Thursday October 01, 2009

Maryland Prediction by Rev O

Frog gigging last week, turtle hunting this week. Well, the gigging didn't go as well as expected and a few got away. Jackson missed on an easy field goal and that turned out to be the key to a TCU win. This week the Maryland theme, as they want you to believe, is "fear the turtle". The only problem is the turtle has remained in it's shell leaving not much to fear. While Ralph "Friggin" Friedgen has been busy losing 100 lbs, his turtles have been busy losing games. Time for the Tigers to take a little frustration out on the hapless turtles in College Park. I'll be there along with my small congregation of faithful followers. The weather is calling for a 30% to 40% chance of passing showers but the Tigers have gotten used to playing in the rain so they should be getting good at it by now. For me, I'm still drying out from last weekend. I think the weather will hold out and we'll see some dry conditions but don't quote me on that. I'm not trying to predict the weather, just the game. If recent history repeats itself, the Tigers are assured a win in College Park. The last 4 games have seen the Terps win in Clemson while the Tigers have won in College Park. The Tigers are huge early favorites in this game and that means a lot considering the last 4 out of 5 games were decided by a total of 11points. The Terps are in for a world of hurt,. They are 1-3 with the lone win coming in overtime against James Madison of the FCS (formerlly Div II). They got crushed by Calyfornia (as Arnold says) and Rutgers and lost to MTSU which Clemson crushed 37-14. I just don't see how Maryland can win this game. They just don't have the talent. They only return 5 starter on offense and only 4 on defense. A Clemson loss here and it will be a big setback for Dabo and the boys.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 9th in the ACC. MD Scoring Defense is 12 in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 9th in the ACC. MD Total Defense is 12th in the ACC.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 4th in the ACC. MD Rushing Defense is 12th in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 9th in the ACC. MD Pass Defense is 9th in the ACC.

Now we can start to get a feel for how teams are doing within the ACC with respect to stats. MD is last in the league in three of the four major defensive categories. They allow 38.2 points per game, 411 total yards per game and 201 rushing yards per game which is last in all three categories. Maryland is 9th in the ACC in pass defense allowing 210 yards per contest. Clemson leads MD in all head to head categories above except Passing Offense vs Pass Defense. That's a little misleading when you look at who MD has played. You would think they would be a little higher on the list based on who they have played. If Clemson passes against MD, I think they will do OK. Not too concerned with this category. Parker hasn't done a very good job in completing passes (he is last in the ACC in Pass Efficiency) but he's been careful to not turn the ball over so that's a positive. The receivers need to start doing better if Clemson is going to contend for the Division title. Clemson is # 4 in the league in rushing. That says something about the offensive line although DT Chris Hairston did not play due to his injured knee but he looks probably for the MD game and that will be good. I think the O-line has done better than most expected. I think if Clemson jumps out to a little lead we might see Jamie Harper and Andre Ellington carry the ball a little more this game giving CJ some time to rest his foot (toe) although he'll have a bye week after this game to further rest it. Dabo has said that he wants to get Andre Ellington in the game more. He has shown some good speed and leads the team with a 6.6 yd/carry average. The Clemson offense will need to key on the MD linebackers. Alex Wujciak and Adrian Moten lead the ACC in tackles at the # 1 and # 3 spot respectively. This should be a good game for Clemson to work on their running game and figure out how to get the ball in the endzone. They continue to stall out down close to the goal line. This should be good practice for the O-line to work as a team and control the line of scrimmage especially when they get close to the goal line.

When MD has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

MD Scoring Offense is 10th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 4th in the ACC.
MD Total Offense is 8th in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 4th in the ACC.
MD Rushing Offense is 9th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 7th in the ACC.
MD Passing Offense is 6th in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 3rd in the ACC.

Clemson's defense continues to do well. MD will have a tough time controlling these guys. Sapp and Bowers are due some sacks and the defensive backfield is due some more interceptions. Clemson leads the ACC in interceptions with 8. Chris Turner has been averaging 242.8 passing yds per game and his favorite target is Torrey Smith who leads the ACC in receiving yards per game (96.5 yds) and averages an incredible 21.4 yds per catch. He also plays on Special Teams and does well there. Smith is the only player in the NCAA FBS to post at least 225 all-purpose yards in each of the first four games this season. In fact, only one other player - C.J. Spiller (Clemson) - has done it three times so this says a lot about Smith. Smith is averaging 244 all purpose yds per game and is # 2 in the NCAA FBS. Da'Rel Scott is back from his All ACC campaign of last year and is 4th in the ACC in rushing averaging 5.7 yds a carry. That's actually pretty good considering the team he is playing for but look at the defenses he has faced. Clemson will need to keep these guys (especially Smith) in check and I think they will. MD has not played against a good defense as of yet this season so I think it will be an eye opener for the turtles. MD is last in the ACC in sacks allowed (14) so watching Sapp and Bowers pressuring Turner at QB should be fun to watch if you're a Tiger fan.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson leads the ACC in Kickoff Coverage and is # 2 in Kickoff and Punt Returns. I don't think we'll have to worry too much on special teams winning the game for us but it would still be nice seeing Spiller break another long return.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson has won at MD the last 2 times they have played there.

Prediction: The bookies have Clemson by 13.5 pts. Clemson is much better than MD. I see a blowout coming!!

Clemson 35 MD 3

Go Tigers!!

Rev O