Updated bowl and playoff projections for Clemson after loss at Notre Dame

Clemson played in the Cheez-It Bowl last year versus Iowa State and last played in the Orange Bowl in 2015.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Sun Nov 06 16:31:24 GMT-04:00 2022

The postseason projections shifted with Clemson's place in the polls on Sunday -- down to No. 12 with the AP and Coaches now -- after the 35-14 loss at Notre Dame on Saturday.

ESPN's dueling picks are in agreement for a Clemson-LSU matchup in Miami's Orange Bowl on Dec. 30, which would presume the Tigers go on to win the ACC.

"It would take a very unlikely set of circumstances for either Clemson or Alabama to get back into playoff consideration," ESPN's Kyle Bonagura wrote. "Alabama would need LSU to fall apart (Arkansas, UAB, Texas A&M remain for the Tigers) to reach the SEC title game -- that's its only path to the playoff. Clemson is still undefeated in the ACC but to be so offensively inept against Notre Dame -- a team that lost to Stanford a few weeks ago -- makes it tough to take the Tigers seriously."

Speaking of those two teams, CBS Sports predicts a Clemson-Alabama meeting in the Orange Bowl, which would renew a series that last saw Clemson win 44-16 for a national title in Jan. 2019.

A rung lower in the postseason tiers, 247Sports projects another Orlando trip and a Dec. 29 Cheez-It Bowl matchup with Baylor.

"A lot changed for the Tigers after Saturday's loss at Notre Dame," said Brad Crawford. "Playoff hopes are on life support and now, Clemson won't likely be a sizable favorite against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game next month. In fact, project the Tar Heels to win the conference against a team that struggling to figure things out at the quarterback spot coming down the stretch."

The Tigers beat Iowa State in last year's Cheez-It Bowl.

After a run playing in the Orange Bowl every other season from 2011-15, the Tigers have not appeared in south Florida since a win over Oklahoma to make the program's first Playoff national championship game.

While the numbers appear a bit dubious, ESPN's FPI still gives Clemson the fifth-best odds to make the Playoff (31.1%) and FiveThirtyEight gives the Tigers the sixth-best chance currently (33%), with a 73% chance by winning out per the model.