Wednesday August 29, 2007

FSU Offense vs Clemson Defense

FSU Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Florida State will enter the game with a new offensive coordinator and a renewed enthusiasm on offense. Jimbo Fisher is credited with turning around Jamarcus Russell at LSU and now he will attempt to do the same with the Seminole offense. He will have his hands full as the sagging numbers in Tallahassee reveal an interesting story.

FSU averaged 384 yards per game through the air in 2000 but have averaged 233, 282, 210, 269, 211 and 266 yards passing in each of the last six seasons.

The Seminoles averaged 548 yards per game in 1993 and 549 yards of total offense in 2000. The last six years FSU has averaged over 400 yards per game once.

Also consider the Noles have a new wide receiver coach in Lawrence Dawsey, running backs coach in Dexter Carter and offensive line coach in Rick Trickett. John Lilly, the tight ends coach is the only returning coach on the offensive side of the ball.

What Fisher is charged to do is bring back an identity to the Seminole offense. When Bobby Bowden first arrived at FSU he was known as a riverboat gambler. The Seminoles were a high-flying circus act with Frisbee catching dogs at wide receiver. FSU would put up 50 on you in a hurry. Aside from Duke, FSU has put up more than 50 points on the opponent twice in their last 70 games. In 1993 the Noles averaged 43.2 points per game but the last three seasons they have averaged more than two touchdowns per game less.

Florida State has had issues on offense besides coaching though. The offensive lines have not been very good in recent years and injuries have also hampered their progress up front.

The quarterback play has suffered since Mark Richt left to go to Georgia. Richt coached two Heisman Trophy winners at the position in Charlie Ward and Chris Weinke but the Noles have been average at the position since Chris Rix and Drew Weatherford took over.

Early in camp Fisher was not pleased with Weatherford or his back up Xavier Lee and he even considered the third-team signal caller Christian Ponder. However, Weatherford’s experience was the difference in the fall camp and the junior will start Monday night.

In the past two seasons FSU has abandoned the running game. Despite having NFL backs like Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker the Noles staff did not commit to the run game and averaged less than 100 yards per game on the ground. Antoine Smith has been told he will be a bigger part of the offense and I can’t see a scenario where FSU can beat Clemson unless Smith plays extremely well.

The wide receiver corps has been very average in recent years. This group suffered from the drops and many did not live up to their billing. New wide out coach Lawrence Dawsey hopes he can energize the crew. There is some talent here but not as much as in years past.

In summary, FSU has suffered from a personnel standpoint and a scheme standpoint in recent years on offense. They think they have the scheme fixed and we will see Monday. I am not sure the personnel will be fixed by Monday night though.

Clemson has recruited more speed on defense and the Tigers now have the kind of players that belong on the same field as the Seminoles. Clemson may not be as deep as FSU in some areas but the Tiger staff has upgraded its talent level to the point where Florida State is not the superior team.

The Tiger defensive front is deeper and more talented than it was in the mid 1990s but depth may be an issue if injuries occur between now and Monday night. I think Clemson’s front four are as good as or better than FSU. The Tigers do not have a difference maker at linebacker like Geno Hayes but the starting group is as good as the Noles. The Seminoles have an edge at safety but Clemson has closed the gap with the FSU secondary.

I believe Clemson’s offense is better than FSU’s offense so I think this defense has less of a challenge than FSU does. The Tigers will have to control the line of scrimmage Monday and if they do then FSU is in trouble. The Seminoles ran the ball effectively in the second half of last year’s game but it was mostly fullback Joe Surratt, who will be out with an injury Monday night.

In my opinion Weatherford cannot come into Death Valley and win unless FSU brings a much improved running game to town. However, Florida State has won on Labor Day the last two years with little offense against arch-rival Miami. Last year the Seminoles had nine first downs and one yard rushing and beat the Canes.

Home Field Advantage
In 2006 only three teams in the ACC had a winning record away from home (Wake Forest 6-1 and Virginia Tech and Florida State 3-2). The Seminoles were 2-2 on the road but won their bowl game on a neutral field against UCLA.

Only three teams had losing record at home (NCSU 3-4, North Carolina 2-5 and Duke 0-7).

Short Turn Around
I know the fans are not concerned but the Clemson staff is concerned about a short turnaround time for the Louisiana-Monroe game. Two assistants have pointed out to me the Florida State-Troy game last year where the Noles had to rally late in the fourth quarter to beat Troy. There are always concerns about playing the week after a big rivalry game but the Tigers will practice Tuesday-Thursday and have to get ready again in the heat of a 1:00 pm kickoff in Death Valley.
One Clemson assistant told me today that the Tigers will be into their third week of the season before they get into the routine of a usual game week.

Harper’s Show
According to multiple sources, Cullen Harper will be the starting quarterback Monday and many don’t believe Willy Korn will play many snaps if any against FSU. The plan might be to work Korn more as the season progresses but I don’t plan on seeing the freshman Labor Day.

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