Friday November 06, 2009

FSU Prediction by Rev O

If Clemson wants to get to the Championship game without worrying about what others do then they need to win this game as well as their next 2 ACC games. Yes we've heard this before. Boston College and Clemson are 3-2 in ACC play with FSU on their heels at 2-3. BC has a good chance of winning the rest of their games and a slip up by Clemson could allow BC to go to Tampa. This game has now become the biggest game this year. On paper this game is a blowout and that's because of the mismatch between the Clemson offense and the FSU defense. If it were not for the last quarter comebacks by FSU in their last two games FSU would be 0-5 in ACC play but Christian Ponder has rallied his Noles to wins in both of those games. But remember, those come from behind wins were against teams that have a combined 1-7 ACC record. This game is big and should be the last big hurdle to Clemson making it to Tampa on December 5th. Yes, they still have NC State and UVa to play and they have stumbled before. I think this team is different. Dabo has got these guys believing in themselves. Death Valley will be rocking and a new decibel level record could be set. FSU's offense is good but the defense is not the defense of old. They give up too many points and that's their big down fall. I don't see them running well against the Clemson defense and the Clemson pass defense is #1 in the ACC. The odds are in Clemson's favor but will they live up to the challenge? Don't forget, Bobby Bowden is on the other sideline.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 4th in the ACC. FSU Scoring Defense is 11th in the ACC.
Clemson Total Offense is 8th in the ACC. FSU Total Defense is 12th in the ACC.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. FSU Rushing Defense is 12th in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 7th in the ACC. FSU Pass Defense is 12th in the ACC.

FSU is terrible on defense. You can see for yourself in the stats. They give up as many points as their offense scores so it's no wonder they are where they are. They are not only last in the ACC in total defense, they rank 109th in the nation. Certainly not the FSU of past seasons. Their linebacking core has been busy led by Dakota Watson and Kendall Smith. Kendall Smith is 8th in the ACC in tackles averaging 7.1 tackles per game. Clemson's offense has continued to improve as the season has gone on. This is a good match-up for the Clemson offense if you’re a Clemson fan. Clemson has climbed the ranks in rushing offense and now sits at a very respectable 3rd place in the ACC. On paper, the Clemson offense should be able to run and pass the ball at will against this FSU defense. Will they? I hope so. I think so. Expect Spiller to be the workhorse like he was against Miami. He's had 2 weeks to rest his body (minus a couple plays in the CC game). He'll be ready and I think we'll see another Heisman performance from him. Parker has been getting better every game and his rifle of an arm is amazing. I still can't forget how he threaded the winning TD against Miami in OT. The speed on that ball was incredible. Just ask Jacoby Ford about that. The receivers need to have a good game too. I think we'll see a well balanced offense in this game.

When FSU has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

FSU Scoring Offense is 3rd in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 1st in the ACC.
FSU Total Offense is 1st in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 2nd in the ACC.
FSU Rushing Offense is 5th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 5th in the ACC.
FSU Passing Offense is 2nd in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 1st in the ACC.

This will be the interesting part of the game. How will the Clemson defense stand up against a good FSU passing offense? Five FSU receivers have caught 25 or more passes this year led by Bert Reed (42 receptions / 63 yds per game) and Rod Owens (36 receptions / 60 yds per game). Christian Ponder leads the ACC with a 306 yd/game average through the air. WF had a good passing offense and the Clemson defense shut that down allowing a measly 97 yds through the air. Can they do it again and this time without the beast. I'm talking about Da'Quan Bowers. He's out with a bad knee. Can Andre Branch and Malliciah Goodman step in and put the pressure on Ponder. Clemson leads the ACC in sacks with 22 and interceptions with 15. Their 15 interceptions is good enough for # 3 in the nation and DeAndre McDaniel is tied for the lead in the nation with 7 picks. Only Iowa and Texas have more picks than Clemson. If they can pressure Ponder, it could lead to a few more interceptions. The Clemson backfield has been amazing this year.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Hey, no doubt about it, Clemson has done well here. Clemson continues to lead the ACC in kickoff returns and are second in punt return yardage. They are also second in defending the kickoff. FSU does rank 3rd in the ACC behind Clemson in defending the kickoff. Will they test that ranking against Spiller? We'll see.

Intangibles: Advantage: FSU

It's in Clemson but the Bowden factor is at play here. Never under estimate the old man. FSU has come back to win several games this year so Clemson needs to play hard until the end.

Prediction: The experts say Clemson by 8.5 pts. I think that's reasonable but if Clemson plays the way they have been playing it could be a much larger margin. I'll be a little conservative this time.

Clemson 24 FSU 14

Go Tigers!!

Rev O