Friday November 13, 2009

NCSU Prediction by Rev O

Clemson still controls its destiny after a big win last week against the Noles but this matchup against the Wolfpack should be an interesting one. There are still plenty of nay sayers out there waiting for Clemson to choke as they have in the past but this is a different Clemson team. As I have said before, Dabo has them believing they can win every game. That mind set is important when developing a championship mentality. This game could well come down to field position based on special teams play (if they kick to CJ) as well as turnovers. NC State is last in the league in turnover margin. Statistically, the NC State defense matches up well with the Clemson offense and the same can be said with the NC State offense against the Clemson defense but the weak link here might be the NC State defensive backfield and I'll discuss that more below in the head to head matchups. Clemson has won the last 5 in a row. NC State will have to execute very well if they want to upset the Tigers. Da'Quan Bowers will probably not play while he is still nursing a knee injury so look for a return in the UVa game for him. Kevin Alexander did a good job filling in for Bowers against FSU so I think we can still put pressure on State's Russell Wilson. The rest of the walking wounded from the FSU game are set to play in this game as far as I know so that's a good thing. A Clemson win followed by a BC loss to UVa this weekend will wrap up an invite for Clemson to the ACC Championship game on Dec 5th so cheer for the Wahoos this weekend.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Slight edge to Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 4th in the ACC. NCSU Scoring Defense is 10th in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 8th in the ACC. NCSU Total Defense is 7th in the ACC.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. NCSU Rushing Defense is 3rd in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 7th in the ACC. NCSU Pass Defense is 8th in the ACC.

Clemson will be facing a better defense than they saw last week against FSU. The NC State pass defense might be the weak link that Clemson is looking for. NC State starts three sophmores at linebacker and three of the four starting defensive backs are freshman. This should allow Clemson to throw the ball thus allowing the run to work well. The Clemson offense has been on a roll in the past month averaging over 41 pts/game. During this period Kyle Parker has completed over 61% of his passes. The receivers have come around and are doing a good job and Jacoby Ford continues to lead this group. Xavier Dye has also turned the corner and has become a formidable receiver after almost giving up on the Tigers after the GT game. The offensive line has been doing a good job of protecting Parker allowing seven sacks in the last four games but four of those came during the Miami game so three sacks over the past three games is good. Since the lost to MD this team has rededicated itself to winning and their efforts have shown this. Oh yea, I forgot about Mr. Spiller!! He has been on a mission in the last two ACC games racking up over 600 total yards and putting him in the top 5 in the way of Heisman voting in some polls. He, too, is a little banged up but he knows what is at stake and says it's not something that he can't handle. Talk about durability. This kid is amazing and besides some Heisman interest, he is getting further recognition by being named one of the ten semi-finalist for the Doak Walker award given to the top RB in the country. You can bet he'll get his fair share of touches during this game. Look for the dynamic duo of Spiller and Ford to be involved in this game just like the others.

When NCSU has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

NCSU Scoring Offense is 2nd in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
NCSU Total Offense is 3rd in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
NCSU Rushing Offense is 7th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 6th in the ACC.
NCSU Passing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 2nd in the ACC.

The NC State offense is better when Russell Wilson is throwing the ball but they do have an average rush offense led by Toney Baker who is averaging just over five yards a carry. They also throw to their RBs so Clemson will need to pay attention to this. They score a third of their points in the first quarter so don't get too concerned if they jump out to a lead first. The Tigers have handled this situation well so far this year and I expect they will again. Clemson's defense has been stellar this year making the plays when they need to be made. The pass defense is only giving up 160 yds/game but the real statistic that sticks out is Clemson leads the ACC and the nation in interceptions. They not only lead the ACC but the 2nd place finisher (FSU) is 8 interceptions back. This is a huge plus. DeAndre McDaniel leads the group with 8 picks which ranks tops in the nation with Rahim Moore of UCLA. They also lead the ACC in sacks with 24 (2.64 per game). They always say that to win games you need a good defense and Clemson has proven this theory this year. NC State is last in the league in turnovers as already mentioned so the Clemson defense should have opportunities to add to their resume. I would feel a lot better if Bowers was healthy but Kevin Alexander should do well.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Hey, no doubt about it, Clemson has an advantage here. Clemson still leads the ACC in kickoff returns and NC State is last in the ACC in kickoff coverage. Also Clemson is # 2 in punt returns while NC State is 10th in punting. I don't see them kicking to Spiller on kickoffs or punts but if they do....!!

Intangibles: Advantage: NCSU

They are playing in Raleigh. NC State will come out jacked up ready for an upset and the crowd will be loud. State have nothing to lose. Clemson will need to keep their composure and overcome this.

Prediction: The experts say Clemson by 8 pts. Spiller came back this year to win an ACC Championship. He's made a believer out of me. Now it's time for you to believe!! The experts said Clemson by 8.5 for FSU and the spread ended up being 16 pts. I'll take the 8 points and raise it another 6 points.

Clemson 34 NCSU 20

Go Tigers!!

Rev O