Thursday August 23, 2007

Intangibles

Intangibles
I think I am permanently out of the prediction business partly because of the things you can’t account for. In this world we analyze everything and try to predict the future of a lot of aspects of life. We can base predictions on history but it is extremely difficult to project human performance. Below are 12 things that have me out of the prediction mode:

Kicking Game
A few years ago Auburn had a place-kicker that was an All-American as a junior but he could not hit the ocean from the beach as a senior. Last season Florida won the national title despite its place-kicker going 6-15 on field goals including 1-7 from 30-39 yards. They say kicking is like golf because rhythm and confidence are so important so ask David Duval, Ian Baker-Finch and Seve Ballesteros how it feels to go from the top to obscurity in a blink of an eye.

Last season Clemson had All-ACC candidate Jad Dean and it seemed extra points were an adventure.

I hear good things on Mark Buchholz and Jimmy Maners. I hear the schemes are more solid. However, I have heard that in the past also. No offense but how do you know about your kicking game until the season gets here?

Turnovers
We have seen Clemson go +9 in the turnover department in 2005 and -8 in 2004. Coaches can say they will emphasize turnovers more each year but how do you know how the ball will bounce?

Turnovers are one of the most important aspects of any game at this level but it makes it difficult when as aspect of the game is this important but we have no leading indicator on how it will shake out.

Southern Cal went only +4 last season but +21 in 2006. Arkansas won the SEC West last year but went -4 in the turnover department. LSU and Arkansas have not been in the plus side of the turnover margin in three seasons. Alabama was +7 for the season yet lost six games but eight points or less. But Wake Forest went +13 in the department and won the ACC.

Momentum
I am a firm believer in the idea of the season changes each week because of momentum and confidence. We have seen teams get on a roll become hard to stop and we have the seen the opposite side of the equation when it comes to negative momentum. The football season is long and momentum plays a big part in it.

Injuries
Perhaps one of the most important aspects of a season is the injury situation. The timing of injuries and who gets injured are huge. Also teams can afford some injuries at one position where another position might be devastated. We can try to predict a lot of outcomes of a season but how do you account for the idea that Anthony Waters goes down in week one?

Injuries are coming and you have to hope you can survive them. Everyone goes through it but the ones that can emerge with less significant injuries are the ones that can make runs at championships.

Adversity
Through a long season adversity is going to strike every team in the country. Does it come in the devastating form like it did in Miami when Bryon Pata gets killed or does it happen in the form of a much less significant example? Florida State is currently dealing with Mickey Andrews’ son’s death so the Seminole family is hurting.

You know adversity will strike but you don’t know to what extent and you don’t know how your team will handle it.

Leadership
Many times you see a player who is a high character kid who makes good grades and is a solid football player but for whatever reason he is not a leader. We also see leaders that emerge that you would have never guessed like former walk-on Tony Elliot at Clemson in 2003.

Each year we hear coaches across the country tell us how the senior leaders are stepping up better than ever this year but I prefer to take a wait and see approach.

Pressure
Pressure will rear its head at some point for almost every team. Sometimes the pressure comes in the form of big games and title chances while other times it might be the pressure to become bowl eligible. There comes some pressure to save your coach’s job at some schools. Every team in the nation will face some pressure at some point and how each reacts is extremely important.

Weather
I remember going to a Maryland-Clemson game in the 1980s in College Park where the wind was blowing so hard that Dale Hatcher’s punts would go about 40 yards at their peak but then were blown back another 30 yards. How do you know when a Hurricane and the downpours will affect your game? How can you tell when cramps and heat are the big factor? Weather is important and if you don’t know what it will be like tomorrow then how do you know when it might become a factor in a game later?

Officiating
Rarely does an official decide a game but they can have a big role at times. The interception at Boston College last year that was reversed played a big role in BC’s win. Think that was a good spot against South Carolina last year? Think that might have made a big difference in the outcome?

Scandal
Miami was not a great team last year but after the fight with Florida International the Canes suspended enough players to have a 20-15 war against Duke the following week. Oklahoma lost two stars when the car dealership news hit last August. Scandal will happen somewhere this season and your team might be the one it hits or you may be playing them the next week and get the benefit of playing a team with suspended players. Do you think Falcons will miss Michael Vick this year?

Academics
It seems we have all of the news from academic suspensions heading into the season but players have to do well enough in class each semester to be eligible for the bowl games.

Luck
Analyze all you want but luck is always a factor and it is always a factor that you cannot predict.

You can make predictions if you would like but I am retiring from the prediction field unless you will let me know up front who will get injured, who will snap the ball over the punter’s head, which game will be moved to the end of the season because of a hurricane, which game will swing because of bad officiating and which holder will drop the ball (Dallas Cowboys in 2006 and Miami Hurricanes in 2005). The teams are close enough in talent across the country and those intangibles will become a factor so I am deferring to the real experts in this field.

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