Wednesday July 15, 2009

The New ACC-First Five Years; Next Five Years

The First Five Years of the New ACC
In 2004 the Atlantic Coast Conference expanded to 11 teams by adding Virginia Tech and Miami and went to 12 with the addition of Boston College the next season.

In the five years since expansion, Virginia Tech has won the conference three times with Florida State and Wake Forest winning the other two titles.

The conference spilt into divisions in the 2005 season. Boston College has won the Atlantic Division twice while Florida State and Wake Forest have one division title each.

Virginia Tech has won three of the four division titles with Georgia Tech taking home the Coastal Division once.

Here are the conference records for each ACC team since the conference expanded in 2004 (Boston College’s record is since 2005):

VT 34-9 .790
Boston College 21-13 .617
Georgia Tech 25-16 .609
Florida State 24-17 .585
Clemson 22-18 .550
Virginia 21-19 .525
Miami 20-20 .500
Wake Forest 20-21 .487
Maryland 18-22 .450
North Carolina 18-22 .450
NCSU 15-25 .375
Duke 2-38 .050

In looking at the numbers, there has been one dominant team in Virginia Tech (34-9) and one pathetic program in Duke (2-38). I was surprised to see Boston College and Georgia Tech have better winning percentages in the conference than Florida State. The Seminoles have been down but I still did not think Georgia Tech had more wins than FSU in the last five years.

I was also a little surprised to find out NC State is just 15-25. Maybe some would be surprised to see Wake Forest has a losing record in the conference since 2004. I think the public perception is that Jim Grobe and Wake Forest would have had a winning record.

I think it is fair to use Virginia Tech as the blue print in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Since joining the league the Hokies have been the model of consistency. They are 16-4 at home and 16-4 on the road in the conference since 2004. They are 2-1 in neutral site ACC games which are the conference title games.

I was not surprised to see the Hokies were 16-4 at home in the ACC but was shocked to find out they had the same record on the road. I think the perception was the Hokies played very well at home but had not performed that well on the road.

Their success on the road is probably supporting evidence to those that claim defense, special teams and the running game can lead to wins on the road.

When the conference announced expansion, like many others, I believed Miami would have been a powerhouse and the Hurricanes would have been perennial ACC title contenders along with FSU, Virginia Tech and maybe Clemson. We were wrong about the Canes but I think few would have thought Miami would not have a winning conference record in the first five years of the league.

The Next Five Years of the New ACC

Here is what I could expect over the next five years in the ACC:
Virginia Tech-This is the most consistent program in the league because of their staff and the identity of the program. Tech’s facilities are first class and there is enough talent in the area to continue the success. I am not sure they can go 34-9 or win three of the next five ACC championships but they should be the top program in the league over the next five seasons.

Boston College-Eventually staff turnover will hurt this program. The Eagles are on their third head coach in the last four seasons. In my opinion this program benefitted from some terrific stars but graduation will hurt. I just don’t see Boston College maintaining its success.

Georgia Tech-This is the hot team in the league based upon last year’s 9-4 record with the new staff and offensive overhaul. I think Tech will have some excellent seasons in the next five seasons but I am not sold that this will be the best program in the ACC.

Florida State-This one is difficult to predict. It is hard to imagine the Seminoles being any worse than they have for the past five seasons. However, how long will Bowden hang around and what will the transition look like under Jimbo Fisher?

Clemson-I think it is safe to say Clemson has underachieved over the last five seasons. I expect the Tigers to improve and win more than 22 ACC games over the next five seasons.

Virginia-The short-term future looks dark in my opinion. I don’t believe Al Groh will be around in five years and the long-term outlook will depend on who succeeds Groh.

Miami-The talent level should mean more wins. I still have reservations about the staff and a lot will depend on the two new coordinators. Miami can’t go 20-20 over the next five years. Look for improvement here.

Wake Forest-Wake is limited in so many ways but Jim Grobe is a miracle worker. If Grobe hangs around, Wake Forest will continue to improve. If not, all bets are off.

Maryland-Ralph Friedgen is one of the top coaches in America. He fixes problems as well as any coach. I am not sure James Franklin can do what Friedgen has done.

North Carolina-Butch Davis has made strides here and the Tar Heels should be title contenders over the next few seasons. This staff recruits well and the program is attractive enough to continue the improvement.

NC State-Tom O’Brien made the move from Boston to Raleigh and was close to losing the fan base in his first two seasons by going 11-14. But he is 2-0 against North Carolina and has recruited well so far. I would be shocked if NC State is not the most improved team in the league over the next five year. They will win many more than the 15 ACC games they won in the first five years of the new conference.

Duke-How do you not improve on a 2-38 record? Duke may not be a power but David Cutcliffe is a good one that will certainly improve this awful program. No titles but improve is near.

Who knows what will happen the in September of 2009 but here is the way-too-early prediction for the next five years in the ACC:

VT 28-12
Georgia Tech 26-14
Florida State 26-14
Clemson 26-14
Miami 23-17
North Carolina 23-17
NC State 23-17
Wake Forest 20-20
Maryland 15-25
Boston College 13-27
Virginia 12-28
Duke 5-35

ACC Titles
Virginia Tech 2, Georgia Tech 1, Florida State 1, Clemson 1

Atlantic Division Titles
Florida State 2, Clemson 2, NC State 1

Coastal Division Titles
Virginia Tech 2, Georgia Tech 1, North Carolina 1, Miami 1

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Prayer List
We have started a prayer list on the blog. Here are the guidelines:
*If you are offended by prayer or prayer lists then I apologize in advance. The blog is free and the prayer list will be on the bottom of the page so you don’t have to read it.
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Those who need our prayers include:
Finn Brookover, Mrs. Kathleen Bowers, Larry in Naples, FL, RTG-Pawsitive Tiger, Mary-Louise Pawlowski (John's daughter), Jo Ann Bachman, Frank Taylor, Kenneth Bryant, Pruitt Martin, Got igers and his family, David Rowland, Leonard Gillespie and his family, Jim S, Christine Hepfer, Daniel Rosborough, Amy Murphey, Jack Huffman, Nancy Winkler, Dr. Nancy Strom Morgan, John Reeve, Eileen Woodrum, Ethel Southard, Vinnie Brock, Jean-Pierre Bailey, Kaitlyn L, William Perry, Delores Weaver, Eric Boessneck, John Bowers, Jimmy Ness, Susan Miller, Joyce Harley, Steve Proveaux, John Petrey, the Byrd family, the Dixon family, Chalmers Carr.