Friday November 14, 2008

Duke vs CU Prediction by Rev O

The game last weekend started out like it was going to be a good day for the boys in orange but that quickly came to an end when FSU intercepted a Harper pass for an easy TD. Another turnover!! Clemson is last in the league in turnover margins. With the exception of the 2004 season, Clemson has owned Duke. Usually the score has not even been close. Duke has been hot and cold this season with wins over UVa and Vandy and an overtime loss to WF a couple weeks ago followed by a 27-17 loss to NC State. They can play good football when they show up. This is not the Duke of old. They have a good coach in David Cutcliffe who led Ole Miss to five bowl games in six seasons before leaving to be the offensive coordinator at Tennessee and then on to Duke. Dabo will need to coach well to get this win. Clemson dropped a little on the statistics board due to their showing in Tallahassee. Passing Offense dropped to 3rd from 1st and the defense dropped in scoring defense to 6th from 2nd. The surprising stat is that Duke now leads the ACC in Passing Offense!!

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage Clemson
Clemson Scoring Offense is 5th in the ACC. Duke Scoring Defense is 11th in the ACC
Clemson Total Offense is 4th in the ACC. Duke Total Defense is 9th in the ACC
Clemson Rushing Offense is 8th in the ACC. Duke Rushing Defense is 8th in the ACC.
Clemson Passing Offense is 3rd in the ACC. Duke Pass Defense is 9th in the ACC.
CJ Spiller is leading the ACC in all purpose yds. Rushing and receiving is part of this. Look for him to be used again in all areas of the offense. The Duke defense is lead by linebackers Michael Tauiliili and Vincent Rey who rank 1st and 5th respectively in tackles for the ACC. Clemson will need to block these guys if they expect to gain some yards on the inside and look for CJ to exploit the outside. Duke does not boast a good rush defense and NC State was able to gain 159 net yards on the ground against Duke. Clemson does not boast a good rush offense despite the talent in the backfield, but I think they can run against Duke. They have more talent on offense than NC State has. I think the bigger mismatch will be in the passing game. As usual, Clemson will run the ball to keep Duke honest and if needed, Clemson should be able to throw the ball. Duke has 16 sacks on the year (Clemson has only 9 and is last in the league) so, although this is not a strong part of their defense, they are capable of putting pressure on the QB and after last week's 6 sacks given up by the Clemson offense, this could become an issue again although the FSU defense is much faster than the Duke defense. Korn appears to be still suffering from the affects of his injured shoulder so look for Harper to play most of the game if not all of it.

When Duke has the ball: Advantage Even
Duke Scoring Offense is 7th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 6th in the ACC
Duke Total Offense is 5th in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 7th in the ACC
Duke Rushing Offense is 10th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 8th in the ACC.
Duke Passing Offense is 1st in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 3rd in the ACC.
Redshirt freshman Russell Wilson threw two touchdowns and matched a season high with 218 yards to lead NC State past Duke last week. On the other hand, Thaddeus Lewis, Duke's QB, completed 37 of 52 passes last week for 317 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. Duke now leads the ACC in Pass Offense. Duke is 3rd in in the ACC in 3rd down conversions at 35.5%. They were successful in 7 of 16 3rd down conversions last week. They have confidence that they can move the ball through the air. But last week they played NC State. Clemson is not NC State and Clemson handled NC State 27-9 earlier in the season at Death Valley. Eron Riley is Duke's go to receiver with 53 receptions this year. Although I call it even because of the stats above, I think Clemson's defense will show up ready to play against a team they know they can dominate. Look for Ricky Sapp to pressure from the outside while the defensive line holds their own inside.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson
Last year CJ Spiller returned a kickoff 93-yards against Duke late in the second quarter. I'm sure Duke remembers. Last week the Wolfpack’s J.C. Neal returned a kickoff 89 yards for a touchdown in the first half. Is Duke vulnerable here? I would say so. They are 9th in the league. The Spiller factor at work again if they choose to kick to him but don't forget about Jacoby.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson
Duke is prone to giving up long plays. Clemson did it last year to Duke a couple times and NC State did it last week. Clemson is fighting for survival. The game is in the Valley. The Rock is at the top of the hill. It's Homecoming!!

Prediction:
The bookies have Clemson as 10.5 pt favorites. They're close but take Clemson.

Clemson 34 Duke 21

Go Tigers!!

Rev O