miss 28
Sam Swank kicked a 41-yard field goal with three seconds remaining in the first home game for the Demon Deacons. Swanks boot rallied Wake Forest who had given up the go ahead touchdown just a minute earlier. Wake Forest forced three more turnovers and Skinner hit on 32 of 43 passes for 267 yards for two touchdowns and no interceptions. The Deacs could not run the ball against the Rebels and managed only 81 rushing yards on the day. Wake was 7 of 19 on third and fourth down conversions as D.J. Boldin emerged as a threat at wide out with 11 catches for 123 yards.

Wake Forest 12 Florida State 3
Wake Forest improved to 3-0 and 1-0 in the conference by forcing seven Florida State turnovers in Tallahassee. The Deacs defense was dominating in holding the Seminoles to three points on 12 first downs and 220 total yards. In the last two games at home against Wake Forest, FSU has scored three points and committed 11 turnovers. Wake Forest could not run the ball successfully so Riley Skinner went to the air for 217 yards. The Deacs could not get the ball in the end zone and settled for four Sam Swank field goals.

Navy 24, Wake Forest 17
Turnovers were once again the key as Navy forced six turnovers and intercepted Skinner four times. The Deacs had a hard time in their vertical passing game and abandoned the run after falling behind 17-0. Navy’s option attack amassed 292 rushing yards as the Midshipmen had the ball for almost 37 minutes. The loss denied Wake’s attempt to have a seven game winning streak for the first time since 1944.

Wake Forest Offense
Wake Forest has had a hard time running the football as witnessed by their 84.8 rushing yards per game which is 11th in the ACC. They are seventh in the league in scoring with a 25.0 points per game mark and sixth in the league in total offense with 328.2 yards per game but that is mostly because of the Deacs league leading 243.5 yards per game through the air.

Their offense has primarily been the Riley Skinner show. In the three wins, Skinner has thrown for five touchdowns without a pick. In the Navy loss Skinner had one touchdown and four interceptions. Part of that was the fact that Riley forced the ball downfield in the Navy contest. He was much more effective in the wins with a short passing attack.

Wake Forest does not have the kind of offensive line they had in their ACC title team and that is a main reason why the run has not been successful. The line has allowed 10 sacks which is 10th in the ACC.

This has not been the most efficient offense in the last two games as the Deacs are currently 10th in the league third down conversions with a 34.4% mark and are currently 11th in red zone scoring but part of that was the FSU performance.

Wake Forest Defense
The Demon Deacons are excellent on defense mainly because they start eight seniors and three juniors. Linebacker Aaron Curry might be the top linebacker in the conference and cornerback Alphonso Smith is thought of by some as the top corner in the league.

The stats are not overly impressive on this side of the ball though. Wake is 5th in the ACC in scoring defense (17.0 ppg), 4th in total defense (293.2 ypg), 9th in rushing defense (148.8 ypg), 2nd in pass defense (144.5 ypg), 10th in third down conversions (40.4%) and 10th in red zone defense.

Some of those stats are misleading because of Navy’s option attack which inflated the rushing numbers. I personally think Wake has of the better run defenses in the conference this season.

Wake Forest Special Teams
Sam Swank is the key to the Deacons special teams as he has to be considered one of the top place kickers and punters in the country. However, Swank has a quad injury and is considered 50-50 for tonight’s contest. His injury would change the complexion of this game because he is part of the reason why the Deacs usually win field position type games.

Keys
I think history tells us that when Clemson runs the football effectively the Tigers usually win. I also hope the stigma of Wake Forest is gone when you consider the Navy loss and the Tigers domination over Wake in the last five quarters of football between the two where Clemson has outscored Wake 68-10. However, I also see Wake as a desperate football team that needs to win and one that could draw off of the home field energy on a Thursday night game.

Offensively the Tigers need to be able to establish the run and score touchdowns instead of field goals. Defensively the Tigers must get pressure on Skinner and tackle well.

A Clemson win would go a long way in restoring some confidence. A Clemson loss means the end of the ACC title hopes the beginning of an ugly scene in Tigertown.

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