Tuesday October 20, 2009

Breaking Serve

Breaking Serve
In championship tennis, the player who breaks the opponent’s serve has a big advantage because often it is a fairly difficult thing to do.

In the Atlantic Division of the Atlantic Coast Conference, football may resemble tennis with the home games being the service games. Coming into this weekend, no Atlantic Division team has won a conference road game this year.

Clemson is 0-2 on the road with losses to Georgia Tech and Maryland. Boston College is 0-2 with losses at Clemson and Virginia Tech. Wake Forest is 0-2 on the road with losses at Boston College and Clemson. Maryland is 0-1 on the road with a loss at Wake Forest. Florida State is winless in the league and 0-1 in the ACC on the road with a loss at Boston College. NC State is also winless in the league and has road losses at Wake Forest and Boston College.

I think 5-3 wins the division but there is still a chance for a 4-4 team to win with a tiebreaker. Mathematically, all six teams are still alive in the chase for the division title but NC State and Florida State are 0-3 and have little hope at this point. State still has games at Florida State and at Virginia Tech and home conference games with Maryland, Clemson and North Carolina. I just don’t see how the Wolfpack have any chance to turn around this season.

Florida State is 0-3 in the ACC with a Thursday night game this week at North Carolina. The Seminoles still have road games at Clemson and Wake Forest and home tilts with NC State and Maryland. FSU has not played well in the conference yet and could be all but eliminated this Thursday or early in November.

Maryland is another long shot at this time. The Terps are 1-2 in the league. Road games at Duke, NC State and Florida State and home contests with Virginia Tech and Boston College are remaining for this bad football team. The most positive Maryland fan cannot draw up a scenario where the Terps can win the division.

So in my opinion, we are practically down to three teams for the division title. Wake Forest is the longest shot of the three teams. The Deacs are 2-2 in the ACC but would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Clemson and Boston College because they dropped games on the road to both the Tigers and Eagles. The Demon Deacons still have games at Georgia Tech and Duke and home games with Miami and Florida State. Wake is still in the race but it faces a big uphill challenge.

So that leaves us with Boston College and Clemson. The Eagles are 3-2 and have the easiest road from here on out. They still have road games at Virginia and Maryland and a home game with North Carolina. Interestingly enough, the Eagles go out of conference to Notre Dame and host Central Michigan then have an open date before finishing to league with three conference games starting on November 14.

Clemson is 2-2 with road games at Miami and NC State and home contests with Florida State and Virginia.

Who knows how this crazy division will turnout but I think we have a good idea of how each team can stake their claim to the title. Boston College has a half game lead because they have played one more game but the teams are tied in the loss column with two losses. The Tigers have the tie breaker over BC so a win at Miami this week could really help the Tigers’ chances.

Clemson is an underdog this week but should be favored in the last three ACC games of the season. If the Tigers drop this weekend’s game, they would need the Eagles to lose at least one more time. I am not sure if Clemson is good enough to beat Florida State, NC State and Virginia but I am just as unsure of Boston College in their games with Virginia, North Carolina and Marland.

The best news going for the Tigers at this point is they have the head-to-head tie breaker with Boston College and Wake Forest. This means Clemson would win the tie breaker if there was a two team tie with Clemson and either Boston College or Wake Forest. It also means the Tigers would win if all three teams were tied in the three team tie breaker. Boston College would win the tie breaker if they finished tied with Wake Forest.

What all of this means is the Tigers’ wins over Boston College and Wake Forest could be huge in case Clemson is involved in a two team or three team tie breaker with the Eagles and Deacs.

Perhaps the division winner will be decided away from home. The reason Boston College, Clemson and Wake Forest are at the top of the division at this point is each team is undefeated at home in the ACC. Wake still has Miami and Florida State at home combined with the road games at Georgia Tech and Duke to give the Deacs a very tough road to the title.

I am almost all but convinced the division will come down to Clemson and Boston College. BC and Clemson could go undefeated at home in the league if the Eagles beat North Carolina and Clemson beats FSU and Virginia. So the league could come down to who can win on the road. Clemson has a tough one this week at Miami and still has a trip to Raleigh on the books. Boston College still has trips to Virginia and Maryland so the Eagles have the easier road. However, Clemson is better than BC and has a better chance to win each week plus the Tigers still have the tie breaker with BC.

Another factor that will be interesting to watch will be the timing of each game. Boston College is off from conference play until November 14th then play on the 21st and 28th. Clemson has played one less conference game than BC now but will have played one more conference game than the Eagles by the time BC plays another league game. In other words, BC’s chances will be greatly affected in the next three weeks without playing a conference game and/or Clemson’s ACC title hopes could be decided the weekend Clemson plays South Carolina even though the Tigers would not be playing a conference game that day.

In summary, there are still more questions than answers in this division race. No one in the division has won a conference road game this season so that will be something to watch for in the race. Also, Clemson holds the two team and three team tie breakers with Boston College and Wake Forest. NC State and FSU are still in the race but need to win soon and Maryland is still terrible.

This is the third time we have looked at the division on this blog and each time the prospects look different. Who knows where this division will be after this weekend.

The Brad Hughes All-State Insurance Agency

Prayer List
We have started a prayer list on the blog. Here are the guidelines:
*If you are offended by prayer or prayer lists then I apologize in advance. The blog is free and the prayer list will be on the bottom of the page so you don’t have to read it.
*If you would like to add someone to the list please e-mail me at mickeyplyler@hotmail.com
*If you want the reason for the prayer to be added to the name please specify in your e-mails.
*Please let me know when it is appropriate to take the person off of the prayer list

Those who need our prayers include:
Finn Brookover, Larry in Naples, FL, RTG-Pawsitive Tiger, Mary-Louise Pawlowski (John's daughter), Jo Ann Bachman, Frank Taylor, Kenneth Bryant, Pruitt Martin, Got igers and his family, David Rowland, Leonard Gillespie and his family, Jim S, Christine Hepfer, Daniel Rosborough, Amy Murphey, Jack Huffman, Nancy Winkler, Dr. Nancy Strom Morgan, John Reeve, Eileen Woodrum, Ethel Southard, Vinnie Brock, Jean-Pierre Bailey, Kaitlyn L, Delores Weaver, Eric Boessneck, John Bowers, Jimmy Ness, Susan Miller, Joyce Harley, Steve Proveaux, John Petrey, Chalmers Carr, Drayton Melton, Jeffrey Greene, the Hutto family, Sherl Drawdy, Caleb Kennedy, Ann Fallaw, Bob Pollock, Teresa O'Connor, Matt Jacobs, Mike Kingsmore.