Monday April 30, 2007

Expectations; Program Potential; College Baseball Changes

Expectations
On Thursday I published my list of short term and long term expectations in football for Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State Georgia Tech and Maryland.

I mentioned, "Personnel has changed everywhere. Coaching staffs have changed at some schools. Schemes, schedules, injuries and a ton of other variables have changed throughout the league but the one thing that remains constant is the level of expectation across the league.
Here is what I think fans should expect at the other six of the ACC schools if they are honest with themselves:"

Miami
Short Term-The talent level is better than it appeared in recent years but I think Miami still has issues. Discipline will be better but this is not a top ten-type team yet. Randy Shannon is unproven as a coach and his staff has its work cut out for it to get back to where Cane fans expect.
Long term-Like FSU, this program is a top ten power for a reason. Four national titles under four coaches says a lot about this program. There are issues there (stability, discipline, facilities, etc.) but the recruiting advantages far outweigh any negatives.

North Carolina
Short Term-Like Miami, UNC will be better than last year but just how much better remains to be seen. They will be better coached and I doubt they will quit like they did last year. Butch Davis is a good coach but he has some rebuilding to do.
Long term-I think this is a top 20-type of program. The people care about basketball first but they like to see big-time wins in football too. I think the commitment is there and the facilities are there. Kids like the campus and I think they will be able to recruit better in the future. This program shouldn't be this bad for long.

NC State
Short Term-No school hired the polar opposite as their head coach quite like NC State. Chick Amato was brash and cocky while Tom O'Brien is quiet and reserve. Amato is a defensive coach and O'Brien cut his teeth on the offensive side of the ball. Amato let the players run roughshod through the community but O'Brien will instill discipline. X and O wise O'Brien is superior. If this staff can recruit close to what Amato did then they will be around a while.
Long term-I think NC State people care about football. I think they have the facilities in place and I think they can win at a much higher level than they are right now. The Wolfpack fans are probably more into football than any in the state of North Carolina and O'Brien may be able to capitalize on that.

Virginia
Short Term-As most of you know I am not an Al Groh fan. I saw through him a long time ago. I was always down on Amato and Groh and Groh may soon follow Amato out of the head coaching business. I do not think this program is close to where the expectations where and I am not sure they will be any better anytime soon.
Long term-The University does have a good academic reputation and that helps recruiting. Geography is an advantage for Virginia in terms of recruiting. The facilities are good but I am not sure this is a program that can climb as high as NC State and North Carolina.

Virginia Tech
Short Term-The Hokies should be very good again this year. The program is stable and they return a lot of starters. Beamer has a good staff in place and the atmosphere should be special in Blacksburg this fall.
Long term-At one time I thought Beamer was Virginia Tech football but I think they can maintain this level even after he is gone. The facilities have improved so much and stability in the program is there. I believe Bud Foster is a guy that could take the program over and continue their recent success.

Wake Forest
Short Term-As long as Jim Grobe is around Wake Forest will be a factor in almost every game they play. I think the Deacons could have a shot to win the ACC in almost any year he remains at Wake Forest. They lose a lot off of last year's squad but there is a program in place.
Long term-This program returns back to the doldrums as soon as Grobe leaves. it is just too difficult to win here.

I am not sure about the short-term rankings quite yet but I would rank long-term expectations and program potential like this:
1. Miami
2. Florida State
T3. Virginia Tech
T3. Clemson
5. North Carolina
T6. Georgia Tech
T6. NC State
8. Virginia
T9. Maryland
T9. Boston College
11. Wake Forest
12. Duke

College Baseball Changes
The NCAA has made several major changes to college baseball beginning next season. Tuesday Jack Leggett will speak to the press concerning the new changes. Among the new legislation is:
*No longer will a baseball player be allowed to transfer from one division I school to another without having to sit out a year.
*Schools will be penalized for running off players or encouraging players to leave their program.
*Teams will be restricted to 35 players.
*Schools can be penalized practice times and games will be cut if they fall below the 900 APR mark.

These new rules have polarized the college baseball industry. Those that like it really like it and those that are opposed are adamantly opposed. One source told me that South Carolina is one of the schools that will have to change its ways in baseball under the new rules. The Gamecocks have over signed a bunch in the past and often players have to find new schools after a stint in Columbia. I will be interested to hear Leggett's comments tomorrow.

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