Thursday December 27, 2007

Bowl Preview

Auburn Defense
I did an interview yesterday for nbcsports.com with an Auburn blogger and he mentioned that he thought the game would come down to Clemson’s offense against Auburn’s defense and I would agree.

Can Clemson move the ball on a talented Auburn defense? This is a test and a big challenge. Auburn is 6th in the country in terms of scoring defense (16.7), 8th in total defense (298.3), 27th against the run (119.3) and 6th (179.0) against the pass. Auburn’s defense is 49th in the nation in terms of third down conversion defense (37.6%).

Auburn’s defensive ends are a lot like Virginia Tech in they are quick and talented. Quentin Groves is a tough match up especially considering Clemson has to replace suspended offensive tackle Chris Capote. Pat Sims is a huge defensive tackle that was an All-SEC pick this season.

Tray Blackmon is one of the most talented linebackers in the country but he has been hobbled by injuries until late in the season. Clemson was a runner-up for linebacker Craig Stevens.

Auburn’s secondary is led by All-SEC selection Patrick Lee, a big-physical corner. He is a player that you have to game plan for.

Defense was not the problem in the first two losses of the year. It was the offense and turnovers that out the Tigers in a bad position. Auburn had five turnovers in the loss to South Florida and five more the following week in the loss to Mississippi State. They turned it over four times in the loss to Georgia. The only loss where they took care of the football was in Baton Rouge.

The defense did not play well against LSU and gave up 488 yards to a very balanced offense and Georgia had 417 in another balanced attack.

Auburn gave up more than 20 only in three games this season: South Florida, LSU and Georgia.

Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is a very aggressive personality and if you are going to the game he will not be hard to miss on the sidelines. The emotional Muschamp put together game plans that held Tim Tebow and Darren McFadden better than any defense that faced the Heisman finalist. Tebow ran for one touchdown and passed for one. McFadden had 17 carries for 43 yards and was held without a touchdown. In fact Auburn held Florida to 14 first downs and Arkansas to 11 first downs.

Auburn’s Offense
The Auburn offense was not very impressive this season and it ended up costing offensive coordinator Al Borges’ job.

Auburn was 82nd in the country in scoring offense (24.3), 101st in total offense (327.8), 56th in rushing offense (154.2) and 107th in passing offense (173.7).

They are 82nd in the nation in third down conversion percentage on offense (36.6).

Part of Auburn’s issues on offense comes with the fact they have three freshmen offensive linemen in their starting lineup. Left tackle Ryan Pugh, right guard Chaz Ramsey and right tackle Lee Ziemba have played well despite being freshmen.

Quarterback Brandon Cox is a senior but he has struggled at times this season as witnessed by his nine touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. This was a surprise considering Cox is a three-year starter. In his defense, Auburn was young up front and lacked playmakers at wide receiver.

Also contributing to Auburn’s offensive woes was the lack of big plays at running back. With the exception of the New Mexico State game, Auburn did not have a 100-yard rusher in this season.

Ben Tate, Brad Lester and Mario Fannin should all play Monday in the bowl game. All three are talented but do not compare to the great Auburn backs in recent years like Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown and Kenny Irons.

Rodgeriqus Smith is the leading receiver for Auburn with 48 catches for 660 yards and five touchdowns. Montez Billings is the other starter at wide out who had a solid season. At times over the last couple of seasons, Auburn has gotten fullback Carl Stewart and tight ends Cole Bennett, Gabe McKenzie and Tommy Trott involved in the passing game.

Clemson’s defensive staff has to prepare for Auburn’s personnel but also have to prepare for Auburn’s scheme and Troy’s scheme because Auburn hired Troy’s Tony Franklin as its new offensive coordinator.

Special Teams
In recent years, few programs have been better on special teams than Auburn. The Tigers are 3rd in the nation in net punting this season. Also, freshman place-kicker Will Bynum had an outstanding first season including the game-winner against Florida in the swamp.

Keys
I think there are a few keys to Monday night’s contest.
1-Clemson has to be balanced on offense.
2-Turnovers are crucial to both teams because it difficult to drive the length of the field on both defenses.
3-Field position is always a key in close, low-scoring games.

I would also look for a couple of trick plays to make their way into the game. Auburn’s Tommy Tuberville is known for on-sides kicks and tricks and Clemson’s Tommy Bowden usually has one or two up his sleeve and has not used many this season.

In the end, I think Auburn is the tougher team but Clemson is the more talented team. In my opinion Auburn is better on defense but Clemson’s defense is close. The main advantage Clemson has is on offense. Clemson is much more balanced and has more weapons than Auburn and in the end I think this will be the difference in Monday’s affair.

It should be an electric atmosphere in a great venue. The game will feature great players like Auburn’s Quentin Groves and Clemson’s James Davis. This will be Clemson’s second in a series of three straight SEC games away from home. How will Clemson’s two new starters at linebacker play? How will Chris Hairston play in Capote’s place? So many storylines and so much excitement. I can’t wait to see you guys in Atlanta.

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