Tuesday December 30, 2008

Bowl Prediction by Rev O

OK, first let me toot my own horn a little. My record this season is 8-4. Not bad considering all that has gone down this season. The score that I predict is just another challenge that I impose on myself. What's important here is who wins and secondly, if they beat the spread. Since Dabo has taken over my record is 5-1. During this period my prediction has also covered the spread. Can I maintain this streak….who knows. If I knew I would be rich. On the surface, it looks as though Clemson should be able to beat Nebraska based on the fact that Nebraska's defense is nowhere near as good as the Gamecock's defense. However, the Nebraska offense is much better than the Gamecock offense but I have trust in the Clemson defense especially in the Clemson pass defense. The Big 12 actually lacks defense in general. The only notable stat is Texas is ranked # 2 in rush defense. Other teams in the conference do OK against the run but not great. They all do poorly against the pass and therefore scoring defense is dismal in this conference. They allow a lot of points to be scored against them as a conference. After watching the bowl games this weekend, I feel more comfortable with my below prediction. The FSU game in particular gave me a good feeling about Clemson. FSU's speed dominated a good run oriented Wisconsin team. Clemson has that same kind of speed and Nebraska has that same kind of Wisconsin run offense, big and tough. Toughness should not be an issue with Clemson. Of the many good qualities that Dabo has instilled in Clemson in a short amount of time, toughness was at the top of his list. Clemson will play very tough and should be able to pass and score points against the Huskers.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 63rd in the nation. Nebraska Scoring Defense is 82nd in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 82nd in the nation. Nebraska Total Defense is 67th in the nation.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 92nd in the nation. Nebraska Rushing Defense is 33rd in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 54th in the nation. Nebraska Pass Defense is 91st in the nation.

Nebraska rush defense is similar to USC stats. Nebraska pass defense is no good at 91st nationally allowing over 235 yds a game. USC's pass defense finished 3rd in the nation allowing 160 yds per game and Clemson was able to gain 199 yds through the air against a good pass defense. Clemson should be able to shred the Husker defense by using the pass. Kelley, Ford, Grisham and Spiller should be able to get open. This will allow Davis and Spiller to have some run options. I can see Harper having a 300 yd passing day. On defense, Nebraska is led by Ndamukong Suh, who has 68 tackles, including 15 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Larry Asante has 64 tackles to rank second on the team. Nebraska has given up 29 points and 362 yards per game so this bodes well for Clemson. Look for Harper to have a good passing day while Davis pounds it between the tackles to keep the Husker defense honest. Play action passes should bring the Nebraska defense in so look for a couple long passing plays to Ford and Kelley.

When Nebraska has the ball: Advantage Clemson

Nebraska Scoring Offense is 18th in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 9th in the nation.
Nebraska Total Offense is 11th in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 16th in the nation.
Nebraska Rushing Offense is 37th in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 37th in the nation.
Nebraska Passing Offense is 14th in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 12th in the nation.

Offensively, Nebraska quarterback Joe Ganz ranks 14th in the nation in passing efficiency and is 13th in total offense. He has completed 69 percent of his passes for 3332 yards and 23 touchdowns while only throwing 10 interceptions. His favorite receiver is Nate Swift, who has 60 receptions for 909 yards and nine scores. Todd Peterson has 58 catches for 690 yards and three touchdowns. But remember, the conference is terrible against defending the pass so these numbers should not be that surprising. Nebraska's top rusher is Roy Helu, Jr., who has 804 yards rushing and a 6.7 average to go with seven rushing touchdowns. Nebraska has 27 touchdowns rushing and 25 passing so far this year so they are very balanced. They are among the nation's leaders in total offense, pass offense and scoring, yet in each instance trail their conference cousins. Nebraska's sore spot - the Huskers have allowed 30 sacks. Maybe The Tigers can take advantage of this and keep Ganz running around without time to think. Another stat to keep in mind, Nebraska was held to less than 30 points only in losses to Missouri and Oklahoma, games the Clemson coaches watch with great interest. Keep the Huskers under 30 and I think we'll be in good shape.

Special Teams: Advantage Clemson

Nebraska is good at punt returns but I have faith our special teams can handle this. They have done very well all year in all categories. The deciding factor - the Spiller factor. Will he break open a kickoff return? I hope so. He's overdue.

Intangibles: Advantage Even

Both teams come into the game on winning streaks and very good second half seasons. Both teams have sold a lot of tickets so fan support should be good for both teams. Nebraska fans travel well. Both teams will be well represented. I have to call it a draw.

Prediction:

It's time to pull out that can of Big Red soda that I got in Miami in 1981 and set it next to the five pack (one can leaked) of Clemson Orange soda and call the odds 5-1. The experts are favoring Clemson by 2.5 pts. As usual, I see it differently. Take Clemson.

CU 31 NE 23

Go Tigers!!

Reverend Optimistic