Thursday September 17, 2009

BC vs Clemson Prediction by Rev O

As poor as last week's prediction may have looked to most, two plays made it look that way. Without those two plays the score might have been 27 - 16 (vice my prediction of 24 - 17) and a win for the Tigers. OK, shoulda, coulda, woulda…. Now on to this week. BC has romped in their first two games but then again, they should have. Playing against inferior teams can only make you look bad if you don't dominate the game. BC is not the team of the past. What kind of team are they? Hard to tell. Even their own coach is not sure what he has at this point. Aside from lacking experience at QB, not to mention a true starter, they lack consistency in the coaching department with Tom O'Brien leaving for NC State three years ago and then Jeff Jagodzinski getting fired for interviewing for a head coaching job in the NFL two years ago. They don't have those star players from years past neither. Sure they have talent but just not the same level of talent they used to have. Clemson showed real desire to be a very good team when they came back and scored 27 unanswered points last week against a very good GT team. They proved to themselves that they are a good team and I expect to see them come out with confidence and intensity against BC. Once again Clemson will try and establish the run while the defense plays tough and stops the BC running game. Stats don't usually lie but if you believe the ones below then Clemson would be preparing to get their butts whooped but we all know that's not the case. I don't have too much to go on in the way of stats for this game so here is my best stab:

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 45th in the nation. BC Scoring Defense is 3rd in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 66th in the nation. BC Total Defense is 5th in the nation.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 57th in the nation. BC Rushing Defense is 27th in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 68th in the nation. BC Pass Defense is 6th in the nation.

Throw these stats out. Clemson's offense once again gained confidence last game and continued to play hard even after being down by 24 points. They played hard enough to win the game but two plays contributed greatly to the final outcome (although it only took one of those plays to secure a winning margin). Kyle Parker continues to impress as he gets comfortable in his leadership role. The stats above heavily favor BC but understanding who they played easily answers why they are where they are in the national statistical rankings. They crushed Northeastern of the FCS (old Division II) subdivision 54-0 and then beat Kent State 34-7 who squeaked by Coastal Carolina 18-0 in their first game this year. They have not been challenged this year so I see Clemson showing BC what kind of a team they might be. Defensively they are a sound team but lost their leader and ACC defensive player of the year last year to a rare form of bone cancer. He's taking this year off to pursue treatment. We certainly wish him the best. They do have a very good DE in Alex Albright but Clemson will make adjustment to control him if they need to. Kind of like what they did last week when they moved Chris Hairston from LT to RT to control Derrick Morgan. A great move on Dabo's part. I see Clemson advancing the ball through the air if they need to but Clemson should be able to move the ball on the ground too.

When BC has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

BC Scoring Offense is 11th in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 66th in the nation.
BC Total Offense is 54th in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 75th in the nation.
BC Rushing Offense is 46th in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 100th in the nation.
BC Passing Offense is 65th in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 35th in the nation.

Yes, throw these stats out too. BC has scored a lot of points in two games but, once again, look at the competition. The Clemson defense is going to wreak havoc on the two inexperienced freshman QBs of BC. They will have them running around in the backfield if they try to pass forcing them to do things they don't want to do. I see a few more interceptions coming Clemson's way in this game. They lead the ACC with five already. Kevin Steele has done a great job with this Tiger defense. They are aggressive and play with confidence. BC has a good center and good tackles but the Clemson defensive front can handle these guys. The BC weakness will be at the guard positions so I don't see them running effectively up the middle. If they try to run outside, well…. it's the speed of the Clemson defense that will stop this not to mention that Bowers and Sapp will be waiting for them at the end positions.

Special Teams: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson's special teams continue to do well with Spiller and Ford. Clemson is # 2 in the ACC in kick-off returns (# 16 in the country) and #1 in the ACC in kick-off coverage.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

They are at home after an emotional loss to a top team. The crowd will welcome them with a lot of noise.

Prediction: The bookies have Clemson as 7 pt favorites. I say 10 and that's only because BC scores a late TD.

Clemson 31 BC 21

Go Tigers!!

Rev O