Thursday November 19, 2009

Virginia Prediction by Rev O

B-E-L-I-E-V-E !! The Tigers do so now it's time for you to believe too. After a thrashing of NC State I don't see how you could think otherwise. The fate of the Tigers could well be decided before kickoff (and I think it will be decided) since UNC plays BC at noon. The Tigers don't play until 3:30 p.m. As an added bonus (free of charge of course), I have included a very abbreviated prediction for the UNC vs BC game below. The noon game, however, will make no difference in the final outcome of the Atlantic division. The match up with UVA favors the Tigers more so than it did with NC State so it will not matter who wins the noon game. UVA has a young team. 29 Cavaliers have made their debut this year including 14 true freshman. 39% of the Cavaliers seeing playing time this year have been first timers. The Clemson offense is in high gear and the defense remains solid and that's not a good thing for a Virginia offense that has given up 32 sacks this year and now faces the team with the most sacks in the ACC. It will be the last home game of the year and that means Senior Day so emotions will be running high. I can only imagine the gratitude CJ Spiller will get when he is introduced. Wish I could be there. DaQuan Bowers is listed as questionable for the game as is Thomas Austin. Austin suffered a mid-foot sprain in the 4th quarter of the NC State game and didn't play the rest of the game but I've got a feeling that he will at least start the game. He works too hard not to start plus he is the only starting senior, not to mention the leader, on the offensive line. My guess is that Bowers and Austin will be used sparingly unless really needed. By the statistics, this should be an easy stepping stone to the ACC Championship game but I'm sure Virginia would love to leave Death Valley with an upset. They have had a rough year losing their first 3 games (one to William & Mary of the FBS) then going on a 3 game win streak to include a win over a good UNC team but have been on a slide losing their last four in a row. The last being a tough loss to BC when they had a chance to win at the end. With Clemson and VT left on their schedule, Al Groh's job may depend on winning both remaining games and since Clemson is up next, well, they'll come to town ready to play but I think the Tiger defense will overwhelm the Virginia offense.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 2nd in the ACC. UVA Scoring Defense is 6th in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 7th in the ACC. UVA Total Defense is 7th in the ACC.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. UVA Rushing Defense is 10th in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 7th in the ACC. UVA Pass Defense is 4th in the ACC.

UVA plays a pro-style 3-4 defense which Clemson has not seen this year. Mason Cloy will step in for Austin if he can't go so I'm not too concerned. Cloy is a good backup. Clemson has some depth on the offensive line this year and injuries have been kept to a minimum. We'll need Austin more for the USC game next week. CJ Spiller was named the ACC's offensive back of the week for the second straight week after grinding out 158 all-purpose yards against NC State. He became the first player in Clemson history to throw a TD pass, rush for a score and catch a TD pass in the same game. He continues to be the workhorse for this team and Dabo has done a great job of using his skills. The Clemson offense has had at least 200 yds passing and rushing in the last two games and they have had three consecutive rushing games of at least 240 yds. Gee, I wonder what the game plan is against the rushing defense of UVA which ranks 10th in the ACC. Kyle Parker continues to improve and had a great game against NC State completing 12 of 18 passes and two TDs. Andre Ellington did well giving Spiller a rest every now and then and Jamie Harper had a great 69 yd scamper into the end zone giving him the longest run from scrimmage since CJ broke open an 83 yd run against Auburn in the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl. This offense is peaking and should do well against Virginia on the ground. The offensive line deserves a lot of credit for the recent success to include protecting Parker in the pocket. If a bright spot can be found with UVA, it's in their pass defense where they are ranked 4th in the ACC. The Virginia defense will be the biggest that Clemson has faced this year led by 6' 7" 270 lb Matt Conrath at DE. Nick Jenkins, their nose tackle, is 6' 3" and 285 lbs. They also have a tall defensive backfield and big linebackers. The Tiger run game should be able to open the defense up so the passing game can be an effective weapon. Clemson's tight ends should continue to play an important part of the passing game. Michael Palmer has 27 receptions for the year which is the most by a tight end since 1971. Having been a tight end, I could never figure out why offenses did not use their tight ends more often in the passing game.

When UVA has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

UVA Scoring Offense is 12th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 3rd in the ACC.
UVA Total Offense is 12th in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
UVA Rushing Offense is 11th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 6th in the ACC.
UVA Passing Offense is 10th in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 2nd in the ACC.

As stated above, I think the Clemson defense will overwhelm the Virginia offense. The Tigers lead the ACC in sacks with 26. The Virginia offense is at or near the bottom of the ACC in all meaningful offensive statistics. The speed of the Clemson defense will show. UVA could not handle the speed of the Miami defense two weeks ago and subsequently loss to the Hurricanes 52-17. I don't see anything changing here. The Cavalier offense is led by Jameel Sewell and sometimes Marc Verica will come in but look for Sewell to take the snaps in this game. He's the better scrambler. UVA ranks second in the ACC with Red Zone efficiency (14th nationally) but I don't know how often they will get that close to work on this statistic. Sewell had to throw the ball a lot last week (21-41-1) because of BC's good rush defense so I expect this will be the case this week too. Clemson does a decent job of stopping the run and with UVA's poor rushing offense (93.6 yds/gm) they are going to have to go to the air and that bodes well for the # 2 ACC pass defense of the Tigers. The last couple of weeks Kevin Steele has done a good job filling the hole that DaQuan Bowers left when he went down with a knee injury. If Bowers is 100% and able to play this will be a plus but the pressure will still be there with Goodman and Branch filling in at DE. Steele wasn't happy with the fact that eventhough the Clemson defense put a lot of pressure on NCSU, they were unable to wrap him up for more sacks. I think UVA is going to see how Steele fixed this problem. I also think we can expect to see a couple interceptions due to Sewell having to scramble in the pocket. Then again if he is scrambling then I guess there is no pocket.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Sure, the field goals and more so, the extra points have been an issue lately but that will not determine this game. And not kicking to Spiller only hurt NC State by giving Clemson excellent field position all game long. Will Virginia do the same? Virginia is last in kickoff returns and Clemson still leads the ACC in kickoff coverage so don't look for Virginia to do much here.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

Senior Day and a chance to secure a trip to the ACC Championship game while playing at home!! How much better could it get? Death Valley will be rocking and the Seniors will be playing with emotion. I just hope they can contain their emotion a little so they can concentrate on their execution.

Prediction: UVA is 1-5-1 against ranked Clemson teams at Memorial Stadium. The experts say Clemson by 20.5 pts. Now that's respect, finally!! I added 6 pts to the experts prediction last week and did well. This week I'll add 8 pts to the experts point spread and say Clemson by 28 pts.

Clemson 38 UVA 10

Bonus Prediction: Boston College doesn't play well against ACC teams with good defenses while UNC does just the opposite and plays well against good defenses. BC has a good defense especially against the run. Look for UNC to stop the BC rushing offense with their ACC leading defense and escape the Boston area with a slight upset. The experts are saying BC by a field goal. I say just the opposite.

UNC 17 BC 14

Go Tigers!! See you in Tampa!

Rev O