Friday October 23, 2009

Miami Prediction by Rev O

The sulking is over and the Tigers (2-2 in ACC play) are back on track in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. They own their own destiny because MD (1-2 in ACC play) will lose at least 1 more ACC game if not all 5 remaining ACC games. Clemson has to continue to ride the wave of success from the WF game. They also need to not get over confident!! Miami will make them pay if they do. Finally I watched a game that was fun to watch. Why? Because it wasn't even close from the beginning. I like those kind of games. Clemson scares me when they play close games because they lose close games. Good thing I was wrong about the WF game being a close game but here we go again. Will the Miami game be a close one? You'll have to read on to find the answer to that question. Miami comes in ranked # 10 in the first official BCS poll with a 5-1 record. So what has Miami done this season to earn such a respectable ranking besides going 5-1 so far? They got crushed by VT and squeaked by a Sam Bradfordless Oklahoma team 21-20. Sure they beat FSU but that's not saying much since FSU is 0-3 in ACC play. OK, I'll give them a little respect. They did beat a good GT team at home. I'm just not so sure they rate a # 10 BCS ranking. Based on their remaining schedule, Clemson might be the only team left on their schedule that can prevent them from ending up in the top 5 at the end of the season. The Tigers owned Riley Skinner and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons last Saturday. Saying they owned WF might be a little bit of an understatement. That was one of the best displays of an offense and defense working in harmony at the same time. It made the win just look so easy. Now it's time to come off the "high" and get back down to business. Can the unranked Tigers, who pulled off a 24-17 overtime upset of the then-No. 11 Hurricanes in in their last trip to Miami in 2004, do it again? One thing I do know - this will be a game of defensive speed for both teams!!

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Miami

Clemson Scoring Offense is 8th in the ACC. Miami Scoring Defense is 6th in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 9th in the ACC. Miami Total Defense is 4th in the ACC.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 4th in the ACC. Miami Rushing Defense is 7th in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 8th in the ACC. Miami Pass Defense is 5th in the ACC.

The Miami defense is a very basic 4-3 with no frills. Nothing really pops out at me. They play man to man coverage most of the time. They don't have any superstars but play well as a team on defense. They have been giving up an average of 20 pts/game. They have a little better pass defense than WF and probably the best pass defense that we have played against to date but it's not an overwhelming kind of defense in either the pass or run. Clemson broke open their rushing offense against WF and will need to continue this effort against Miami if they want to have a chance to win. I'm still not sold on the Clemson offense therefore the edge to Miami here. If Clemson has to go one dimensional with their passing game then it could be lights out early. Miami's rush defense is not as good as WF's and the confidence gained last week should help the Clemson offense this week. Look for Dabo to keep the tight ends involved in the passing game. This really helped to open up the run game last week. Kudos to David Hood for bringing out the TE factor in his prediction of the WF game. Spiller had a good solid game last week putting up some big numbers on the ground but that's what he can do when the line blocks well for him. He rushed 9 times and averaged 11.8 yds/rush. The offense was balanced against WF because of the offensive line play. This allowed the Tigers to be successful in the passing game. Look for them to try and do this again against Miami.

When Miami has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

Miami Scoring Offense is 7th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
Miami Total Offense is 6th in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
Miami Rushing Offense is 8th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 4th in the ACC.
Miami Passing Offense is 5th in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 2nd in the ACC.

Clemson's defense is second only to North Carolina in the ACC but this is a little misleading in the category of scoring defense. The Tiger offense and special teams have given up 36 pts (6 TDs). If you take this into account the Tiger defense is only giving up 11.3 pts/game and that ranks only behind Florida, Penn State and Oklahoma in points allowed per game. They dominate the passing game ranking 7th in the nation in pass and 11th in total defense. I may not be sure of the Tiger offense but the Tiger defense is aggressive and for real. And now that Bowers has had a week to adjust to his dreadlocks being shaved off they should be even better!! Miami runs a pro-style offense under the leadership of offensive coodinator Mark Whipple who has recent experience coaching in the pros. The tight ends are also used so the Tiger defense has their work cut out for them. At 6' 4" and 190 lbs, Jacory Harris is not a QB who runs the ball very much but he remains cool under pressure so the Tiger defense needs to contain him and harass him like they did Riley Skinner last Saturday. Although Central Florida sacked Harris six times last week, he still completed 77 percent of his passes for 293 yards and a touchdown in Miami’s 27-7 win. The Tigers managed 5 sacks last week and will need to get more this week. Several of the Tiger sacks against WF can be attributed to good coverage downfield. On more than one occasion, Skinner had time to throw but no one was open. The top Miami receiver only averages 48.8 yds/game and they have 4 others that average between 28 and 47 yds/game so he doesn't have a favorite but they are all quality receivers. They are well balanced in this area. Miami has recorded 26 completions of 20 yards or more, including 11 of 30 plus yards. The defenders will need to play their man-to-man coverage close to defend against the underneath pass but be leary of the big gainer while the linebackers stay their ground and not get sucked in on the play action pass. And don't forget about the screen. Miami does this well too. The Tiger defense is probably one of the few defenses in the ACC (along with VT) that can handle Miami's passing game. This is because of speed. The Miami offensive line is huge with 6' 7" and 314 plus pounds on the left side (guard and tackle) and a 6' 7" 307 lb tackle on the right side. Although this might be a little intimidating, they appear to be only one deep. The Tiger defense should be able to wear them down with their speed and depth. Sapp and Bowers speed should become apparent as the game progresses. If they play like they did last week, the Tigers have a good chance of an upset.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson is 8th in the nation in kickoff return yardage while Miami is 47th in defending kickoff returns. Clemson is 7th in punt return yardage while Miami is and 107th in punt return defense. This is a big mismatch. This could cause field position to play a large part of the game. I hope to see Spiller and Ford break another one.

Intangibles: Advantage: Even

Land Shark Stadium is intimidating in name only. Miami is not taking the Tigers lightly. There is plenty being written and talked about in southern Florida about how underrated the Tigers really are.

Prediction: The experts say Miami by 4.5 to 5.5 pts. That is down from 6.5 pts at the beginning of the week. I thought TCU was overrated and I still think they are. The same goes for Miami. I don't think either team is a top ten team. If they are then Clemson is not far behind and based on the spread, they aren't far behind. The USA Today Weekend Forecast says Miami 28 Clemson 20. They are close but they have the teams backwards. Once again, I'm being optimistic and going against what the experts say but then again, you probably expected this. I'm downgrading the Hurricanes to a tropical depression!!

Clemson 27 Miami 21

Go Tigers!!

Rev O