Thursday September 24, 2009

TCU vs Clemson Prediction by Rev O

OK Tiger fans, time to go frog gigging this weekend!! I've been frog gigging before and it was a social event just like this weekend is going to be. I'll be in the stands for this one and socializing in the parking lots!! The Tigers are favored to win this game according to the experts and as you all know I'm no expert but I try anyhow. Is TCU overrated? Some apparantly think so. With respect to Clemson, the Tigers have gained no respect. Not even in the top 40 as far as the USA TODAY Coaches poll shows. I'm thinking it's time to gain some respect but for that to happen the Tigers will need to play at the top of their game. TCU has an excellent defense but the Tigers do also. Spiller has been nursing a turf toe but says he'll be ready. Chris Hairston has a sprained MCL in his left knee. Will he play? We hope he's well enough to play. The defense will need to contain DE Jerry Hughes. This game is going to won by ball control and who makes the least number of mistakes. Special teams could play an important role by gaining good field advantage. This should be a good game, win or lose. I apologize to UVA in advance but TCU has played two patsy teams and neither win was that inpressive. They have not been tested this year. They beat UVA 30-14 and Texas State 56-21 but Texas State was only down by 14 until the 4th Qtr. This tells me that Clemson can win this game if they play smart and avoid the penalty killers and turnovers.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Even

Clemson Scoring Offense is 49th in the nation. TCU Scoring Defense is 32nd in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 84th in the nation. TCU Total Defense is 8th in the nation.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 53rd in the nation. TCU Rushing Defense is 3rd in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 93rd in the nation. TCU Pass Defense is 32nd in the nation.

Throw these stats out. Once again TCU hasn't played a competitive team yet. It's still a little early in the season to live by stats. Clemson's offense will need to establish some kind of running game. This will help them control the ball (and the clock). They played well against BC running the ball but will need to get the ball in the endzone. They did poorly in the red zone last week. Run, run, run. Make it work. Control the ball and the line of scrimmage. Throw when you have to, not when you want to. I still keep thinking about the Chad Diehl/Rendrick Taylor combination from the MTSU game. That has got to tire a defense out running it up the gut with 520 plus pounds of flesh coming at you. Let's get back to good ole Clemson smash mouth football. If they have to throw the ball, do a quick 3 step drop and throw it underneath the coverage. This way the TCU defense will not have enough time to get to Parker taking Jerry Hughes out of the equation. Chris Hairston did a great job on controlling Derrick Morgan in the GT game when he was moved from LT to RT in the second half. This is why he needs to play this game. Someone needs to control Hughes and if anyone can it's Hairston.

When TCU has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

TCU Scoring Offense is 10th in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 31st in the nation.
TCU Total Offense is 22nd in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 19th in the nation.
TCU Rushing Offense is 15th in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 68th in the nation.
TCU Passing Offense is 80th in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 9th in the nation.

Clemson's defensive stats are skewd a little. The rushing stat has only 3 games worth of data and GT is the reason why they are 68th right now in rushing defense. GT gained 301 yds on the ground and 82 yds on one play at the beginning of the game. Once the Clemson defense got on track midway through the 2nd quarter they held GT to 91 total yards for the rest of the game. Take this game away and Clemson's rush defense is #10 in the nation. TCU has similar numbers as GT has in rushing offense but look who they played. There is no reason to believe that the Clemson defense is going to lay down against the Horned Frog's offense. They have done well in both pass and run defense and they are only getting better. Sapp and Bowers will put pressure on the QB although TCU has only allowed 2 sack this year. Look for the linbackers and defensive line to stuff the run forcing TCU to pass the ball. TCU was a miserable 1 for 11 in 3rd down conversions against UVA. Our defensive backfield is one of the best combinations in the country. Good defenses win games. We'll need this to win this one.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson's special teams continue to do well on a national level with Spiller and Ford leading the charge. Clemson is # 6 nationally in punt returns and 14th in kickoff returns. Jackson is kicking the ball well.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson is home again and it will be loud. Listen closely and you'll hear me in the stands!!

Prediction: The bookies have Clemson as 2.5 pt favorites. Sagarin says Clemson by 12.05 pts. I say…..

Clemson 16 TCU 10

Go Tigers!!

Rev O