Wednesday September 19, 2007

Must Win

Must Win
College football fans live and die each week with this week’s game so Clemson’s trip to Raleigh gives us the latest version of a “must win” situation.

I can still see a scenario where Clemson could lose Saturday and still win the ACC and have a terrific season. However, that scenario is much less likely than the one where a loss this weekend could lead to an average season.

I ask, ‘Can Clemson lose Saturday and get this program to where it needs to be?” I would say it would be an uphill battle with a loss Saturday. I do remember last season when Clemson lost its first road game when Boston College took advantage of Tiger mistakes. I also remember the Tigers getting on a roll after the loss and eventually ascended to a top-10 ranking. Granted Clemson did not finish well but the point is they did rebound immediately after the loss to Boston College.

I understand the thought that it is good to lose early as opposed to losing late but I would compare the opposite situation and give a golf analogy to support the point. We have all played in the Captain Choice tournaments where each member can buy a mulligan. Usually you don’t want to use your mulligan so early in the round and the longer you can save it the better.

Some Clemson fans could never forgive the Tigers for any loss but it helps to save your mulligan for an opponent like Virginia Tech or what could be a highly ranked Boston College team in November.

Every team has a slip up but some are so talented they can overcome it by winning with their “C” game. There are very few examples of a team hitting on all cylinders for an entire season. So, can Clemson play its “C” game and still win in Raleigh? That answer depends on NC State as much as it does anything else. If NC State can all of the sudden get its act in order and play its “A” game then Clemson cannot win under that scenario. Simply stated, Clemson cannot play bad and beat NC State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College or South Carolina.

Clemson is better than NC State but not that much better so I believe execution becomes the key and there is no one that can tell you who will execute better on any Saturday.

On paper there are some match ups that favor the Tigers. NC State has been awful against the run this season. The Wolfpack have allowed 216 yards per game on the ground which is among the worst in the country. Also consider they have lost their first and second-team defensive tackles and will now play a true freshman and a former walk-on at one defensive tackle. I believe James Davis could have a chance to repeat his performance the last time he was in Carter-Finley Stadium when he broke NCSU’s back before he broke his wrist.

Clemson could also take advantage of State’s defense if the running game is working by utilizing the play-action passing game. Cullen Harper has looked fantastic so far and the Tigers are no longer one-dimensional.

However there are pitfalls to look for this weekend. Harper has been terrific but this will be his first start on the road and who knows how he will react to adversity for the first time.

I also think the Wolfpack skill players on offense are talented and are a concern. Andre Brown and Jamelle Eugene are among the best backs in the ACC but the Tigers dodged a bullet when Toney Baker went down for the season with a knee surgery. Remember last season when Baker slammed the Tigers for 174 yards on 34 carries?

John Dunlap and Darrell Blackman are two very talented and experienced wide receivers but again the Tigers will benefit because All-ACC tight end Anthony Hill is out for the season.

The key to State’s offense will be Harrison Beck. The Nebraska transfer has looked good at times this season at quarterback and he has a very good arm but he has turned the ball over too many times and the State is 1-2 because of it.

Questions abound. I don’t know how Clemson will react to the first road game of the season. I am not sure what the game plans on either side of the ball will look like for either team. I have questions about each team at certain areas but I also think Clemson is the better team. The Tigers are more talented than NC State and I think they should be able to take care of business this Saturday.

What I am pretty sure of is the idea that Clemson can make it easier on itself by coming out early and take care of business. I can name many games though, especially on the road, where Clemson has made foolish mistakes and let the less talented opponent hang around. Several times we have seen the Tigers give the opponent reasons to get excited and reasons for a spurt of confidence.

Let me write the script and I would have Clemson jumping on NC State early to take the crowd out of the game. This would also put more doubt in the minds of a team that has lost nine of its last ten games.

Let a State fan write the script and they would have the Wolfpack hitting on a big play or get an early turnover to get the crowd into the game. They could see Beck making better decisions and picking the zone defense apart. They would probably write a close game that State could get better as the game goes on and they would write a close State victory.

We will learn a lot about this team with this big road game but I think coaching is a huge part of this game. If the Tiger staff has the team ready to play and the schemes are sound then Clemson should win this game.

I guess this is just another in the long line of “must win” games. Win or lose a trip to Atlanta looms next week and I am sure it will be another “must win” deal.

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